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17/09/2010 | State of nation affects Latin America policy

Susan Kaufman Purcell

There are two truisms concerning U.S. policy toward Latin America. The first is that the United States contributes best to Latin America's economic growth by growing its own economy. The second is that Washington's policy toward Latin America is usually a reflection of U.S. domestic politics.

 

Both truisms are relevant to explain why the Obama administration has been unable to have much of a positive impact on Latin America.

The U.S. economic recession preceded the election and inauguration of President Obama. In that sense, the recession was not his fault. Nevertheless, almost two years into the Obama presidency, U.S. economic growth remains anemic. Despite an $819 billion economic stimulus package, national unemployment is stuck at 9.5 percent. In reality, it is higher, since many unemployed people have given up looking for jobs.

The relatively small number of jobs that the stimulus package created or ``saved'' were in the public sector, which is not the most productive part of the economy. The private sector added only 71,000 new jobs in July, well below the 125,000 new jobs that it needs to create monthly just to keep up with population growth, let alone replace the eight million jobs that have been lost during the recession.

Consumers, who have been the driving force of the U.S. economy, have grown increasingly pessimistic and have sharply reduced their spending.

Past recessions have generally ended sooner. What is different this time is the high level of public and private debt in the United States, which has made most Americans afraid of the future and opposed to continued government spending. The federal deficit alone currently equals $1.4 trillion.

Instead of focusing on job creation, President Obama's desire to be a ``transformational'' president, following in the footsteps of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, has led him and the Democratic-controlled Congress to pass a series of major reforms that have created great uncertainty within the private sector, including small businesses, which have traditionally accounted for most new jobs.

Specifically, healthcare and financial reforms, combined with tax reform, including the expected elimination of the Bush administration's tax cuts, have made it very difficult for businesses to figure out their future costs. This makes companies reluctant to add new workers and to make new capital investments. Further exacerbating this problem is President Obama's expressed desire to make it easier for labor unions to organize, as well as his commitment to pass significant climate-change legislation that would have a negative economic impact on producers and consumers of carbon-based energy.

In addition to creating economic uncertainty, which undermines efforts to emerge from the recession, these new or proposed reforms have caused a serious decline in President Obama's poll numbers, mainly because of the desertion of so-called independent voters who voted for the president in 2008. In order to prevent a Republican Party sweep in the upcoming November congressional elections, the president has been forced to appeal to the Democratic Party's traditional base, which includes labor unions, environmentalists, blacks and Hispanics.

This situation has had an impact on Washington's policy toward Latin America. It has made it almost impossible for the administration to conclude pending free-trade agreements with Colombia and Panama because of opposition from labor unions, which fear that such agreements would cost them their jobs. Labor's opposition to free-trade agreements will also make it difficult for the administration to achieve its announced goal of doubling exports within five years in order to grow the economy.

The administration's increased reliance on its Democratic base has also produced political polarization over the issue of immigration reform, which clearly affects Latin America. Specifically, in order to mobilize Hispanic voters in November, the administration has decided to sue the state of Arizona for implementing a new immigration law that it says usurps the sole power of the federal government to set immigration policy. A majority of Americans disagree and support the Arizona law.

This polarized situation reduces the possibility of passing a comprehensive immigration reform in the near future, something that most Latin Americans within and outside of the United States favor.

Latin America, especially South America, is doing quite well economically, despite the U.S. recession. But it could be doing even better if the United States adopted a more job-friendly approach to ending the recession, and avoided policies that undermine that goal.

Miami Herald (Estados Unidos)

 


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