The leading contenders offer variations on the pro-business, open-market policies that have been the Peruvian status quo for two decades. The frontrunner, with 27 percent support in recent polls, is former President Alejandro Toledo, who governed from 2001-2006. A Stanford-educated economist, Toledo negotiated the country's free-trade agreement with the United States and oversaw moderate economic growth, but endured frequent scandals and protests during his presidency. Born into poverty in the Andean highlands, Toledo's indigenous roots have endeared him to many among Peru's indigenous and mestizo majority.

Vying for second place are Luis Castañeda, a two-term mayor of Lima, and Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of ex-president Alberto Fujimori, who won a congressional seat in 2006 and turned 35 -- the minimum age for a presidential candidate -- last May. January polls show that support for both Castañeda and Fujimori hovers around 20 percent.

Castañeda enjoys strong support in Lima, where conditions improved significantly under his administration, though an investigation into the municipality's payment of $12 million to a suspicious company called Comunicore could damage his campaign. Fujimori benefits from her father's reputation for stabilizing Peru's economy and defeating the Shining Path guerrilla, though many associate his presidency with corruption and human rights abuses.

Since no candidate is likely to reach the required 50 percent of the vote on April 10, the two leading vote-getters will likely face a run-off on June 5. There are a total of 11 presidential candidates, and though Toledo, Castañeda and Fujimori are the clear favorites, the Peruvian electorate's history of last-minute decisions makes anything seem possible.

In January 1990, Alberto Fujimori was a little-known university administrator registering less than 4 percent support in opinion polls, but he ended up defeating novelist Mario Vargas Llosa, who had led the polls for months, in the June election, and went on to rule Peru for a decade. He is currently serving a 38-year prison sentence for convictions ranging from abuse of authority to crimes against humanity.

More recently, in 2006, a populist retired military officer named Ollanta Humala nearly repeated Fujimori's meteoric rise from obscurity to the presidency by winning more votes than veteran politician Lourdes Flores and current President Alan García -- who had previously served a term as president -- in the first round. García, whose first presidency is widely regarded as the worst in Peru's history, went on to defeat Humala in the second round. His victory was partially thanks to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, who urged Peruvian's to vote for Humala, stoking fears that Humala would copy Chavez's model of socialism and authoritarian rule.

Despite winning 47 percent in the second round of voting in 2006, Humala's support has dropped to just 10 percent in current polls. According to Martín Tanaka, who heads the political science program at Peru's Catholic University, Humala is unlikely to recapture the voter enthusiasm he enjoyed in 2006.

"Humala had a stroke of luck. More than anything else, he was an invention of voters who longed for something different," said Tanaka. But five years of economic growth that has reduced poverty by 10 percent and improved life for the vast majority of Peruvians doesn't help Humala's campaign. "The country isn't in the mood for radical change. That isn't as seductive as it was five years ago."

Despite Peru's enviable economic growth, García's approval rating has hovered between 20 percent and 30 percent for most of his presidency. The country's constitution prohibits him from running for consecutive re-election, but his party, the APRA, has hardly benefited from the economic boom he has overseen.

Indeed, the APRA lacks a presidential candidate for the current campaign, sinceformer Finance Minister Mercedes Aráoz renounced her candidacy two weeks ago. Aráoz, an independent who nevertheless won the APRA nomination, resigned to protest a decision by Jorge del Castillo -- García's former chief of staff -- to run for Congress despite Del Castillo being under investigation for a case in which two other APRA leaders are accused of accepting bribes to help an oil company win a concession.

According to political commentator and security analyst Fernando Rospigliosi, Castillo might have made a better presidential candidate than Aráoz, but García blocked his nomination in order to maintain control of the party and facilitate another run for the presidency in 2016. Rospigliosi added that even if APRA had fielded a candidate, winning this election would have been extremely difficult because so many party members have been linked to corruption. 

"The population has a massive lack of confidence in all politicians, who they consider inept and corrupt," said Rospigliosi, who lamented that in most cases, that perception is well-founded.

Rospigliosi, who participated in Toledo's last campaign and served as his interior minister, said that while Toledo got off to a good start and probably has the support of many former Humala voters, he could easily squander his current lead. As if to illustrate the point, Toledo set off a political firestorm last week when, in comments made to the foreign press, he indicated that he was open to the decriminalization of drugs and abortion, positions that the vast majority of Peruvians oppose. Toledo quickly retracted his statement, but the incident may have already damaged his campaign.

Rospigliosi noted that Toledo lacks the kind of international campaign advisers who helped him win the 2006 election. Castañeda and Fujimori have both hired foreign consultants who could significantly improve their campaigns.

"A mediocre candidate with a good campaign can win, just as a good candidate can lose with a bad campaign," he said. "The campaign is decisive."

Whoever wins the election, they're almost certain to maintain the pro-investment policies that have facilitated the country's current economic boom, but there is little indication that they'll combat the country's chronic corruption. As much as Peruvians long for better government, they'll no doubt be happy with more of the same.

**David Dudenhoefer is a freelance journalist based in Lima, Peru, from where he covers much of South America.