Introductory Observations

Russia’s foreign policies in the 1990s, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union were marked by deference to the United States and Europe’s major countries. This arose both due to political and economic reasons. Politically, the “Atlanticist” school of foreign policy thought led by then Foreign Minister Koyzrev, viewed Russia as a natural ally of the West. Economically, Russia with its economy in a mess as a result of a sudden switch to a free-market economy was dependent on USA and the West for a resuscitation of the Russian economy. While Russia’s strategic assets in the form of its nuclear weapons and ICBMs arsenal were intact, it could not use its military muscle in diplomacy for countervailing purpose, due to its political and economic dependency on the West. As a result, Russia’s foreign policy was in a retreat from the pursuance of its traditional strategic interests in East Asia, South East Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia. Consequently the United States had a free and unchallenged play in these regions.

The picture in 2006, however, stands greatly changed. Russia’s foreign policy in all these strategic regions today is in a resurgent mode in a bid to regain its traditional influence. It is widely believed that this has been made possible by a combination of three factors: (1) President Putin’s resolute leadership in marked comparison to his two predecessors; (2) President Putin’s firm handling of the economy resulting in a situation where Russia today has amassed US $ 100 billion in foreign exchange reserves; and (3) Russia’s growing oil and gas production and abundant oil revenues due to rise in global oil prices. Oil and gas are increasingly been used by Russia as political tools. Russia’s resurgence in its foreign policies will emerge clearly from a brief analysis of its initiatives in different strategic regions of the world, as outlined below. Its impact on the United States would also be examined.

Russia’s Primacy to a “Look East” Foreign Policy

In the last year or so Russia’s primacy to a “Look East” foreign policy has been more strikingly visible. It is not that Russia has given up on Europe; what is clear is that Russia is now according over-riding priority to East Asia in terms of its foreign policy initiatives.

The following developments in the last year or so, point to the above:

Russia-China strategic partnership stands greatly intensified. With the border dispute agreement in place, both nations have available military resources so relieved for other tasks.

Russia and China conducted the first ever large scale joint military exercises in East Asia to which military observers from all over the world were invited, except from the United States.

Russia and China have coordinated their efforts to make the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation into more of a regional military bloc. This has given them confidence to demand that the United States sets a timetable for withdrawal of its military presence from Central Asian Republics.

Russia through all these foreign policy initiatives is indulging in politico-military signaling to the United States that it intends along with China to change the existing balance of power of the last decade in this region. Japan is the only remaining steadfast American ally in the region along with Taiwan.

Russia Gaining Foothold in South East Asia

The recently concluded East Asia Summit meeting held in Kuala Lumpur is a visible pointer to Russia’s growing importance in South East Asia and to be precise ASEAN countries. While the United States was refused an invite to East Asia Summit (EAS), Russia was invited as an observer, despite strong opposition from Australia and New Zealand.

President Putin personally attended the summit. Russia and President Putin’s stature stood greatly enhanced when on the sidelines of EAS, the ASEAN countries felt compelled to hold ASEAN plus Russia discussions. ASEAN increasingly views that Russia has to be taken into account in its strategic calculations and multilateral confabulations.

Russia Re-kindles its Strategic Partnership in South Asia With India

The Russia-India strategic partnership stood greatly devalued during the Gorbachev and Yeltsin regimes. Their policies had started to reflect American and Western formulations on South Asia.

In the last year or so, the two Summit meetings in New Delhi and Moscow and the Indian Defence Ministers visit to Moscow in October 2005 has re-injected value and substantial substance to the Russia-India strategic partnership.

India has publicly stated in 2005 that Russia would continue to be India’s prime strategic partner and the prime source of its major weapon systems. Late last year, Russian Army troops and Russian naval ships carried out their first joint military exercises in India.

Russia’s President has expressed publicly his country’s support for India’s candidature for the Permanent Membership of the United Nations Security Council.

Russia’s re-kindling of its strategic partnership with India and India’s positive response to the same is noteworthy when viewed against the backdrop of India’s emerging strategic partnership with USA. That India feels it imperative to continue with a Russian strategic partnership is reflective of Russia’s growing resurgence and India’s note of it.

Russia Re-establishes Position in West Asia Strategic Calculus

The United States and the European countries need increasingly obliged to incorporate Russia’s support to rein-in Iran’s nuclear programme and this is reflective of Russia’s success in re-establishing itself as a key player in the West Asian strategic calculus. Russia enjoys a strategic partnership with Iran - the region’s pre-dominant nation and emerging regional power.

Russia also enjoys good relations with Syria. It also has a good working relationship with America’s prime ally in West Asia, namely Israel.

The Russia-Iran-Syria strategic partnership is West Asia’s northern and most over-arching strategic relationship which spans from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf and Afghanistan.

Russia in relation to Iran today has achieved what it was attempting to do for the major portion of the 20th Century. Iran is a solid Russian foothold in West Asia and critically in the Gulf Region.

Russia Reclaims Central Asia

Following 9/11 especially, Russia was permissive in allowing the United States to establish a military presence in a couple of Central Asian Republics to prosecute its war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Russia hoped that in return, USA and the West would be supportive of Russia’s campaign against the Islamic Jehadis in Chechnya.

Russia soon realized that United States was selective in its approaches to combat global terrorism. The Chechnya terrorism against Russia was perceived by USA as a separate strategic blip on the American radar.

In the last year, Russia’s resurgence has been successful in reclaiming its strategic pre-eminence in its former republics in Central Asia. Uzbekistan has already made the United States to withdraw its airbases and Russia under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation along with China has called publicly for USA to spell out a time-table for withdrawal from other republics.

Russia is also actively working out a new format to replace the organisation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) formed in the wake of the dissolution of USSR. The aim is to establish a new web of inter-connected bilateral security relationships.

Russia Uses Oil and Gas as Political Tools

Russia conclusively proved recently in respect to Ukraine that it would use the supply of Russian oil and gas as political tools of diplomacy to further its national security interests.

What was ostensibly projected as a price war of oil and gas supplies to Ukraine was a cover to send a political message that Russia would not countenance the Ukraine or its neighbours to further American strategic interests at the expense of Russia. Europe dependent similarly on Russian oil and gas supplies got also similar messages in tandem.

In East Asia, the current prime focus of Russia’s foreign policy resurgence, this strategic reality is also dawning on the regions major countries – China and Japan. Both are vying and competing for Russian pipelines to East Asia. In the process, both China and Japan are agreeable to investing billions of dollars in Russia, in return.

Even smaller countries are currying favour with Russia on the same count. The Philippines President’s open support and demand that Russia be accepted as a full member of EAS is seen as a step prompted by similar impulses; that is in lieu of financial investments, which they lack, the smaller countries are willing to extend political support to Russia.

Russia’s Resurgence and its Strategic Impact on the United States

The United States all along has feared Russia’s resurgence. That Russia’s foreign policy resurgence is focusing on East Asia would eventually turn into a special concern for the United States. The United States has enjoyed a uni-polar predominance in the Pacific and East Asia for over a decade. That increasingly would be questioned by Russia and more by China in the coming years. An intensifying Russia-China strategic partnership would make the impact even that more ominous.

The United States would have equally disturbing concerns at the other end of the spectrum i.e. West Asia and particularly the Gulf Region. Russia’s resurgence and its evolving security relationships could unravel the American strategic architecture in West Asia.

Concluding Observations

Freed from the responsibilities of the imperial overstretch of the extended erstwhile Soviet empire, the new Russia is far more compact and amenable to effective strategic management. With its strategic assets intact, the economy was the only major constraint in Russia’s exercising its traditional countervailing role to balance the United States.

The Russian economy witnessing a revival especially with the inflow of growing financial revenues from gas and oil, a resurgence in Russian foreign policy was only a matter of time. That has finally taken place now and the resurgence is now visible.

Russian can be expected to growingly challenge the existing uni-polar dominance of the United States in East Asia and West Asia especially, with spill-over effects on contiguous regions. Some would like to argue that a countervailing power in the form of a resurgent Russia is good for the health of the international system.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group.)