The Belarussian ruble, together with the economy as a whole, has crashed. The same fate may await the Russian ruble and economy within five to six years.
The Russian economy today operates in exactly the same way as the Spanish
economy of the 17th century, when two-thirds of the country was made up of the
aristocracy, state officials, monks and various other social parasites. But
Spain’s colonies pumped so much gold and silver into state coffers that there
was enough wealth to spread around to keep the Spanish economy above water.
Similarly, in Russia two-thirds of the people don’t work. But the country’s
enormous oil and gas helps spread the wealth around.
The only problem is that the constant flow of petrodollars into Russia fuels
inflation. In contrast to 17th-century Spain, Russia has two mechanisms enabling
it to keep those petrodollars out of circulation: One is capital flight, and the
other is the stabilization fund.
According to official Central Bank estimates, $38
billion in capital left the country in 2010. But that figure is heavily
understated. The Central Bank defines “capital flight” as money that was
initially deposited in rubles or dollars in a Russian account and later
transferred abroad.
For example, if Rosneft
sells oil at one price domestically and at another price overseas through its
intermediary company Gunvor, that is not considered capital flight because no
money was lost, only oil.
Clearly, the amount of oil revenues being laundered is much higher than what
is being reported. The Central Bank’s figure of $38 billion lost to capital
flight and President Dmitry Medvedev’s figure of 1
trillion rubles ($36 billion) embezzled in state contracts do not jibe with each
other.
The second way to sterilize extra money is the stabilization fund.
The country’s real budget is now divided between the federal budget and the
stabilization fund. The budget is closed to public scrutiny, and nobody has a
clear idea how taxpayers’ money is being spent. We only know the figures of the
consolidated budget, and we know that expenditures are growing enormously —
particularly on state subsidies, social services, the Glonass navigation system,
preparations for the Olympic Games in Sochi and defense, where one in every five
rubles is embezzled, according to the military’s chief prosecutor.
Only two years ago, the government was able to balance its budget with oil
prices at $64 per barrel. A year later, $80 per barrel was required. According
to analysts, the 2012 budget will be balanced only if oil reaches $120 per
barrel, and this is not even counting the bottomless pit of the pension
fund.
So if state expenditures are not covered by the budget itself, the government
can always dip into the stabilization fund. This means opening up the money
faucet and triggering even more inflation.
Inflation is rising, and the ruble is gaining strength. But in four to five
years, those unearned petrodollars that are flooding — and sinking — the economy
thanks to runaway corruption will lead to the ruble’s collapse.
Under Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s model, it is
impossible to stop the corruption, and its negative effects can only be
mitigated through capital flight. This could easily result in a revolution or,
at the very least, serious social unrest.