It’s almost as if nothing has changed. Back from chemotherapy in Cuba, President Hugo Chavez is again singing on television, publicly ruminating over 19th-century conspiracies against Venezuela’s independence hero and skewering his opponents with colorful barbs.
“I have come back better than I left, thanks to God,” a
beaming Chavez said last weekend.
But the former army paratrooper, who celebrated his 57th
birthday Thursday from the balcony of the presidential palace, has been visibly
weakened by two operations in Havana and his first chemotherapy
session since announcing last month that he has cancer. And after years of
setbacks, his political adversaries sense that in next year’s presidential
election, they might be in a position to get the upper hand against a leader
who has dominated this country for a dozen years.
In a poll released last week by the Caracas firm
Datanalisis, the governor of the centrally located state of Miranda, Henrique
Capriles, nearly tied Chavez, 37 percent to 39 percent, when prospective voters
were asked which of the two they would choose.
Capriles is using his position, and the coffers he
controls as governor, to his advantage, surging ahead of others in Venezuela’s
often-fractious opposition movement who want to challenge Chavez.
The telegenic 39-year-old hammers away at the
government’s inability to control rampant crime and inflation, as well as what
he calls the mismanagement of an economy that has been South America’s laggard
despite its huge oil reserves.
But it is in campaign swings through poor districts, such
as largely rural Las Mercedes in the mountains south of Caracas, where
Capriles’s message has had particular resonance. Wearing a white tennis shirt
and baseball cap on a recent day, he arrived by helicopter at a ballfield,
where he was immediately swamped by poor villagers.
Some asked about jobs. Others wanted help with home
repairs. He spoke to as many as he could before leading a pack of supporters
and aides, clipboards in hand, on a sprint along rutted, unpaved roads dotted
with cinder-block homes, the pastel-colored walls fading in the tropical sun.
“If we can resolve these cases, and then get to others,
we’ll resolve them,” he said in his gravelly voice, as a mob of residents
surrounded him.
Handing out vouchers for residents here to renovate their
homes quickly won him points from Julia Pacheco, 35, who received a hug from
Capriles in her living room.
“Very excellent, marvelous. He’s very good, Governor
Capriles,” Pacheco said, as she held up a voucher he had given her.
Another homeowner, Alfredo Ascanio, 54, said Caprile’s
message was “admirable, admirable; this is what we need, a president who looks
after the people, not just himself.”
A ‘new Chavez’
In an interview, Capriles said government interventions
in the economy, especially the Chavez administration’s seizure of land and
nationalization of companies, have hobbled Venezuela. He also talked about the
need for business-friendly policies to generate jobs. His model for Venezuela
is Miranda, where his governorship has been popular.
“In Miranda, we do not promise, we do,” said Capriles,
who tries to stress the technocratic merits of his candidacy. “We can show
results in education, in health, in home construction. We have a vision of what
employment should be.”
Still, there is another side to Capriles, political
analysts say, one not all that dissimilar from Chavez. Capriles has a gift for
rhetorical flourishes and a penchant for relying on handouts to connect with
voters.
“The only doubt I have about him is that he sometimes
likes to be a ‘new Chavez,’ but from the opposition,” said Carlos Romero, a
lecturer and a political scientist at the Central University of Venezuela. “The
only way to win the election is to present himself as different from Chavez, as
a leader who is committed to democracy, as a leader who is serious, as a leader
who is not a demagogue, as a leader who is not a populist.”
Chavez, to be sure, remains Venezuela’s most influential
and popular politician.
Last week’s Datanalisis poll, for instance, showed that
Chavez’s approval rating remained at 50 percent. The poll’s director, Luis
Vicente Leon, said respondents still choose Chavez when they are presented with
a scenario in which the president faces a group of leading opponents.
“Chavez is the president, everybody knows him,” Leon
said. “He has the money, he has the political party, he has the Internet, he
has the media control, he has everything.”
The question, though, is whether Chavez will make a full
recovery in the months ahead of the December 2012 vote.
In an interview published Monday in the state newspaper
Correo del Orinoco, Chavez said he was “resolved to reach 2031” in power, which
would mean three more six-year terms.
“On a personal level,” he told the newspaper, “I tell you
I have never thought for even an instant of retiring from the presidency.”
A flurry of activity
In a flurry of activity this week, Chavez sought to
demonstrate that he was still in command, even of the minor details of governing.
He announced Venezuelan famine relief for Somalia, said
the state oil company would ramp up production, and oversaw meetings with his
top aides. He also appeared as feisty as ever, mocking the Obama administration
over the debt crisis and using his favorite put-down to describe his foes,
calling them “squalid ones.”
He even took time out to tell state television in a phone
call that Simon Bolivar, the country’s liberator and the president’s guiding
light, had been murdered in 1830, though a year-long scientific study of his
remains came up with no evidence of foul play.
While Chavez has yet to reveal what kind of cancer he
has, he told Venezuelans this week that he would undergo a second and third
phase of chemotherapy. Speaking to state television this week, he discussed the
side effects.
“Surely within not many days, you will see a bald
Chavez,” the president said. “Do you remember Yul Brynner? I’ll be a bit like
Yul Chavez. My hair is going to start to fall out.”