There is enormous uncertainty over the outcome of the presidential race, owing to a high level of voter apathy and a highly fragmented political system. With no contender polling more than 25% of voter support and at least 40% of the public undecided, the contest is wide open. A run-off election is expected in November.

Three major presidential candidates stand out from the field of eight or so who have announced their intention to run (the registration deadline is August 15th). León Roldós, a former vice-president (1981-84), is running under the banner of the Red Etica y Democracia party, and is supported by Izquierda Democrática (ID) and a number of small, moderate left-wing parties. He has consistently polled the highest support levels, now at around 23% according to the latest Cedatos/Gallup survey (conducted in mid-July).

Cynthia Viteri, who represents the conservative Guayaquil-based Partido Social Cristiano (PSC), has 16% support, while a maverick left-wing independent, Rafael Correa, trails behind with 11%. All other candidates garner only single-digit support levels.

Noboa withdraws

An independent businessman, Alvaro Noboa, had been in a relatively strong position in all public opinion surveys carried out this year (having also run for the presidency in 1998 and 2002) but, in spite of sustained and well-funded efforts, was not able to raise his support beyond the 15-20% level. His supporters are largely in the coastal areas. In a surprise decision he pulled out of the race in July. This could have significant repercussions for the election result, hinging on whether his decision is final and, if so, to which candidate his backers turn.

Mr Noboa could re-enter the race if he secures a coalition agreement with the Partido Sociedad Patriótica (PSP, the party of the former president, Lucio Gutiérrez) and the Partido Roldosista Ecuatoriano (PRE, the party of an exiled former president, Abdalá Bucaram). Research suggests that Mr Gutiérrez is backed by around 15% of the electorate, mostly in highland towns and cities and the Amazon regions. With such an alliance Mr Noboa would stand a strong chance of jumping into second place. Mr Gutiérrez, who was ousted by Congress in April 2005, has been banned by the Supreme Electoral Council from running in the October race.

In any case, no candidate will be able secure the 50% of votes necessary to win outright in the first round, leading to a run-off vote in November between the two highest-polling rivals.

Candidates struggle

Although the withdrawal of Mr Noboa removes one of the front-runners from contention, all the remaining candidates are struggling with problems that damage their popular standing. Mr Roldós's decision to enter into a coalition with the ID party has failed to boost his overall popularity. Divisions within the ID have deepened in recent months, reducing the party's appeal and negatively affecting the Roldós candidacy.

Ms Viteri, who is from the coast, has struggled to boost her support levels in the highlands, where her close association with a PSC former president, León Febres Cordero, is a serious hindrance. On August 2nd Ms Viteri picked a Quito-based businessman, Ernesto Davalos Salazar, as her running mate in an attempt to overcome this weakness and bridge the gap between Ecuador’s largest cities, Guayaquil and Quito. But Ms Viteri is also weighed down by internal divisions within the PSC, with supporters of the mayor of Guayaquil, Jaime Nebot, fearing that if she wins, Mr Febres Cordero may use her to weaken Mr Nebot's position.

The third-place candidate, Mr Correa, is trying to attract the anti-globalisation, populist vote. His charisma could propel him to victory if he were to make it to the run-off. But he has been hurt by the refusal of the ethnic-based Pachakutik movement to endorse his candidacy. Pachakutik—which represents the country’s indigenous communities—has chosen instead to back its own nominee, Luis Macas, even though he is unlikely to make an impact in the October election. (He polled just 1% support in the Cedatos survey.)

Many Ecuadoreans’ deep-seated mistrust of and disenchantment with the political establishment make it possible that a charismatic outsider could enter and make a strong showing in the race. One such outsider is Freddy Elhers, a popular television journalist who announced in early August that he would jump into the fray. However, it is unlikely that he could harness enough support to reach the second round.

Stability still distant

Prospects of a stable government emerging from the election are slim. None of the candidates can hope to be supported by a legislative majority, forcing the next president to build and then maintain coalition support in Congress. The legislature will remain highly fragmented and the executive’s ability to govern effectively will be compromised. This will hinder progress on the reforms that are needed to strengthen Ecuador’s weak political institutions, tackle public-sector corruption, raise the efficiency of the state and improve the business climate.

Moreover, with Ecuador enjoying a windfall in oil export revenues thanks to high world prices, there will be substantial pressure on the next government to spend more on social projects, healthcare and education. This will make adherence to fiscal discipline difficult. However, inadequate institutional oversight will dilute any benefits of such public spending, and public discontent with the political system is likely to remain widespread.

The threat of popular mobilisation will compound the governance challenge and make political de-stabilisation an ever-present risk. The next leader could well be forced out of office prematurely, as has occurred with several of Ecuador’s presidents in recent years. No president has completed his term since 1996.