To borrow a phrase from Winston Churchill, the United States may not be at the beginning of the end of its presidential campaign, but it is at the end of the beginning. After a long, tumultuous series of primaries and caucuses, the two major parties have settled on their presumptive nominees, to be confirmed at each party’s convention this summer. Now American voters must look “under the hood” of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, exploring both candidates’ policies and inclinations in detail, before making their choice in November.
Thus
far, foreign and security policy have received more attention than is normal
for the candidate-selection phase of a U.S. election, in part because the
domestic economy is in relatively sound shape and much of the world is in
turmoil. This makes world events more immediate to the American electorate.
Clinton in particular has stressed foreign and national security policy,
reflecting her time as first lady, a U.S. senator and, most recently, secretary
of state. While Trump has no background in foreign or national security policy,
he did use it to distinguish himself during the Republican primaries, staking
out an approach very different from the conventional ones of his opponents.
But even given this attention to foreign and national security policy, the two
candidates have only provided an outline of their positions. Clinton’s leanings
are better known from her time in the Senate and State Department. She has
added a few campaign speeches on world affairs, and her campaign website
follows the tradition for U.S. elections by indicating
her priorities and general perspective. Trump, with no political leadership
experience, a campaign website that only includes asketchy
description of a few policy positions, and at best a disconnected mélange
of ideas in campaign speeches, is harder to gauge.
This makes it imperative for the media to press the candidates to explain where
they stand on foreign policy and national security. The biggest issues will be
the size and structure of the U.S. military; the conditions under which it
might be committed to combat; America’s relationship with competitors like
China, Russia and Iran; and the conflict with transnational extremism,
particularly the so-called Islamic State.
While these are vital concerns, other ones may turn out to be just as
important. If tradition holds, the biggest security challenge for the next
president will be one that was little discussed during the campaign, like the
Balkans for Bill Clinton; the conflict with al-Qaida and the intervention in
Iraq for George W. Bush; and the conflict in Syria and Iraq, and the rise of
the Islamic State for Barack Obama. This means the media must push beyond
today’s headline issues and explore hypothetical situations to get a sense of
the candidates’ instincts.
Three issues in particular may rise to the fore for the next president and are
therefore worth examining now. One is whether the United States would
participate in international peacekeeping and stabilization operations. At
first glance, this might seem a strange question. To many security experts and
policymakers, the United States has written off peacekeeping. But reality has a
nasty way of compelling great powers to do things they’d rather not. There is
simply no chance that transnational Islamic extremism can be eradicated in
places like Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Afghanistan without an international
stabilization effort. Local security forces will never be able to do this on
their own. Relying on them to do so means the extremists will continue to find
safe haven and operating space. Given this, the two presidential candidates
must be pressed on whether they would commit the United States to a
multinational peacekeeping and stabilization operation if that was what it took
to fully defeat the Islamic State, or if the government of a nation like North
Korea collapsed.
If
tradition holds, the biggest security challenge for the next president will be
one that was little discussed during the campaign.
A
second question for the two candidates is how they would deal with friendly
dictators. This challenge has confounded the United States since the Cold War.
When the Soviet threat was at its peak, American policymakers gritted their
teeth and worked with anti-communist despots. Following the 1979 overthrow of
the shah of Iran and later the demise of the Soviet Union, Washington backed
off from this practice. But the problem has returned in spades with the
conflict against transnational Islamic extremism. Hence the candidates must
explain just how deeply they would embrace regimes like the current Egyptian
military dictatorship. Even more importantly, the candidates must spell out the
degree to which they would cooperate with Iran and the sociopathic Syrian
regime of Bashar al-Assad if that’s what it takes to defeat the Islamic State
and al-Qaida. Is the enemy of my enemy my friend, as at the height of the Cold
War, or are those days past?
A third important question is how the candidates would respond to cyberattacks
on the United States that target the government or the private sector. Clinton
at least has staked out a position on this, but she has not explained whether
she would consider a large scale cyberattack an act of war, and whether she
would use the U.S. military in a defensive or offensive way in such a scenario.
As on most national security issues, Trump has given no indication of his
position.
There may be other defining foreign and national security questions, but asking
the candidates these three would be a solid start. How they respond would give
Americans insight as they vote for the country’s future. It is not yet clear
whether Trump’s highly unorthodox positions are the bow wave of a revolution in
American foreign and national security policy, or more a method to attract
attention. Pressing the candidates to flesh out their strategies, one highly
unorthodox and one consummately orthodox, is the best and perhaps the only way
for the American public to make an informed choice in November.
Steven Metz is the author of “Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy.” His weekly
WPR column, Strategic Horizons, appears every Friday. You can follow
him on Twitter @steven_metz.