“Bibi” Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister, will remain in post for another 18 months.
All this
happens while “Benny” Gantz – former Chief of Staff of Tsahal from February
2011 to February 2015, and son of a Jewish woman who escaped from the Bergen
Belsen concentration camp and survived the Holocaust – will start off by
serving as deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister in the next Israeli
government.
Based on
the deal signed, he will later take over as Prime Minister in October 2021 for
another 18 months.
Binyamin
Gantz graduated from Bahad 1, the Israeli Officer School of the Israeli Defence
Forces (IDF), and was made a company commander in the Paratrooper Brigade. He
rose steadily through the ranks and led several military structures, including
the Shaldag Special
Air Force Unit,
the Judea and Samaria Division, as well as the Northern Command. He
graduated in History from the University of Tel Aviv and got a Master’s degree
in Political Science from the University of Haifa, as well as a Master’s degree
in national resource management from the U.S. National Defense University.
In modern
times, the great statesmen were often also –
and above all – great military leaders: just think of Charles De Gaulle,
Winston Churchill or even an extraordinary figure like General Marshall, the
theorist of the post-war economic plan for Europe named after him. After
retiring from the Army, Gantz founded the Pnima movement along with other
colleagues.
The
Pnima executives include Rabbi Shai Piron, as well as many former generals of
Tsahal, senior officers,
magistrates and important businessmen.
In 2018,
Gantz ran for the first time for a seat at the Knesset, with an alliance named
Hosen L’Ysrael, literally “Israel Resilience”.
The
current government deal signed between Netanyahu and Gantz provides for an
accurate 50% division of government positions between the two sides, namely
Gantz’s new Kahol Lavan and Netanyahu’s Likud parties.
Gantz’
alliance can also count on the often vociferous Labour Party as an ally.
Gantz
has also announced that it will appoint an Arab Israeli, not member of the
Knesset, as Minister and that, however, he will not appoint any vice-
Ministers.
The
Likud Party has been assigned the post of Speaker of the Knesset, that will
most likely be taken over by Yariv Levin, a man who has always been very close
to Netanyahu.
Furthermore,
based on the government deal signed, Netanyahu himself has the right to appoint four
Ambassadors to important Missions
and positions. Probably these new diplomats will be above all important members
of the Likud Party and the posts already envisaged by Netanyahu in the deal
signed with Gantz could be the Israeli Ambassadors to the United Nations, Great
Britain, France and Australia.
Each of
the two signatories
of the government
deal will have
the Chairmanship of seven Knesset Parliamentary Committees.
The
so-called ‘Norwegian law’ will continue to apply, It is a law which enables
Ministers, deputy Ministers and government members to quit the Knesset, thus
enabling the next candidates on their party’s list to enter, but permits them
to return to the legislature if they quit the government.
Five
members of Gantz’s coalition, Kahol Lavan, and only two members of the Likud
party are expected to resign in line with this “Norwegian law”.
So far,
however, Gantz’s Parliamentary group has not liked the deal with Netanyahu at
all.
Gantz
himself said that some of his colleagues would “prefer a fourth election rather
than a compromise
deal”. This applies
to two of
his important members of
Parliament, namely Yair Lapid, former founder and leader of Yesh Atid, the
“Blue and White” Alliance, and Moshe Ya’alon, former Chief of Staff of the
Israeli Defence Forces.
Another
bilateral agreement reached by the two leaders is that no legislation unrelated
to the fight against the coronavirus pandemic will be brought before
Parliament for a
period of six
months without full agreement between the two political
groups.
For his
part, Netanyahu will anyway be allowed to advance legislation to annex Jewish
settlements and other land in the occupied West Bank that the Palestinians
already consider part of a future State, in line with the peace plan unveiled
by U.S: President Trump last January.
Therefore,
Gantz has already lost a good number of his supporters, within his party and
his coalition, former militants and parliamentarians who do not accept any deal
with Netanyahu that they believe is only aimed at temporarily sparing
the Likud leader
the experience of a
trial that is expected to be long and far from easy for
“Bibi” Netanyahu.
Gantz
maintains, instead, that in very difficult times, with a pandemic already
hitting the Jewish State, it is necessary to be united, even with the Likud
leader, and immediately give Israel a new government in full swing.
The U.S.
Ambassador to Israel has already said he is “delighted” by the agreement
between the two leaders, while the Palestinian Authority Prime Minister,
Mohammed Shtayyeh, spoke of an Israeli government devoted solely to the annexation
of the aforementioned West Bank’s territories.
Netanyahu,
however, has stated he will propose legislation for the annexation of the West
Bank as of June 1, 2020, but only if there is explicit support from the U.S.
Administration.
A clear
result reached is that Netanyahu will easily have the possibility to postpone
the next Court hearings.
His
trial, however, will start officially on May 24, 2020.
The
current Public Prosecutor will remain in office only for the next six months.
The
judges have already agreed with the government that there will be no major
events during the coronavirus pandemic.
Furthermore,
again based on the government deal signed, Netanyahu will be entitled to an
official residence as Prime Minister.
It
should be recalled that Gantz broke the unity of his “Blue and White” coalition
to propose a government deal to the Likud leader, mainly based on the need to
curb the pandemic and put an end to the sequence of inconclusive elections –
three in a very short lapse of time – which would never lead to a clear winner.
But it
was precisely Gantz who run his last election campaign in March on the very
issue of Netanyahu’s definitive exclusion from power.
Furthermore,
“Bibi” Netanyahu has largely stopped even the legislation designed to improving
Israelis’ protection from the coronavirus pandemic, since he has never asked
for the creation of a real majority at the Knesset.
Again
based on the government deal signed, the next six months will be fully devoted
to the legislation designed to tackling the coronavirus pandemics, while any
other political issue to be submitted to Parliament will require a prior
agreement between Gantz and Netanyahu.
Some
people – even in the media circles that are the most polemical in attacking him
– have said that, despite the loss of some support within his coalition, Gantz
has anyway shown strong leadership, which is particularly appreciated by the
Israeli voters.
According
to the deal signed, Gantz will replace Netanyahu as Prime Minister in 18
months’ time.
Are we
sure, however, that there will be no impediment? Possibly a law to be voted
immediately before the change in Premiership – of which later the opponent may
be accused on grounds of dirty play and moves within the Knesset? Or a
Parliamentary conflict on some issues, which is always possible?
Or again
the pressure of left-wing voters within Gantz’s coalition, precisely pushing
him to leave the alliance? No one can currently predict it.
As
already mentioned, in the next government, Gantz’s allies will have the Foreign
and the Justice Ministries, while Netanyahu’s party will have the Finance
Ministry and the post of Speaker of the Knesset.
Obviously “Bibi”
Netanyahu’s politicking experience
cannot be compared with Gantz’s.
The latter has just been elected and has no strong base in Parliament. Hence
the manoeuvring ability of the Likud leader will likely be much greater than
the ability of the former opposition leader, while the coalition created by
Gantz is, in fact, in a phase of internal break- up.
However,
the date of trial for the current Likud leader is certain, namely May 24, 2020.
Nevertheless,
although Netanyahu has ultimately not managed to pass legislation protecting
him from criminal proceedings, he is still indirectly very powerful, also as
far as the judiciary is concerned.
Again
based on the deal signed with Gantz, he has the possibility of vetoing the
appointment of the next Attorney General and of the Public Prosecutor, and can
also choose half of the members of the Parliamentary technical committee that
selects judges.
Has
“Bibi” already won? We cannot predict it yet. Probably, his heaviest card will
still be the annexation of some areas of the West Bank areas and- as he said
during his election campaign – also of the Jordan Valley.
It is
also likely that, once the trial pressure on Netanyahu has eased, the
government may even be able to go on peacefully.
Clearly
all the thoughts of the Likud leader are focused on the issue of his judicial
future.
Polls
show that the citizens are happy to finally have a government, but there are
subtle signs of rejection of the unusual large size of government, with 32
Ministers that will increase to 36, and 16 deputy Ministers – a huge government
that is unprecedented in Israel’s history.
It
should be recalled that, when Gantz started negotiations with Netanyahu, he had
been recommended and then almost appointed as Prime Minister by 61 of the 120
members of the Knesset, and he himself was the leader of a coalition made up of
33 MPs.
Now that
he is only the opposition leader, Gantz – who has been left alone by some of
his supporters, such as Ya’alom and Lapid – has a party of his own that counts
only 15 MPs.
He
enjoys the support of two Labour activists, namely Amir Peretz and Itzhik
Shmuli, although we do not know to what extent this support is stable.
Nevertheless, there is not yet any clear definition of “equal representation”
between Gantz’s and
Netanyahu’s teams –
equality to which, however,
reference is often made in the deal.
Furthermore,
if Netanyahu is found guilty, new elections are the only solution envisaged by
the deal.
We can
also wonder what would happen if the criminal Court extended its proceedings
beyond 18 months. No one knows.
Moreover,
if the Likud leader does not want to hand over power at the end of the 18
months, he could always call new elections. He can do so.
Again
based on the deal, however, in this case Gantz would immediately become Prime
Minister and keep his post for only three months. The procedure, however, shows
great signs of unconstitutionality.
There is
also the issue of the 1,800,000 Israeli Arabs who have the right to vote, and
could even be sensitive to Netanyahu’ sirens. Netanyahu is the only one who
could alone silence the religious parties that have always supported him and
could still support him, if the Likud leader widened his government basis, with
one of his manoeuvres, possibly even supporting an economic agreement
favourable to a part of the Arab voters in Israel.
Furthermore,
it is good to see how the tension on the figure of Netanyahu will be able to
mobilize both the religious parties and the political area that has always
supported the Likud party and could probably be gathered again by somebody
linked to Netanyahu and acting in his name.
It is
therefore a complex agreement, much of which will be decided by the
quality of the
legislation designed to
fight against the
coronavirus pandemic and by both signatories’ Parliamentary politicking.
***Giancarlo
Elia Valori, Advisory Board Co-chair Honoris Causa Professor Giancarlo Elia
Valori is an eminent Italian economist and businessman. He holds prestigious
academic distinctions and national orders. Mr. Valori has lectured on
international affairs and economics at the world’s leading universities such as
Peking University, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Yeshiva
University in New York. He currently chairs “International World Group”, he is
also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese
giant HNA Group. In 1992 he was appointed Officier de la Légion d’Honneur de la
République Francaise, with this motivation: “A man who can see across borders
to understand the world” and in 2002 he received the title “Honorable” of the
Académie des Sciences de l’Institut de France. “