The security threat posed by Russia is difficult for the West to manage as, in our view and that of many others, it appears fundamentally nihilistic. Russia seems to see foreign policy as a zero-sum game: any actions it can take which damage the West are fundamentally good for Russia.
Britain is abuzz today with news of the long-awaited release of the Parliament’s
report [.pdf]
into Russian meddling in British politics. The report is the work of
the Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee. Since 2013, the
Committee has been appointed to oversee the work of Britain’s
intelligence agencies. Almost all of its meetings are conducted behind
closed doors, and its reports are vetted by the spy agencies prior to
release. By law, the Committee cannot make its reports public without
previously submitting them for approval to the Office of the Prime
Minister.
In the
past it has taken no more than 10 days for the Committee’s reports to be
approved by the prime minister. This particular report, however, which concerns
—among other things— Russian meddling into British politics, took considerably
longer. It was given to the prime minister on October 17. But by November 6,
when parliament was dissolved in preparation for the election that brought
Boris Johnson to power, it had not been approved. It finally came out
yesterday, after numerous and inexplicable delays. Many speculated that the
government did not want to deal with the uncomfortable conclusions in the
report.
Like all
reports of its kind, this one will be politicized and used by Britain’s major
parties against their rivals. But behind the politicking, the report makes for
uncomfortable reading indeed. It shows that, not just British, but Western
intelligence agencies as a whole, remain incapable of combating online
psychological operations from foreign state actors —primarily Russia— aiming to
influence Western politics on a mass scale.
This is
ironic, because Western spy agencies used to be really good on Russia. In fact,
during the Cold War that is all they did. Many years have passed since then,
and many leading Western experts on Russia have either retired or died.
Additionally, the attacks of September 11, 2001, turned the attention of
Western spy agencies to terrorism by groups like al-Qaeda, and away from
Russia. Meanwhile, back in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin, a former KGB
officer, rebuilt the state and sought to reclaim Russia’s lost international
prestige. This plan includes a page from the old KGB playbook: destabilizing
Western nations through psychological operations that accentuate existing
extremist tendencies from the left or right.
The
British Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee’s report on Russia
shows that the Internet, and social media in particular, have been major
conduits of Russia’s psychological operations in Britain. This means that
America’s 2016 presidential elections formed but a single step in Russia’s
broader tactic for political destabilization of key Western nations.
Additionally, whereas Western intelligence agencies have used social media to
collect information, the Russians have developed an expertise in using these
platforms to influence politics on a mass scale. The lack of understanding of
social media dynamics by Western spies, who are usually older and not
online-savvy, has added to their inability to stop Russian advances.
More
importantly, the report offers clear evidence that British spy agencies —and to
some extent those in leadership positions— have underestimated the degree to
which Britain has been a target of Russian intelligence in recent years. This
is an important realization in two ways: first, it shows that the Russian spy
services have the manpower and technical capability to target many countries at
once —something they had lost for a while in the 1990s. Second, it shows that
other countries should take heed. If Britain has been a systematic target,
chances are that Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Canada, and many others, have
also been subjected to Russia’s online influence operations.
The
report also shows that British spies have been so overwhelmed by this problem,
that they don’t even know how to start tackling it. Doing so would take a
fundamental rethinking of how to conduct intelligence in an increasingly
networked and globalized world, where disinformation is quickly becoming a
weapon in the hands of malicious state actors. This is completely uncharted
territory, and no-one in the West is quite sure how to respond to these novel
challenges.
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25/12/2019| |
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30/11/1999| |
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