Relations between Southeast Asia and Europe have evolved on many fronts, and will likely keep developing despite geopolitical tensions.Shared challenges mean Europe’s and Southeast Asia’s strategic interests are aligning. The European Union is trying to grow its security footprint in the region. This rapprochement remains vulnerable to major geopolitical events.
Ties
between Europe and Southeast Asia have seen an uptick in recent years due to
several converging interests. The European Union and key European states
recognize the opportunities Southeast Asia presents as part of the wider
Indo-Pacific growth story. They are also partially aligned in facing challenges
to the rules-based international order.
For
Southeast Asian countries and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) as a bloc, Europe is one of many partners to engage as part of a
multi-aligned approach that extends beyond the narrow bipolar lens of United
States-China competition. This common ground has manifested itself through
bilateral agreements, as well EU-ASEAN cooperation. In 2020, the two agreed to
become strategic partners. Collaboration then intensified with a blueprint to
further operationalize cooperation in December 2022.
The EU
has pledged 10 billion euros for connectivity projects in Southeast Asia. It
has also made inroads with key countries in the region, including a new digital
agreement with Singapore as well as an energy transition partnership with
Vietnam.
Individual
European countries have been pursuing closer ties to Southeast Asia as well.
Some, such as France, Germany and the Netherlands, have done so as part of
broader, formal Indo-Pacific strategies. Others, like the United Kingdom, have
been in the spotlight for deployments to the South China Sea and
cross-continental initiatives like the AUKUS security pact to counter China’s
rise in the Indo-Pacific region.
Yet
Europe’s engagement in the region has not been without challenges. There are
periodic economic issues that remain unsolved, like palm oil disputes or wider
regional anxieties over the EU’s carbon policies. Regional and global
geopolitical challenges like Myanmar or the Israel-Gaza war also complicate the
EU’s engagement with some Southeast Asian countries given diverging views in
the region.
At the
February 2024 EU-ASEAN ministerial meeting, EU High Representative Josep
Borrell admitted that engagement had to take into account “different approaches
to several questions,” which attested to divergences on issues such as Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict. In a wider sense, the
European Union’s progress in establishing a stronger presence in security
matters has been slower than it would like. For instance, the EU is not yet a
full participant in the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus, widely
considered the association’s most important defense framework.
Looking
ahead, the key question is how ties will evolve in the coming years. This will
play out amid other domestic, regional and global realities for both Southeast
Asia and Europe. For Southeast Asia, the twin geopolitical challenges of the
South China Sea and Myanmar, as well as work on ASEAN’s post-2025 push to boost
the institution’s unity and relevance will likely continue to consume the
region. The trend of regime transitions in Southeast Asia will also continue,
for example with a leadership succession in Singapore and a new government in
Indonesia. These dynamics will naturally affect some of Southeast Asia’s
engagements with its key partners.
Meanwhile,
Europe will soon see several decisive elections, and the Russia-Ukraine
conflict will raise questions about its ability to sustain its commitment to
Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region. The ability of European
states to translate commitments into concrete actions and projects will likely
be pivotal in how the situation develops.
Scenarios
Most
likely: Continuity in strengthened EU-ASEAN engagement
Here,
the EU and European states continue to make incremental inroads with ASEAN as
well as with individual Southeast Asian countries. This includes progress on
some individual bilateral economic trade deals with countries like Thailand,
which could act as stepping stones toward an ambitious and previously elusive
EU-ASEAN free trade pact.
There
could also be further strategic agreements similar to those seen recently, like
strategic port development in Malaysia or a digital economy package for the
Philippines. Defense inroads could also occur, both through bilateral
cooperation or with ASEAN regional centers, on cybersecurity, humanitarian
assistance or disaster relief.
The EU’s
successes could also expand with like-minded partners in the region, perhaps
through innovative mechanisms like the Just Energy Transition Partnerships or
through more collaboration on infrastructure projects via the EU’s Global
Gateway. These initiatives would continue despite occasional tensions and
respective challenges.
Moderately
likely: Broadening of the EU’s regional role
In this
scenario, the EU and European states would not just continue to make progress
in certain economic areas, but would also redefine Europe’s role in Southeast
Asia, becoming a crucial strategic and security partner.
The EU
could have an impact in sectors strategic for Southeast Asia, including
artificial intelligence. This would further intensify perceptions of the EU as
a regulatory authority in the contest for regional and global rules and norms.
European
powers could become a more regular feature in minilateral and multilateral
military exercises and other actions that seek to address China’s assertiveness
in the South China Sea. As this occurs, the EU may even begin to be seen by
some Southeast Asian states as a better hedge against Washington and Beijing in
the context of U.S.-China competition, rather than just one of several
partners.
Less
likely: Retrenchment
The
third and least likely scenario is the retrenchment scenario. While few expect
this to occur given the mutual interests on both sides, it cannot be ruled out.
Under this scenario, Europe may find it difficult to deliver on its commitments
to Southeast Asia and turn increasingly inward, due to factors such as an
intensification of its Russia conundrum, leadership changes and economic
difficulties.
Southeast
Asia may also face obstructions to closer ties with Europe. ASEAN could see its
relevance diminish further amid internal and external challenges, and some
Southeast Asian states could move even closer into China’s orbit in some
aspects. This would make it difficult for European states to engage and shape
rules and norms in certain sectors.
Some key
governments could also adopt more anti-Western stances, resisting higher
standards in some areas of engagement with the EU and some European states.
This could also become evident if regional issues – for example Myanmar –
worsen. There could be a growing divide between more forward-leaning European
countries and ASEAN’s lowest-common-denominator approach as a bloc.
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/eu-asean/
****Dr.
Prashanth Parameswaran is a fellow at the Wilson Center, a senior columnist at
The Diplomat magazine and the founder of ASEAN Wonk, a weekly newsletter
focusing on foreign and security policy in Southeast Asia.
A
political scientist by training, Dr. Parameswaran is a recognized expert on
Asian affairs and U.S. foreign policy in the region, with nearly two decades of
experience spanning think tanks, government, media and business and a focus on
Southeast Asia and politics and security issues. He has conducted grant-based
field research across the region, consulted for companies and governments on
geopolitical and geoeconomic issues, and taught courses for several
institutions including the United States Department of Defense and the U.S.
Department of State.
Dr.
Parameswaran’s research and commentary have been published widely in the U.S.
and across the region in leading publications and journals including CNN, The
Washington Post, The South China Morning Post, The Straits Times, Asia Policy
and Contemporary Southeast Asia. His first book, “Elusive Balances: Shaping
U.S.-Southeast Asia Strategy,” was published in 2022 and examines major power
commitments to regions of the world with a focus on U.S. commitment to
Southeast Asia.
Dr.
Parameswaran holds a PhD and master’s degree from the Fletcher School of Law
and Diplomacy at Tufts University focused on international security and
international business, and received a bachelor’s degree from the University of
Virginia where he studied foreign affairs and peace and conflict studies.