The DHS Office of Inspector General (OIG) has released a report, redacted before publication, that addresses DHS’ efforts to develop incident management plans associated with the 15 existing National Planning Scenarios. These scenarios contemplate attacks and disasters ranging from a cyber-attack to terrorist assaults involving radiological, biological or chemical agents to a major earthquake or hurricane.
The OIG’s summary of the scenarios follows:
Scenario 1: Nuclear Detonation – Improvised Nuclear Device
Members of a terrorist organization have detonated a 10-kiloton improvised nuclear device in a heavily populated metropolitan area. The initial detonation causes total infrastructure damage in a three-mile radius and various levels of radiation spanning out 3,000 square miles. As casualties climb in excess of several hundred thousand, hundreds of thousands of survivors either shelter in place or are forced onto the city’s transportation system to seek shelter in safe areas or evacuate the city. The city is now facing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage and a recovery effort that will take years.
Scenario 2: Biological Attack – Aerosol Anthrax
Two individuals release 100 liters of aerosolized anthrax into the air of a major metropolitan city. More than 330,000 people are exposed to the anthrax spores. Casualties and injuries resulting from the inhaled anthrax and subsequent infection reach upwards of 13,000 people. The economic costs associated with the closure and decontamination of affected areas may run in the billions of dollars, and the city will likely face a recovery effort that will take months.
Scenario 3: Biological Disease Outbreak – Pandemic Influenza
A new strain of avian influenza has spread to the U.S. Estimates predict that fatalities could range anywhere between 209,000 and 1.9 million people, with an even greater number requiring hospitalization. Hospital bills alone could reach upwards of $180 billion.
Scenario 4: Biological Attack – Pneumonic Plague
Members of a terrorist organization manufacture the causative agent of plague and disseminate it in several metropolitan areas using biological warfare dissemination devices. Approximately 36 hours after release, patients begin showing up at hospitals with rapidly progressing and severe respiratory illnesses. Estimates predict that fatalities could range upwards of 9,500 people with more than 28,000 people becoming ill. As word gets out that pneumonic plague is spreading, hospitals will see an influx of people crowding into emergency rooms, possibly creating a shortage of available beds.
Scenario 5: Chemical Attack – Blister Agent
Members of a terrorist organization use a lightweight aircraft to spray Agent Yellow -- which is a mixture of two blister agents that can cause permanent damage to the respiratory system if inhaled and severe burns to the eyes or skin -- into a crowded college football stadium. Thousands are injured and many are killed as people flee from the contaminated stadium. Additional injuries and fatalities will occur as a result of contact with the blister agent. Tens of thousands of people will need decontamination, as well as both short-term and long-term care.
Scenario 6: Chemical Attack – Toxic Industrial Chemicals
Sleeper cells of a domestic terrorist organization have launched a multi-phase attack at a port and a nearby petroleum refinery. Utilizing vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, the terrorists target a U.S. Coast Guard facility and two container ships containing hazardous material. The terrorists initiate the second phase of the attack by launching rocket-propelled grenades into the center of the petroleum refinery. Several hundred people are killed, thousands are injured and thousands more are forced to evacuate or shelter in place as a result of the explosions, fires and vapor plume. Recovery efforts will likely take months and the economic impact will likely be in the billions.
Scenario 7: Chemical Attack – Nerve Agent
Members of a terrorist organization have acquired the nerve agent sarin and have released it into the ventilation system of a large office building in a metropolitan area. The agent quickly kills 95 percent of the building’s 6,000 occupants. Even more injuries and deaths occur as first responders arrive on the scene, unaware of the current conditions. As the nerve agent escapes the building, almost 50,000 people located in adjacent buildings are forced to shelter in place. Recovery time will likely be three to four months, with the total economic impact reaching upwards of $300 million.
Scenario 8: Chemical Attack – Chlorine Tank Explosion
Members of a terrorist organization have detonated an explosive device on a 60,000-gallon storage tank filled with liquefied chlorine gas. The terrorists have also planted improvised explosive devices, set to detonate at varying intervals, close to the tank in order to harm emergency responders. Within an hour, there are almost 10,000 people crowding into emergency rooms with severe respiratory difficulties. As the gas continues to move downwind, as many as 35,000 people, or 5 percent of those in the affected area, are exposed to potentially lethal doses of chlorine gas. Recovery will take several weeks and likely cost millions of dollars.
Scenario 9: Natural Disaster – Major Earthquake
A major metropolitan area, with a population of almost 10 million people, experiences a 7.5 magnitude earthquake followed shortly by an 8.0 magnitude earthquake. In the area within 25 miles of the fault, many homes and buildings are completely destroyed. Approximately 1,400 people are killed, 100,000 more are crowding into hospital emergency rooms, and an intense search and rescue for an estimated 20,000 people has been launched. Recovery efforts are expected to range from several months to several years, and the estimated total economic impact is projected to be in the billions.
Scenario 10: Natural Disaster – Major Hurricane
A category 5 hurricane, with sustained wind speeds in excess of 160 miles per hour and a storm surge 20 feet higher than normal, makes landfall at a major metropolitan area. The storm surge, heavy winds and subsequent tornados spawned by the hurricane cause destruction to nearly 200,000 homes and result in nearly 1,000 fatalities. With such a wide path of destruction, recovery from the hurricane will likely take several months to a couple of years, with the total economic impact reaching into the billions.
Scenario 11: Radiological Attack – Radiological Dispersal Devices
Members of a terrorist organization have manufactured and detonated a radiological dispersal device, or a “dirty bomb,” in three regionally close, moderate to large cities. Each explosion causes significant damage to many of the buildings and structures in the immediate area of the blast. At each site, there are approximately 180 deaths and upwards of 20,000 detectable contaminations. Recovery efforts will likely take several months to a couple of years. Total economic loss will be in the billions of dollars.
Scenario 12: Explosives Attack – Terrorist Use of Explosives
Members of a terrorist organization have carried out a multi-pronged attack using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) at a large urban entertainment / sports venue. Three suicide bombers detonated their devices, killing and injuring some people and sending the rest of the large crowd into a frantic rush to the exits, where they are met by the detonation of a large vehicle bomb. Similar detonations also occur near a crowded public transportation concourse, a parking lot and inside the lobby of the nearest hospital emergency room. The explosions combine to cause millions of dollars in damage and to kill approximately 100 people. Recovery efforts will take weeks.
Scenario 13: Biological Attack – Food Contamination
A member of a terrorist organization, who works at a meat processing plant on the West Coast, contaminates the meat with anthrax. Two contaminated batches of ground beef were sent to two different states. In a 10-day span, hospitals on the West Coast begin to see a sudden influx of people with gastrointestinal problems. Upwards of 1,800 have become ill and there have been 500 fatalities. Recovery efforts to address contamination sites and provide for those who have become ill will take millions of dollars and likely will last for several weeks.
Scenario 14: Biological Attack – Foreign Animal Disease
Members of a terrorist organization have launched a biological attack on the agricultural industry by infecting livestock at various transportation sites with a foreign animal disease. Farmers in several states quickly realize that many of their animals are ill. Recovery efforts will likely take weeks and require hundreds of millions of dollars to diagnose, quarantine, destroy and dispose of livestock herds.
Scenario 15: Cyber Attack
Members of a terrorist organization launch a cyber attack against critical infrastructures that rely on the Internet. Service disruptions occur across many sectors and there is a general fear that there will be a loss of confidence in the Internet and the services it provides. Recovery efforts will likely take months and cost upwards of several hundred million dollars.
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The OIG report finds that DHS is “making progress,” but a “full set of plans has not yet been completed for any of the [above] scenarios.”
The reason, according to the DHS OIG, is “partly because of the time required to develop and implement” the required integrated planning system, which calls for a “strategic guidance statement, strategic plan, and concept of operations plan” for each of the scenario sets.
Thus far, five of the eight key scenario sets have approved strategic guidance statements, while four have approved strategic plans, according to the OIG, while a single “concept of operations plan, the Terrorist Use of Explosives, has been approved by the DHS Secretary.”
Additionally, the OIG finds, “strategic guidance statement planning for the Natural Disaster, Cyber Attack, and Pandemic Influenza scenario sets has not yet begun.”
Incident management planning became a priority in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, according to the report, when the storm “demonstrated the need for greater integration and synchronization of preparedness efforts, not only throughout the Federal government, but also with the State and local governments and the private and non-profit sectors as well.”
The 15 National Planning Scenarios were developed by the Homeland Security Council, working with DHS, other federal departments and agencies, and state, local, tribal and territorial governments.
