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18/03/2016 | The United States and Latin America - Harmony now, discord later

The Economist Staff

After Barack Obama’s trip to Cuba, regional relations may deteriorate.

 

FIVE years ago, if Barack Obama had announced a trip to Havana, Cuban-American demonstrators would have filled Miami’s streets, suggests Carlos Gimenez, the mayor of Miami-Dade County. Now that Mr Obama is about to pay the first visit to Cuba by a sitting president since 1928, on March 21st and 22nd, the dominant mood in Miami is one of resignation, says the mayor, an urbane, silver-haired Republican who left Cuba as a boy the year after Fidel Castro took power.

True, the “pretty universal” sentiment among Florida’s 1.4m Cuban-Americans is that Mr Obama has extracted too few concessions from the government of Raúl Castro, Fidel’s brother, in exchange for relaxing restrictions on travel and trade. But the normalisation of ties with the communist island is now seen as “inevitable”. In the Little Havana district of Miami crowds no longer gather to celebrate rumours that Fidel has died, Mr Gimenez marvels. The exiles who lost homes and businesses to the revolution have either grown old or died. The “fervour has gone”.

But not among contenders for the Republican nomination in the American presidential race. Ted Cruz of Texas, a Cuban-American senator, is sharply critical of Mr Obama’s Cuba policies (as was Marco Rubio, a fellow Cuban-American senator, who dropped out of the race on March 15th). For them, the opening to Cuba is evidence of the president’s feckless, despot-coddling, blame-America approach to foreign policy. John Kasich, the moderate Republican left in the race, is also a sceptic. Mr Cruz says that he would cut off diplomatic relations with Cuba, which were re-established last July after a 54-year break.

That promise, like much of the rhetoric produced by the presidential election campaign, is ominous for the United States’ relations not just with Cuba, but with Latin America as a whole. More than in most regions, the behaviour of the United States toward Latin America reflects its domestic concerns. Most of the candidates, including the Republican bigot, Donald Trump, and the Democratic protectionist, Bernie Sanders, have made promises that would damage in different ways the progress that Mr Obama has made on Latin America. Even Hillary Clinton sounds lukewarm about Mr Obama’s trade initiatives.

After neglecting the region for much of his presidency, Mr Obama has recently attempted something of a reset. Arturo Valenzuela, an assistant secretary of state in his first term, says that the administration has sought to end a “Manichean” approach, in which the United States divided its southern neighbours into countries that were “with us or against us”. Tensions over George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq and war on terror worsened relations and played into the hands of anti-American governments. Confrontations with Cuba fed a “symbiotic relationship” between hardliners within the Castro regime and anti-Castro right-wingers in the United States, Mr Valenzuela argues.

Rather than feud with critics of the United States, Mr Obama tried to ignore them or, as in the case of Cuba, engage with them. In an interview with the Atlantic magazine, he argues that his willingness at regional summits to sit through anti-American rants helped to “right-size” such opponents as Hugo Chávez, the late Venezuelan leader, “rather than blow him up as this ten-foot giant adversary”.

Now, some of the United States’ most unsparing critics are being weakened or sidelined by a combination of term limits, unpopularity and self-destructive economic policies. In Argentina, which Mr Obama will visit after Cuba, a centre-right pragmatist, Mauricio Macri, replaced an anti-yanqui populist, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, after elections last November. Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro, clings to power, but Venezuela’s economy is suffering from a lethal mix of recession, shortages and inflation, and his party lost control of the legislature last year.

In Cuba, Mr Obama is betting, change will come through diplomatic relations, increased trade and investment and personal bonds forged by American teachers, students and other travellers. It will not happen “overnight”, he has repeatedly warned. Even if Congress does not swiftly repeal the 1996 law at the heart of the current embargo, the Helms-Burton Act, case-by-case licences will allow entry to American investors, whose adherence to transparency and anti-corruption laws could provide a model for Cuba. The rapprochement with the Castro regime will in turn undercut leftist narratives about American imperialism, removing one irritant from relations with the entire region.

Mr Obama has tried to reduce others. He has used executive powers to shield millions of undocumented migrants from deportation and to focus expulsions on those who had committed serious crimes. That mostly affects the country’s 57m Hispanics, and their relatives in other countries—even if they had hoped for more. On narcotics Mr Obama shifted the government’s emphasis from interdiction to reducing demand at home, de-escalating the drug war, which is fought most ferociously on foreign soil. When Mexico’s president, Enrique Peña Nieto, indicated that he wanted the relationship with the United States to focus less on drugs and more on trade, Mr Obama went along. In the past year the two countries have opened the first new railway bridge between them for more than a century. In sum, after decades of cold-war confrontations, followed by “Washington consensus” blandishments on economic reform, Mr Obama has tried to make pragmatism the basis of his country’s relations with Latin America.

Republican headbangers

That is not the message from the presidential election campaign. To the extent that Latin America features at all it is as a source of unwanted immigrants and cut-price competition. Mr Trump’s fantastical talk of building a wall on the border with Mexico, paid for by the Mexican government, is a symptom of a larger malaise.

At Trump rallies, Mexico has become an avatar for globalisation itself. The businessman calls the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada a disaster. He has described how, as president, he would call the bosses of such firms as Ford and demand that they move manufacturing jobs back from Mexico to the United States, or face import tariffs of up to 35%. Mexican politicians are “laughing at us” and “killing us economically”, Mr Trump tells roaring supporters.

On Cuba Mr Trump sounds more liberal than his rivals. The embargo, he suggests, might be negotiable. “After 50 years, it’s enough time, folks,” said Mr Trump in a presidential debate on March 10th. He would “probably” close the new American embassy in Havana until he could reach a “really good deal”.

The billionaire’s nativism has forced his Republican rivals to the right. Mr Cruz, a son of an immigrant, talks of foreign labour as a threat to American workers and jobs. He accuses Democrats of viewing “illegal immigrants as potential voters” and many Republicans of seeing illegal workers as useful “cheap labour”. Such rhetoric has been noted across the region.

Blending sincere outrage with partisan point-scoring, Republicans justify opposition to the rapprochement with Cuba in terms of human rights. As a senator Mr Rubio has blocked the confirmation of a new American ambassador to Mexico for many months. He accuses Mr Obama’s nominee, Roberta Jacobson, of failing to emphasise human rights and democracy when negotiating with Cuba and Venezuela in her current post as the top State Department official for the Americas. Mr Cruz calls the idea of expanded trade with Cuba an example of Mr Obama allowing billions of dollars to flow to “nations that hate us”.

The Democratic candidates pay less attention to Latin America, but they, too, might damage Mr Obama’s legacy. Mr Sanders was an early foe of NAFTA and would probably halt American participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a proposed trade deal among a dozen Pacific Rim nations, including three Latin American ones, if it is not ratified this year. Mrs Clinton has backed away from her earlier enthusiasm for the TPP. As Mr Obama’s former secretary of state, she is the candidate likeliest to continue what he started. But Mr Obama’s trip to Havana may be the last big American overture to its neighbours for some time.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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15/09/2010|
12/09/2010|
12/09/2010|
12/09/2010|
12/09/2010|
06/09/2010|
06/09/2010|
05/09/2010|
05/09/2010|
29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
29/08/2010|
22/08/2010|
22/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
21/08/2010|
14/08/2010|
13/08/2010|
13/08/2010|
07/08/2010|
07/08/2010|
12/07/2010|
12/06/2010|
12/06/2010|
12/06/2010|
24/05/2010|
24/05/2010|
11/05/2010|
10/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House