The ruling, met by brazen criticism from Chávez, paves the way for Leopoldo López Mendoza, the 40-year-old former mayor of a wealthy Caracas suburb, to run in primary elections slated for next February.

More importantly, according to Christopher Sabatini, senior director of policy at the Americas Society and Council of the Americas, the ruling sets the stage for Venezuela's ailing opposition to deliver what is likely to be the most momentous electoral challenge to Chávez since he came to power 12 years ago.

"You're looking at an opposition that's more unified in terms of its generation, vision and history," Sabatini told Trend Lines this week, noting that the major players, namely López and Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski of Miranda state, have held positions of high public office during Chávez's reign.

With Chávez currently battling colon cancer, the overall sense of unity and momentum among the opposition stands in stark contrast to the mood among Chávez's political allies, who, according to Sabatini, "have shown great levels of defection, splits within the ranks and questions about what alternative leadership exists."

Furthermore, while Chávez enjoys bedrock support among some sectors of the population, Sabatini believes Venezuelan voters overall are more divided than they have been in the past. "If you think of this as a 30-30-30 proposition, 30 percent are hardcore Chavistas," he said. "Thirty percent are independent voters, or even soft-Chavistas waiting and calculating what the alternative may be, and then the other 30 percent are hardcore anti-Chavista."

"The question," he said, "will be who's going to best be able to capture that middle 30, and it's going to be a popularity contest."

Capriles, 39, has led in early opinion polls. He'll likely build a platform around his experience as governor of a large, wealthy state during the Chávez era. López, while far from leftist, is more likely to push an aspirational platform, focused on tackling crime, which has skyrocketed during the past decade, and drawing on the nation's oil wealth to more effectively implement social programs than Chávez has been able to.

Capriles is generally regarded as the most charismatic of the two, but Sabatini noted that López is seizing on the momentum of having the international human rights community intervene on his behalf. The Chávez government barred López from running six years ago and opened a corruption investigation against him on accusations that an organization he headed had received donations from Venezuela's state oil company while his mother worked at the company. 

While the recent court ruling will now make it difficult for the government to block López from running in the primary, according to Sabatini, Chávez could still attempt to bar him from registering for the actual presidential poll next October. "It's a looming question," he said, adding that much may still change during the coming year. A likely scenario, and the wisest one for the opposition, would see Capriles and López come together on a single ticket against Chávez, with "one running for president and the other for vice president."

"I think that could be a very powerful ticket," Sabatini said.

**Christopher Sabatini offers regular analysis of Latin American politics and regional relations with the United States for Americas Quarterly.