A recent wave of economic prosperity in Argentina may have swept incumbent President Cristina Kirchner to a second term last weekend. But with the election now past, some observers are questioning how long Kirchner can maintain subsidy-heavy policies supporting her nation’s growth and, more importantly, how long she can hold onto the positive public opinion that has accompanied that growth.
Argentina’s economic success of recent years, says Karen
Hooper, a Latin America analyst with the private intelligence company STRATFOR,
“has been strong because of strong stimulus policies from the government.”
Such policies center largely on subsidies for energy and
food, along with strict currency controls and restrictions on foreign direct
investment, and fall under a wider populist program pursued in the aftermath of
Argentina’s early-2000s economic collapse by Kirchner’s late husband, former
President Néstor Kirchner.
While the goal was to restore public confidence in the
government, Hooper told Trend Lines on Monday that Cristina Kirchner has taken
the strategy to new heights during recent months by “enormously increasing
spending on social programs in order to ensure popularity ahead of the
election.”
It appears to have worked. Opposition candidates had
little chance of unifying against the surge of support for Kirchner, said
Hooper, who notes that “the question in Argentina is always one of popular
unrest or the lack thereof.”
“It’s a very paternalistic system,” she said, “one in
which power flows from the presidency on down.”
As a result, in order to hold on to executive power, a
president must “secure either all of the party support or all of the popular
support,” added Hooper, noting that Kirchner has succeeded in achieving the
latter.
Popular sympathy for Kirchner was further boosted, said
Hooper, by Néstor Kirchner's death last October. “I definitely think [Cristina
Kirchner] has 'played' Néstor’s death very well,” she said. “It’s macabre, but
it did her a huge favor in terms of personal appeal.”
The downside of Kirchner's strategy, according to Hooper,
is that overall public support can be expected to wane as the government
ratchets back spending on social programs to compensate for the generous
subsidies that have defined the country's economy over the past decade, and
particularly the past year.
“They’re not going to be able to spend at the rate that
they have over the past year, and especially the past few months,” she said,
noting international observers generally agree the Argentine peso has become
overvalued as a result of government outlays of cash. The high value has driven
a consumer boom, with increased imports from regional neighbors like Brazil.
But, added Hooper, the peso's value is likely to drop as the Argentine government
cuts back on spending.
While in theory such a devaluation might be eased by the
pursuit of international loans to bolster the peso, in practice Argentina still
does not have access to international credit markets due to its debt default in
November 2002, which followed an economic collapse that many believe was
precipitated by an overreliance on foreign credit.
All of this adds up to what may be a bumpy second term
for Kirchner, said Hooper, who contends that while the opposition is unlikely
to present real alternatives to her policies, “they’re going to be waiting on
the sidelines for when things turn sour.”
“Essentially,” she added, “the opposition's chance will
come when people are ready to turn against her.”