When attempting to understand the Putin-Medvedev dynamic, Ben Judah, a London-based policy fellow and Russia specialist with the European Council on Foreign Relations, says one must take care not to view the two as being in competition with each other.

"It shouldn't be confused as a battle between two rivals," Judah reminded Trend Lines earlier this week. "The tandem was created for this reason, to give this illusion that there is a race, when actually it's a choice taken between a closed group of men about what best serves their collective interest."

The illusion of rivalry has certainly taken on the appearance of reality during the past year, though, as Medvedev made headlines for reproaching Putin on a variety of issues -- most notably over Putin's criticism of NATO's Libya intervention. Russia has since done an about-face on Libya, with Medvedev calling on Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi to step down.

However, according to Judah, the rivalry remains an illusion, and a useful one, as neither Putin nor Medvedev wants "people to know the internal workings of the regime, because they don't want to be played with by outside forces or other political actors in Russia."

Chief among the external factors necessitating the appearance of a division between the two is the need to balance relations between China and the West, said Judah. Russia is presently in "desperate need of foreign investment and technology to modernize its economy, which was really battered by the financial crisis." That entails reassuring Western companies and investors that Russia is a safe investment climate.

But, Judah said, "The Chinese have decided that Medvedev is very pro-Western because of the reset with the U.S., and they are not extremely enthusiastic about him." He added that while it may not be the official government line in Beijing, the Communist Party's main think tanks "will tell you that China prefers Putin's style and that Chinese intellectuals would prefer it if Putin comes back."

That preference is also due in part to the fact that, while Medvedev has presented himself as the modernization candidate, Putin represents the voice of stability.

One thing is certain: Medvedev, often described by Western media as Putin's placeholder for the presidency, is the weaker of the two politically. "If Putin wants to come back and decides it's better for him and for the country, he will," said Judah, while adding, "The paradox is that Medvedev looks weaker as a politician, but Putin looks weaker in terms of narrative."

Judah also noted that while next year's election will impact "how Russia is perceived internationally, the unfortunate thing is that it will not be fairly contested."

Still, for now it remains hard to predict which of the two men will ultimately be the candidate. "Putin prides himself on being a Judo player, and the thing about Judo is that you always let your opponent move first and then turn his weight against him," said Judah. "I think Putin very much wants to wait until the last minute before making a move."

"Nobody knows who's going to be president," he said.

Ben Judah regularly offers analysis on the European Council on Foreign Relations website, including this piece examining the Putin-Medvedev relationship last month.