As with
the Islamic Republic’s four prior violations of the nuclear deal, the answer is
probably still not yet – but keep watch.
A number
of experts have pointed out in the past that many of Iran’s big declarations
seem like bluster for public relations more than major new scientific
achievements.
Institute
for Science and International Security President David Albright told The Jerusalem
Post that the sheer volume of types of centrifuges that Iran is working on
developing at the same time makes no sense for efficiency in design.
He said
if a country wants to get a particular design right, then it usually sticks
with that design or maybe one easier design and one more advanced design.
Albright
said that Iran working on the IR-1, IR-2m, IR-4, IR-6, IR-8, recently
mentioning an IR-9 and on Saturday claiming to work on an additional design
merely makes its program look incoherent to someone versed in the nuclear
trade.
A hint
missed by most that this new alleged advanced centrifuge system is likely not
an immediate game-changer is that Iran said the new system will be unveiled on
April 9.
In other
words, in four months from now something might happen. Not exactly a formula
for a sudden jump forward.
However,
Israel and the West cannot get overconfident.
The Post
recently learned from sources close to Mossad Director Yossi Cohen that Tehran
is viewed as a dynamic actor that can make sudden unexpected jumps forward, and
has proven this ability in the past.
The
sources pointed out multiple times that Iran surprised the West, including with
its underground Fordow nuclear facility and its pre-JCPOA jump to enriching
uranium to the 20% level, up from the much lower 3.67% and 5% levels.
Furthermore,
the sources indicated that the Mossad’s appropriation of Iranian nuclear
secrets in April 2018 revealed a wide range of additional nuclear sites that
were unknown, many of which still have not been revealed or inspected.
When
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed the Abadeh nuclear site in
September, this was only one of many still undisclosed nuclear sites.
Returning
to Albright, he warned the Post that even if the Islamic Republic’s discussion
of advanced new centrifuges may be hubris, there are many reasons to worry that
Iran could quickly shorten what he currently estimates as a six- to 10-month
breakout timeline to a nuclear bomb.
Albright
noted that IAEA reports and other information show that Iran’s standard IR-1
centrifuges have been failing much less than in the past.
Adding
in that Russia has had a JCPOA-endorsed role in Iran’s centrifuge program, he
said it is possible that Moscow illegally helped Tehran on the side improve its
centrifuge performance.
While
Russia publicly bristles at such accusations, that does not mean it has not
secretly helped Iran or that the Iranians have not obtained additional know-how
simply from closer proximity with Russian scientists, as provided for in the
JCPOA, said Albright.
An even
greater worry could be that any such additional nuclear know-how could easily
be transferred upstream to the more advanced centrifuges.
Sometimes,
he said, these advances could be as simple as the Iranians learning from
foreigners that they needed to use clean gloves when handling centrifuge rotors
to avoid corrosion from grease from people’s bare hands.
In other
words, Albright said the big announcements might not be the reason to worry,
but there is still plenty to worry about when it comes to Iran advancing in the
centrifuge business.
Last
weekend’s announcement was not a game-changer. But between the Mossad and
Albright’s warnings to the Post, if and when Iran does make a jump forward,
Israel and the West may suddenly find themselves playing catch-up much closer
to the nuclear finish line than expected.