The Intelligence Ministry on Monday unveiled the country’s first-ever national intelligence estimate report on Monday.
The
world is at a transition point analogous to being on the verge of a cliff,
after which a series of crises striking simultaneously will reorder the
planet’s geopolitics, the place of technology, the economic order and a variety
of other disciplines from health to energy, according to Israel’s first
government national intelligence estimate.
The
report was published by the Intelligence Ministry in the vein of the type of
reports issued in the United States and other Western countries. A copy was
obtained by The Jerusalem Post.
According
to the report, the world is on the verge of a cliff and is likely to be struck
by a variety of crises affecting all aspects of life.
Recommendations
from a team of eight experts who wrote the report addressed all critical areas
related to national power and resilience, including, but going far beyond, mere
military power.
These
recommendations focused on advancing key geopolitical alliances, serving as a
geopolitical and technological bridge between countries and preemptively
filling potential gaps in national resilience.
Some of
the “danger” areas discussed were health, energy and water.
What did
the report say about Israel?
The
report also recognized a major change in Israel’s status since evolving from an
energy-weak country to energy independent with the find – in recent decades –
of natural gas in its maritime coastal areas.
The
recommendations were presented to a special conference on Monday including
officials from all of the arms of Israel’s defense and intelligence branches.
A
schedule for the closed conference obtained by the Post indicated that an
unnamed top intelligence official – usually reserved for Mossad or Shin Bet
officials – will present.
Former IDF
intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, former National Security Council director
Yaakov Amidror, Intelligence Minister Elazar Stern and Intelligence Ministry
Director-General Alex Dan as well as some foreign intelligence officials were
among the other presenters.
Addressing
the conflict with Iran, Yadlin said, “The Iranians are feeling the pressure.
They are struggling with a ‘brain drain’ and are feeling like Israel has
surrounded them following the Abraham Accords.”
“They
feel that the world is identifying them with ‘the bad guys’ and that they have
been unsuccessful in moderating their image,” added Yadlin.
Stern
asked rhetorically, “are we merely surveying the horizon or are we surveying it
so that we can help shape it? This is the difference between our office and
other offices. We provide longer-term intelligence,” which includes, but goes
beyond standard security issues, in order to develop concrete strategies for
the future.
Director-General
Dan stated that wild demographic trends could alter how countries define their
welfare, employment, education and health crisis policies.
“The
state needs to work harder at strengthening national resilience,” explained
Intelligence Ministry official Victor Israel who was involved in drafting the
report.
Explaining
the thinking behind formulating the report, Israel noted that until now, when
there was a crisis in an arena like the environment, there has been only
limited attention, but that such processes are on the verge of passing a
tipping point where the negative impact on society will be far greater than
before.
He said
that the US issues such a report every four years and that NATO, the European
Union, Singapore and large corporations like RAND regularly issue such reports,
and that the Israeli intelligence establishment tracked many of those.
The
senior intelligence ministry official said that the report was a distinct
change for his department which often looked ahead to trends that are 20 years
away, whereas this report had a shorter focus with a 10-year outer limit.
In
addition, Israel said that the report looked closely at the mutual interaction
between the various trends, such as climate change, trust in government
institutions, global health, supply chain and economic downturns that could
have a cumulative destabilizing effect.
According
to the report, it may not be easy for Israel to maintain a geopolitical balance
between positive relations with the US, China and Russia as these powers move
from open competition to greater conflict.
In many
ways, the expectation that these tectonic struggles will replace the war with
terror groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS is a disadvantage for Israel. Jerusalem
thrived when countries from all corners of the globe looked to it for ideas on
how to effectively combat terrorism.
The
conference was also attended by a large delegation of Canadian defense and
diplomatic officials as well as ambassadors from the EU, Japan, Australia,
South Korea and other European countries.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-725248