THE HAMAS-LED OPERATION al-Aqsa Flood, which began on October 7, marked the first large-scale conflict within the borders of Israel since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
However, unlike the coalition of Arab
armies it faced in 1948, Israel now confronts an alliance of sub-state
groups. Led by Hamas’ military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, this
alliance includes the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic
Jihad and a number of secular groups, such as the Fatah-aligned al-Aqsa
Martyrs’ Brigades, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
(PFLP) and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP).
Such groups are lesser-known than Hamas;
however, they often bring with them expertise in niche areas, such as
handling networks of informants inside Israel, building sophisticated
explosives, employing unmanned combat drones, or procuring specialized
weaponry. They are therefore likely to have contributed greatly to the
outcome of Operation al-Aqsa Flood. Their participation also enabled
Hamas to launch what essentially amounted to a combined arms assault on Israel. The latter included coordinated land, sea and air elements, which were purposefully low-tech.
That may explain why the assailants were able to short-circuit and
overwhelm the purportedly impregnable security perimeter that Israel
maintains around the Gaza Strip.
Iranian and Lebanese Coaching
Putting aside the individual low-tech
elements of the operation, its overall level of tactical organization
almost certainly points to considerable support from actors beyond the
Gaza Strip. Such actors likely include networks of informants within
Israel, as well as possibly Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah.
Both are well-versed in hybrid warfare and have studied Israeli defense
systems more extensively than any other regional actor. Additionally,
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah’s Lebanese
Resistance Brigades are seasoned practitioners of deception operations.
They likely coached Hamas, not only on how to carry out Operation
al-Aqsa Flood, but more importantly on how to prevent Israel and its
allies from gathering intelligence about it.
There is no question that an operation of
such a magnitude must have taken months —possibly even years— to
conceive, develop and organize. Such a complex process would have taken
place under the watchful eyes and ears of Israeli and Egyptian
intelligence agencies, who have historically faced little resistance in
penetrating Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas. Yet none seem
to have collected enough intelligence to anticipate the attack. It is
equally stunning that the meticulous planning of Operation al-Aqsa Flood
appears to have escaped the attention of American intelligence
agencies, whose presence in the Middle East is significant. How was that
even possible?
The answer to this puzzle is likely to
relate to Iran. Its agents on the ground appear to have been able to
meticulously assemble, fund and train a militant structure inside the
Gaza Strip, which has been operating for quite some time in parallel to
Hamas’ official structure. This parallel structure likely consists of
highly committed and trustworthy —probably even polygraphed— individuals
from various Palestinian groups. For several years, this elite
structure has managed to operate in airtight secrecy from even seasoned
members of the al-Qassam Brigades, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other
Palestinian organizations with a presence in the Gaza Strip. If this
line of reasoning is accurate, it is likely that the launch of Operation
al-Aqsa Flood stunned even senior Palestinian militants in the Gaza
strip in the early hours of October 7. Yet senior Iranian officials knew
about it, and most likely so did Hezbollah’s leadership.
A Tactical and Strategic Surprise
It should be taken for granted that the
planners of the attack adopted a truly hermetic approach to operational
discretion. Yet it is unlikely that Israeli, Egyptian, Jordanian, Saudi,
American, and other spy agencies, would have failed to collect at least
some warning-intelligence about the attack —especially in recent weeks
and days, as the planners intensified their preparations in Gaza. The
level of surveillance in the Strip is simply too extensive for such a
large-scale operation to have gone completely unnoticed. It is likely,
therefore, that at least some warning signals reached the administration
of Israel’s president Benjamin Netanyahu.
It is also probable, however, that
Netanyahu’s highly politicized and embattled government kept its
attention focused elsewhere —primarily on its own political survival,
which has faced repeated threats of late, as Israel has edged close to
what some observers warned could be civil war. Additionally, there have been allegations
that Netanyahu’s pro-settler government focused largely on “protecting
settlers in the West Bank [with troops] than it did on protecting
kibbutzniks on the border with Gaza”. That could well be a central
element in explaining the catastrophic tactical surprise that Israel
suffered last weekend.
It is important to note that Operation
al-Aqsa Flood is likely to represent, not simply a tactical, but also a
strategic surprise for the Jewish state. As Martin Indyk argued
in an emergency press briefing by the Council on Foreign Relations last
Sunday, it is probable that the Israeli leadership misinterpreted
Hamas’ strategic intentions. While Israel has feverishly engaged in
normalizing its relations with a host of Arab countries in recent years,
Hamas’ rejectionist militancy must have seemed at times almost like a
relic of the past. Some might have even assumed that Hamas would adopt a
“live-and-let-live approach” toward Israel, so long as it was allowed
to rule its domain in the Gaza Strip. Yet such views proved to be
illusionary, with disastrous results.
The Next Weeks
The government of Israel will undoubtedly
investigate the causes behind this historic catastrophe —in due course.
In the meantime it faces a momentous decision: should it, or should it
not, launch a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip? If it does not, it
risks leaving Hamas’ militant infrastructure largely intact. If it does,
it faces the strong probability that Hezbollah will attack Israel from
the north, not just with barrages of missiles, but with an incursion the
size of which may well dwarf Operation al-Aqsa Flood. If it launches a
ground attack, the Lebanese group will have the help of Iran, Iraqi
Shi’a militias, Syrian volunteers, and even Taliban combat units, who
recently pledged
to help “conquer Jerusalem”. Meanwhile, deep divisions inside Israel
will continue to color the government’s maneuvers in the coming weeks.
These may well prove far more calamitous than Israel’s Arab adversaries.
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