Viktor Orban governed Hungary from 1998 to 2002 and again from 2010 to the present. In that time, he has dominated Hungarian politics and, to a great extent, Hungarian life. But late last week, his reign was challenged as tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered in Budapest, calling for his downfall.
Demonstrations
continued through the weekend. Since Orban assumed the premiership more than a
decade ago, the Hungarian opposition has been fractured and generally
ineffective. For so many people to rally against his rule after so much time is
therefore a stunning event, regardless of whether it leads to his removal.
As the
leader of Hungary, Orban created an ideology that has influenced other
countries. It has two critical dimensions. The first is opposition to migration
into Hungary. A decade ago, millions of people from the Middle East sought
refuge in Europe, where many governments allowed them entry even when faced
with domestic resistance. Orban’s position ran counter to European liberalism.
He argued that Hungary was not just a place but a culture and that waves of
immigrants threatened that culture and history. His position won support in
Central Europe, where an anti-migration coalition formed in opposition to the
prevailing view in Brussels. Over the years, Orban’s view has gained many more
adherents throughout Europe.
Second,
Orban was hostile to what some now refer to as “woke” culture, particularly its
attitude toward homosexuality. His criticisms were partly based on a
conservative understanding of Christianity but even more on the belief that
homosexuality would corrupt Hungarian society. Again, he was taking a stand
against European liberalism, and again his view gained acceptance in other
countries over time. In the most recent Dutch election, for example, the party
of Geert Wilders, an open and vigorous ally of Orban, unseated the liberal
party whose erstwhile leader was one of Orban’s strongest critics.
The
influence of Orban’s ideology has also reached the United States. During a
March trip to the U.S., Orban had an intensive meeting with Donald Trump.
Whether he changed any of Trump’s opinions is uncertain, but they apparently
reached a common understanding, and both men have referenced the meeting in
speeches.
Returning
from that trip, Orban appeared politically secure in Hungary. However, a
powerful anti-Orban force was lurking, built on a belief that the Orban regime
was corrupt and that various members were enriching themselves at the cost of
the people. In a sense, there is now a battle of moral values underway between
the woke and the allegedly corrupt – one that may eventually be waged in other
countries. But this time, it struck Orban. It is not clear what the uprising
will achieve. Outrage about the alleged corruption is widespread, but so is the
sense that Orban represents the deep meaning of Hungary.
Another
dimension of the Orban drama involves the Ukraine war. Before the Russian
invasion, while NATO was trying to determine its strategy, Orban traveled to
Moscow to have a lavishly covered meeting with Russian President Vladimir
Putin. In that meeting, Orban suggested that Russia’s demands were reasonable
and said sanctions against the Kremlin would not work. In doing so, he broke
rank with Hungary’s allies in NATO. Shortly after the war started, Orban
refused to commit Hungarian forces or even to allow NATO to base weapons in or
transport them through Hungarian territory – a notable setback for the NATO and
EU campaigns to support Ukraine, which shares a border with Hungary. As for
Russia, Orban’s positions seem to track more closely with Putin than Europe.
Orban’s
decisions regarding Ukraine seemed to be an attempt to follow the Hungarian
public, which wanted no part in the war in general, just as it did not want
immigrants. Orban has long been an effective politician. That makes the events
of last week even more perplexing. Orban seems to have lost his touch, and if
there is a political shift in Budapest, it is possible that the Hungarian
position on NATO, Russia and more might shift as well.
But
Orban is not yet finished. And even if he is, it is not clear whether his
opponents have a vision that goes far enough beyond their disdain for
corruption to bring a broader shift to Hungary.
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