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19/10/2006 | Argentina Economic Activity Seen Up 7.7 % In August

Reuters Staff

Argentina's economy is expected to have grown 7.7 percent in August compared with the same month a year ago, according to the median forecast in a recent Reuters poll of five local analysts.

 

Outlooks for August growth ranged between 7.2 percent and 8.3 percent. The government is due to release the official August figure on Wednesday at 4 p.m. local time (1900 GMT).

July's economic activity, as measured by the government's EMAE index, came in unexpectedly high at 9.1 percent from a year earlier and was up 1.0 percent from June.

The index showed the economy expanded 8.5 percent from January through July, compared with the same period in 2005.

Many economists raised their outlooks for Argentine growth this year to 8.0 percent or more in light of those figures and still-strong industrial output and construction sector growth.

"The main driver continues to be consumer spending," said Rodrigo Alvarez, an economic analyst at Ecolatina consultancy, which forecasts an 8.5 percent rise in August economic activity.

Alvarez said the full impact of higher salaries agreed earlier this year will be felt in the second half of the year, stoking increased consumer spending.

Argentina's economy expanded by 9 percent on average in each of the last three years, marking a robust recovery from deep crisis in 2001-02.

A September central bank poll of economists, analysts and traders put August economic growth at a median of 7.8 percent.

The median forecast among seven international investment banks was 7.7 percent.

Morgan Stanley said in a research note it foresees August activity up 7.5 percent year-on-year, saying growth in the construction sector "took a bit of a breather in August after soaring at a sequential annualized pace in excess of 40 percent in the May-July period."

Growth in the construction sector rose 16.7 percent in August from August 2005, down from a 27.9 percent rise in July from the year-earlier period.

 

Reuters (Estados Unidos)

 


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