Yemen’s troubled transition is at a crossroads more dangerous than any since 2011. The Huthis, a Zaydi Shiite movement also known as Ansar Allah, are mobilising in the capital, organising demonstrations calling for the government’s demise and reinstating the fuel subsidies that were lifted in July.
More
worrying, their tribal supporters, many of whom have ties to former President
Ali Abdullah Saleh, ousted in the 2011 uprising, are setting up protest camps
on the outskirts of the city, implicitly threatening a siege or military
invasion. The situation is tense and the possibility of violence real.
Overcoming the impasse requires returning to the basic principles agreed upon
in the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) that concluded in January 2014:
rejecting political exclusion and resolving differences through peaceful
negotiation.
For
over a year, the Huthis have been battling various foes in the far north,
expanding their territorial control even as they debated the country’s future
in the NDC. Many Yemenis, including Saleh’s General People’s Congress (GPC)
party and supporters of President Abdo Robo Mansour Hadi, quietly cheered as
the Huthis fought and weakened a loose coalition of their common foes – the
al-Ahmar clan, Salafis, and tribal and military affiliates of the Sunni
Islamist party, Islah. But when Huthis captured Amran city, 50km north of
Sanaa, overrunning a military base and killing its commander, the political
dynamics shifted. International and domestic concern grew that the Huthis –
whose positive contributions to the NDC had gained them respect in many
quarters – in fact might not be committed to peaceful change or competition, as
their critics long had charged.
The
debate over the Huthis’ ultimate intentions escalated at the end of July, after
the consensus government, split evenly between the GPC and the former
opposition bloc including Islah, lifted fuel subsidies. With bankruptcy
looming, the state had little choice, but the way it was implemented – suddenly
and absent a public awareness campaign or a larger, transparent economic reform
strategy – was politically disastrous. The Huthis quickly took advantage,
mobilising Yemenis from across the political spectrum. The protests called for
reinstating subsidies, replacing the government and implementing NDC
recommendations, including fighting corruption and adding other groups and
parties to the cabinet.
Huthi
demands resonate widely and if addressed through compromise could strengthen
popular support for the country’s faltering transition. This is an opportunity
to build an accord clarifying post-NDC power-sharing arrangements and timelines
for implementing NDC outcomes. As Crisis Group warned in June 2014, the absence
of such an agreement poses a threat to the transition and has been a core
driver of conflict. Yet the Huthis’ continued mobilisation around the capital
is dangerous and counterproductive, threatening violence should the government
rebuff their demands.
While
the Huthis’ ambitions are unclear and evolving, the protests are part of a
bargaining process through which the movement hopes to become dominant in the
north and more powerful on the national level. Even as their leaders make
demands of the central government in Sanaa, their militias are fighting
Islah-affiliated tribesmen and military units in Jawf governorate in what is
widely viewed as an effort to create facts on the ground to force a
renegotiation of the six-region federal structure proposed by the NDC.
The
protests put President Hadi in a difficult position. They initially offered him
an opportunity to push for changes to his ineffective government and to
strengthen his position vis-à-vis the Saleh and Islah power centres. But when
he hesitated and initial negotiation efforts failed, both sides escalated.
Huthis set up camps in front of government ministries and around Sanaa, while
the president supported a “National Alliance” to organise counter-rallies.
On
2 September, Hadi announced a compromise that partially addressed Huthi
demands. It proposed, among other things, installing a more inclusive
government and lowering fuel prices by approximately 30 per cent, a price
change that was implemented the following day. The initiative was far from
perfect: it was presented to the Huthis as a fait accompli and granted the
president extraordinary power to appoint the prime minister, as well as the
defence, interior, finance and foreign ministers, with little input or
oversight. GPC and Islah members signed the initiative, but some party members
have expressed reservations. Huthi representatives refused the offer, calling
the fuel price reduction insufficient, demanding broader economic reform and
criticising the proposed method of forming the government. The movement has
escalated protest activities in the capital, seemingly convinced that agitation
can achieve more. On 7 September, in a dangerous sign of what could come,
government forces injured scores and killed at least two in an effort to
prevent protesters from setting up tents and blocking a main road to Sanaa’s
airport.
The
president’s initiative, with amendments, could and should serve as a basis for
an inclusive settlement. The alternative is a conflict at least as grave as
that of 2011, when two parts of the army, one supporting Saleh and the other
the uprising, faced off in the capital. The situation today is more dangerous,
since the domestic political landscape is deeply fractured and multipolar. None
of the major political forces – the Huthis, Saleh’s GPC, Islah or Hadi – can
alone control the capital, nor is it clear that they would be able to restrain
their supporters if fighting erupts. Moreover, a conflagration in Sanaa almost
certainly would lead to a chaotic independence bid in the south, which is wracked
by political infighting and al-Qaeda activity. Regionally too the landscape has
changed, polarised along sectarian lines; widespread violence could draw Yemen
deeper into that divisive fight.
Continued
mediation by UN Special Envoy Jamal Benomar is necessary to achieve a
compromise, but primary responsibility lies with Yemenis to act in their
national interest. Many principles already have been agreed: a new, more
inclusive government with ministers whom the Huthis will have a role in
nominating; clarifying the competencies of the National Authority for
implementing NDC agreements; specifying an implementation timeline for NDC
outcomes; and more. Finding a compromise on the fuel subsidies and guarantees
for wider economic reform are the immediate sticking points. Now is the time to
reach a deal on this issue so that de-escalation and talks over the details of
NDC implementation can begin. Otherwise, growing tensions could undermine the
progress made thus far in negotiations – and even scuttle the country’s nascent
political settlement achieved through the NDC.
For
his part, President Hadi should streamline negotiation efforts, which thus far
have involved too many mediators and too few decision-makers. Further, the
president should take additional measures to ensure the state security services
do not needlessly provoke an already volatile situation. The Huthis must do
their part as well. Critics have long accused the movement of nefarious intent,
ranging from establishing an Iranian-inspired theocracy to building a
Hizbollah-style state within a state. Now they should demonstrate otherwise by
constructively engaging the president’s offer, where they disagree with it
recommending clear amendments, and ultimately accepting a solution that falls
short of all of their demands. The alternative is a conflict in which no group
will win and Yemen will lose.
fecha |
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28/02/2015| |
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30/01/2015| |
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20/01/2015| |
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07/01/2015| |
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23/12/2014| |
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10/12/2014| |
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05/12/2014| |
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02/12/2014| |
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09/11/2014| |
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03/11/2014| |
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30/10/2014| |
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30/10/2014| |
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22/10/2014| |
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18/10/2014| |
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13/10/2014| |
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23/09/2014| |
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15/08/2014| |
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25/07/2014| |
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21/06/2014| |
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21/06/2014| |
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13/06/2014| |
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22/05/2014| |
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15/05/2014| |
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13/05/2014| |
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29/04/2014| |
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22/04/2014| |
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08/04/2014| |
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17/02/2014| |
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27/01/2014| |
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23/01/2014| |
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13/01/2014| |
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05/01/2014| |
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26/12/2013| |
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06/11/2013| |
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18/10/2013| |
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17/10/2013| |
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08/10/2013| |
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05/10/2013| |
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01/10/2013| |
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22/09/2013| |
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06/09/2013| |
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03/09/2013| |
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02/09/2013| |
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09/08/2013| |
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09/08/2013| |
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31/07/2013| |
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31/07/2013| |
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28/07/2013| |
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27/06/2013| |
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26/06/2013| |
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22/06/2013| |
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19/06/2013| |
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14/06/2013| |
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05/06/2013| |
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29/05/2013| |
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29/05/2013| |
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21/05/2013| |
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16/05/2013| |
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14/05/2013| |
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13/05/2013| |
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08/05/2013| |
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07/05/2013| |
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06/05/2013| |
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02/05/2013| |
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30/04/2013| |
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27/04/2013| |
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17/04/2013| |
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12/04/2013| |
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11/04/2013| |
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08/04/2013| |
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04/04/2013| |
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02/04/2013| |
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01/04/2013| |
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19/03/2013| |
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13/03/2013| |
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07/03/2013| |
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04/03/2013| |
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04/03/2013| |
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01/03/2013| |
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26/02/2013| |
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20/02/2013| |
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19/02/2013| |
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18/02/2013| |
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15/02/2013| |
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06/02/2013| |
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22/01/2013| |
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18/01/2013| |
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18/12/2012| |
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05/12/2012| |
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03/12/2012| |
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28/11/2012| |
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12/11/2012| |
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01/11/2012| |
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25/10/2012| |
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19/10/2012| |
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19/10/2012| |
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10/09/2012| |
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06/09/2012| |
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27/08/2012| |
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22/08/2012| |
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17/08/2012| |
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16/08/2012| |
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14/08/2012| |
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09/08/2012| |
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07/08/2012| |
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03/08/2012| |
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01/08/2012| |
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01/08/2012| |
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01/08/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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28/07/2012| |
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27/07/2012| |
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27/07/2012| |
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27/07/2012| |
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27/07/2012| |
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24/07/2012| |
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24/07/2012| |
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24/07/2012| |
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18/07/2012| |
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16/07/2012| |
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13/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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05/07/2012| |
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28/06/2012| |
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26/06/2012| |
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25/06/2012| |
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12/06/2012| |
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12/06/2012| |
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11/06/2012| |
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07/06/2012| |
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19/05/2012| |
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19/05/2012| |
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16/05/2012| |
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10/05/2012| |
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07/05/2012| |
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04/05/2012| |
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02/05/2012| |
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27/04/2012| |
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24/04/2012| |
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23/04/2012| |
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16/04/2012| |
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11/04/2012| |
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06/04/2012| |
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05/04/2012| |
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02/04/2012| |
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01/04/2012| |
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30/03/2012| |
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27/03/2012| |
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21/03/2012| |
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21/03/2012| |
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17/03/2012| |
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17/03/2012| |
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15/03/2012| |
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15/03/2012| |
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06/03/2012| |
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06/03/2012| |
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04/03/2012| |
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04/03/2012| |
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29/02/2012| |
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29/02/2012| |
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29/02/2012| |
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24/02/2012| |
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24/02/2012| |
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24/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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23/02/2012| |
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17/02/2012| |
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16/02/2012| |
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03/11/2011| |
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02/11/2011| |
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12/10/2011| |
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11/10/2011| |
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04/10/2011| |
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27/09/2011| |
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27/09/2011| |
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24/09/2011| |
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23/09/2011| |
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15/09/2011| |
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14/09/2011| |
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12/09/2011| |
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09/09/2011| |
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09/09/2011| |
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06/09/2011| |
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06/09/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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23/08/2011| |
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22/08/2011| |
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22/08/2011| |
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14/08/2011| |
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08/08/2011| |
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05/08/2011| |
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05/08/2011| |
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04/08/2011| |
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04/08/2011| |
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29/07/2011| |
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27/07/2011| |
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23/07/2011| |
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22/07/2011| |
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17/07/2011| |
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17/07/2011| |
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07/07/2011| |
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07/07/2011| |
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03/07/2011| |
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03/07/2011| |
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28/06/2011| |
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28/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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16/06/2011| |
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07/06/2011| |
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07/06/2011| |
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31/05/2011| |
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31/05/2011| |
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28/05/2011| |
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28/05/2011| |
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25/05/2011| |
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24/05/2011| |
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24/05/2011| |
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07/05/2011| |
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07/05/2011| |
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06/05/2011| |
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06/05/2011| |
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05/05/2011| |
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05/05/2011| |
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03/05/2011| |
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03/05/2011| |
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02/05/2011| |
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02/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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01/05/2011| |
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22/04/2011| |
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22/04/2011| |
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18/04/2011| |
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18/04/2011| |
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10/04/2011| |
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07/04/2011| |
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07/04/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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25/03/2011| |
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17/03/2011| |
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11/03/2011| |
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22/02/2011| |
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22/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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08/02/2011| |
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04/02/2011| |
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04/02/2011| |
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28/01/2011| |
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19/01/2011| |
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13/01/2011| |
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01/01/2011| |
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31/12/2010| |
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23/12/2010| |
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05/12/2010| |
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02/12/2010| |
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28/11/2010| |
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27/11/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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22/11/2010| |
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18/11/2010| |
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01/11/2010| |
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26/08/2010| |
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26/08/2010| |
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24/08/2010| |
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24/08/2010| |
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06/08/2010| |
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28/06/2010| |
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18/06/2010| |
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16/06/2010| |
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11/06/2010| |
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19/05/2010| |
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02/05/2010| |
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02/05/2010| |
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25/04/2010| |
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04/04/2010| |
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11/03/2010| |
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02/03/2010| |
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18/02/2010| |
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20/11/2009| |
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20/11/2009| |
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06/11/2009| |
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01/11/2009| |
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27/10/2009| |
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22/10/2009| |
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05/09/2009| |
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31/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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15/08/2009| |
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02/08/2009| |
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02/08/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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18/07/2009| |
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18/07/2009| |
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11/03/2009| |
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11/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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10/03/2009| |
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17/12/2008| |
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14/12/2008| |
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02/10/2008| |
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02/10/2008| |
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24/08/2008| |
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24/08/2008| |
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08/08/2008| |
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08/08/2008| |
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14/05/2008| |
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02/04/2008| |
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02/04/2008| |
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12/01/2008| |
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19/05/2007| |
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19/05/2007| |
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10/05/2007| |
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10/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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02/04/2007| |
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01/04/2007| |
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29/03/2007| |
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16/03/2007| |
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16/03/2007| |
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05/03/2007| |
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05/03/2007| |
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28/02/2007| |
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26/02/2007| |
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26/02/2007| |
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26/01/2007| |
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26/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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15/12/2006| |
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15/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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28/11/2006| |
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11/11/2006| |
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08/11/2006| |
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30/10/2006| |
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11/10/2006| |
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15/09/2006| |
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