Team Putin is quietly fueling antidemocratic ideology in the region.
As the
dust settles around the Wagner Group revolt in Russia, inquiring minds want to
know if Vladimir Putin is better or worse off than before the apparent
challenge to his authoritarian rule. The answer matters to the Western
Hemisphere, where Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Russian security council
and one of Mr. Putin’s closest confidants, spearheads a shadowy spy network
intent on undermining U.S. interests.
It may
surprise some Americans to learn that Mexico is an especially high-value
target.
The
Putin-Patrushev strategy in the Americas is more than a tit-for-tat effort to
counteract U.S. support for democracy in Europe. The destabilization of
Western-style democracy in the region is central to the pair’s shared dream of
restoring the global power of Mother Russia.
It’s
reasonable to assume that Mr. Putin’s aspirations for a new empire aren’t
shared by everyone in the Russian power structure. His costly assault on
Ukraine has been a flop, either because he mismanaged it or because he
underestimated the enemy—or both. In any case, it doesn’t project strength.
If Mr.
Putin’s star is falling, the colonial outposts built and nurtured by Mr.
Patrushev—in Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua and, yes, Mexico, among
others—could be at risk. Conversely, Putin staying-power implies continued
clear sailing for Agent Patrushev.
Messrs.
Putin and Patrushev have a relationship dating to the 1970s, when both were KGB
agents. From 1999 to 2008 Mr. Patrushev was the director of the Russian
intelligence agency known as the FSB—the restructured KGB. He is credited with
bringing Mr. Putin to power and has been called the most likely successor if
the boss retires.
For now
Mr. Patrushev serves as Mr. Putin’s top spook, spanning the globe to help put
down color revolutions, throw elections and challenge the unipolar multilateral
system that has taken root since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Some of
Mr. Patrushev’s work in the Americas is public, like his February consultations
on security matters in Caracas with Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Moscow
is a major supplier of military equipment and services to Venezuela. The work
of Wagner mercenaries is more behind-the-scenes. They’ve butted heads with the
Russian military over Ukraine, but it’s doubtful they go abroad without the
help of Russian embassies, where Mr. Patrushev holds considerable sway. In 2019
Wagner was brought into Venezuela as a regime enforcer and to train special
forces. People familiar with the matter say Wagner also has provided security
for the Venezuelan oil company.
In March
Mr. Patrushev visited Raúl Castro in Cuba. Russia forgave $32 billion in Cuban
debt in 2014 and in the decade since the Castro crime family and its associates
have grown closer to Mr. Patrushev. In May Havana announced that it will send
troops to train in Belarus to show solidarity with the Ukraine invasion. Last
week Cuba and Russia announced they would work toward closer “technical
military” cooperation.
Russia’s
support for Nicaraguan despot Daniel Ortega is also an open secret. Less
noticed is Moscow’s obsession with quietly fueling antidemocratic ideology
elsewhere in the Americas—with little push-back from the U.S.
In 2020
Colombia kicked out two Russian spies who were reportedly working under
diplomatic cover at the embassy in Bogotá. Colombia didn’t detail their
transgressions, but Reuters said local media described their work as mining for
“military intelligence and information about the energy industry and mineral
commodities.” Neither reported to Mr. Patrushev’s bureaucracy directly, but
both were intelligence agents under the broader control of Mr. Putin’s bestie.
In
Colombia’s 2018 presidential election Russia allegedly engaged in a
disinformation campaign in support of then-candidate Gustavo Petro. In the 2022
presidential election Russia again used disinformation and other dirty tricks
to sow distrust in the democratic process and to help Mr. Petro, who won that
contest. The U.S.-Colombia partnership of many years has come apart.
Russian
intelligence activity in Mexico may be the most dangerous. In March 24, 2022,
testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Glen VanHerck,
commander of U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense
Command, sounded the alarm. “There are actors who are very aggressive and
active all across the” Northern Command, he said, “including the Bahamas and
Mexico, China and Russia.” He noted that “the largest portion” of Russian
intelligence personnel “in the world is in Mexico right now” and “they keep an
eye very closely on their opportunities to have influence on U.S. opportunities
and access.”
Earlier
this year Mr. Patrushev predicted that Mexico would “sooner or later” recover
the land it lost to the U.S. in 1848. I doubt that. But I have no doubt Mr.
Patrushev will go to his grave still trying to make it happen.
***
O’Grady@wsj.com.
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27/01/2015| |
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22/12/2014| |
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09/12/2014| |
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15/11/2014| |
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24/09/2014| |
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15/09/2014| |
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26/08/2014| |
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11/08/2014| |
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21/07/2014| |
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18/07/2014| |
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17/06/2014| |
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16/05/2014| |
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19/02/2014| |
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03/02/2014| |
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07/01/2014| |
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03/12/2013| |
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26/11/2013| |
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23/10/2013| |
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17/10/2013| |
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15/10/2013| |
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17/09/2013| |
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27/08/2013| |
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13/05/2013| |
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10/03/2013| |
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27/02/2013| |
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07/01/2013| |
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26/12/2012| |
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11/12/2012| |
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04/12/2012| |
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28/11/2012| |
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29/10/2012| |
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30/04/2012| |
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19/10/2011| |
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27/09/2011| |
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24/08/2011| |
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10/08/2011| |
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26/07/2011| |
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12/07/2011| |
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21/06/2011| |
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15/06/2011| |
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25/05/2011| |
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08/04/2011| |
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23/03/2011| |
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17/03/2011| |
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01/03/2011| |
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28/02/2011| |
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13/02/2011| |
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29/12/2010| |
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09/02/2010| |
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08/02/2010| |
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01/02/2010| |
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27/01/2010| |
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10/08/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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28/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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24/03/2009| |
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05/03/2009| |
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05/03/2009| |
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05/02/2009| |
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15/01/2009| |
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03/12/2008| |
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03/12/2008| |
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25/11/2008| |
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25/11/2008| |
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12/11/2008| |
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12/11/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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06/09/2008| |
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06/09/2008| |
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27/08/2008| |
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27/08/2008| |
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28/07/2008| |
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28/07/2008| |
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08/07/2008| |
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08/07/2008| |
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23/06/2008| |
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23/06/2008| |
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12/06/2008| |
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12/06/2008| |
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15/04/2008| |
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09/04/2008| |
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03/04/2008| |
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11/03/2008| |
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25/02/2008| |
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07/02/2008| |
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29/12/2007| |
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18/11/2007| |
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29/10/2007| |
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26/09/2007| |
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20/09/2007| |
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05/08/2007| |
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14/07/2007| |
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30/05/2007| |
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30/05/2007| |
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17/01/2007| |
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17/01/2007| |
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10/10/2006| |
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28/07/2006| |
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06/03/2006| |
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21/02/2006| |
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09/07/2005| |
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24/08/2003| |
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24/08/2003| |
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