Some uncertainty was raised yesterday regarding whether President Ahmadinejad would actually meet the midnight deadline set for his submission of nominees for his second-term government. Some media reports said he had missed it although it appears in the end that Ahmadinejad did meet the deadline, even if no official statement has yet been carried by parliament to verify a list of nominees. Ahmadinejad was also scheduled to address Iranians yesterday but the speech was delayed until today. Ahmadinejad already caused some confusion late last week when he leaked details of six nominees directly to the press rather than following the normal procedure of submitting a full list of nominees to the Majlis (parliament). Although the president has confounded observers with his unconventional style in the past, he may now be attempting to play for time in delaying the official publication of the list, an indication of the pressured political atmosphere and the arguably altered environment created since the 12 June presidential election and the subsequent eruption of mass protests.

As reported by IHS Global Insight, Ahmadinejad’s nominations do not present any fundamental surprises in that the core is made up of individuals who are perceived as being loyal to the president. In that sense this second-term line-up is similar to Ahmadinejad’s 2005 cabinet—a majority of which consisted of former members of the ideologically motivated elite Islamic Republic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in which Ahmadinejad himself served.

The full list as published by ISNA and relayed by Agence France-Presse (AFP) is as follows:

• Minister of Foreign Affairs: Manouchehr Mottaki
• Minister of Oil: Masoud Mir Kazemi
• Minister of Defence: Ahmad Vahidi
• Minister of Intelligence: Heyder Moslehi
• Minister of Justice: Morteza Bakhtiari
• Minister of Interior: Mostafa Mohammad Najjar
• Minister of Economy: Shamseddin Hosseini
• Minister of Commerce: Mehdi Ghazanfari
• Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance: Mohammad Hosseini
• Minister of Education: Sousan Keshavarz
• Minister of Cooperatives: Mohammad Abbasi
• Minister of Welfare and Social Security: Fatemeh Ajorlou
• Minister of Industries and Mines: Ali Akbar Mehrabian
• Minister of Agriculture Jihad: Sadeq Khalilian
• Minister of Communications and Information Technology: Reza Taghipour
• Minister of Energy: Mohammad Aliabadi
• Minister of Health: Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi
• Minister of Housing and Urban Development: Abdolreza Sheikholeslami
• Minister of Labour and Social Affairs: Ali Nikzad
• Minister of Science, Research and Technology: Kamran Daneshjoo
• Minister of Transport: Hamid Behbahani

Keeping the IRGC Close

Of the nominees Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki plus Roads and Transportation Minister Hamid Behbahani would retain their positions held in the previous administration. Defence minister and high-ranking IRGC officer, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, will move to the interior ministry while defence would be the responsibility of Ahmad Vahidi, the former deputy defence minister, an IRGC commander who—according to state-run Press TV yesterday— has also headed the political, defence, and security commission of the Expediency Council. Furthermore, the intelligence ministry would be run by Heydar Mohseli, who has been Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative in the widely feared Basij forces (the volunteer militia arm of the IRGC). These appointments in particular signal that Ahmadinejad is not only rewarding the ever-loyal IRGC by keeping veterans and high-rankers close—the IRGC and the Basij have certainly proved their loyalty to the government and the Supreme Leader over the past two months of turbulence—but also that the growing political opposition to his government has reinforced an effective partnership with the IRGC which has grown in power and scope under Ahmadinejad’s rule.

Although the interior, defence and intelligence ministry nominations will undoubtedly worry reformists who are in minority in government, the choice for the oil ministry and the three women who have been nominated for the first time will likely raise opposition with the conservatives that dominate the Majlis. The oil ministry is proposed to go to the current minister of commerce, Massoud Mir-Kazemi (another nominee with IRGC links who reportedly has very little experience in the life-line oil sector). His nomination will likely meet opposition among lawmakers who have continuously stressed that the president ought to ensure that nominees have relevant and extensive experience within their fields. Similarly the choice of Sousan Keshavarz, one of the three women nominees, as the new minister for education may raise opposition. According to the New York Times today, Keshavarz held a deputy position in the ministry for one year. The report quotes a member of the Majlis’ education committee, Asadollah Abbasi, saying ''if Ahmadinejad nominates Keshavarz as education minister, it will be clear that he knows nothing about education''. Similar objections may be raised over Fatemeh Ajorlou, the proposed welfare and social security minister. Although the third woman nominee Marzieh Vahid Dastierdi—a highly conservative obstetrician may raise concerns among reformists at least. Keshavarz, Dastierdi, and Ajourlou would be the first women cabinet members if approved; however, if the president is aiming to pacify the wave of opposition which has emerged from women in the past months by taking this modernising stance, he will probably be disappointed.

Outlook and Implications

The coming weeks will be crucial for Ahmadinejad, who has emerged weakened from the past two months of political and street opposition to his allegedly fraudulent re-election  and with his legitimacy severely challenged. The mostly conservative Majlis will heavily scrutinise his list and may end up refuting a number of nominees, as they did in 2005. Today, deputy speaker of the Majlis, Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, said he and others believed ''that close to five ministers proposed by Mr. Ahmadinejad will not receive a vote of confidence'', reportedly also saying that the rest would only receive marginal approval, according to Press TV. If a series of nominees are rejected, Ahmadinejad’s legitimacy will be further damaged, although at this point there little hope for the president overhauling his political agenda to pacify either reformists or the opposition on the ground. On the other hand, dependent as he is for the next four years on a functional relationship with the Majlis (which has relatively extensive scrutinising powers) some of the current nominees may change—if lawmakers decide—to individuals which would appease conservatives. This would at least temporarily re-seal a partnership of necessity between conservatives which may not necessarily like Ahmadinejad’s style but support him as a hardliner who has the support of the Supreme Leader. However, if their annoyance with the often-defiant Ahmadinejad continues to grow, as seen by his tardy compliance with the Supreme Leader’s request recently  Ahmadinejad’s second term will be set for further difficulties.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)