Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The Conservative government has been unapologetically right-wing economically, and conservative socially, to date, and while this has appealed to the party's core support it has also given the opposition parties greater opportunity to win over moderate voters.

Implications

Yesterday's reshuffle aimed to soften some of the sharp edges, bumping up the environment into the government's "top five priorities" and reducing the public visibility of notable social conservative Vic Toews.

Outlook

The changes have to be seen in the context of looming elections. Cynics suggest Harper's new-found enthusiasm for the environment is mainly about out-manoeuvring the opposition parties, but polls show the Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck—unfortunately a recipe for another vulnerable minority government.

Green Shift

As expected, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced a wide-ranging Cabinet reshuffle yesterday. Most key ministers kept their seats, but the many changes further down the pecking order show that he is keen to inject fresh dynamism. He has also responded to the widespread criticism of his government's cautious environmental stance by replacing current Environment Minister Rona Ambrose. This is an interesting move, as previously Harper was unapologetic about the government's opposition to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change and preference for less economically disruptive environmental policies. Harper had been very close to U.S. President George W. Bush on such questions, but now it seems Canada will take a more proactive environmental stance. The green shift echoes similar moves in several key European states of late. Germany is seeking to harness this momentum with its current presidency of the G8.

The 37-year-old Ambrose was widely criticised for her relative lack of experience and her unconvincing defence of the government's modest climate-change policies. She is replaced by the more experienced (but ironically one year younger) current Treasury Board President John Baird. Harper told reporters: "We're clearly determined that we need to do more on the environment. We recognize that particularly when it comes to clean air and climate change that Canadians expect a lot more." How much this will mean in terms of actual policy change, however, is unclear. Baird is better known for his ability to take on the opposition than for his environmental credentials. The plan outlined by Ambrose in October to tackle climate change promised to reduce the country's CO2 emissions by 45-65% by 2050, based on 2003 targets, but emissions would actually continue to rise until 2020. The Kyoto Protocol demanded a much more ambitious target of a 6.0% reduction below 1990 levels by 2012, although even this was widely felt by climate scientists to be insufficient. The government argued that Kyoto was unrealistic—indeed, emissions have already risen by 26.6% since 1990 (mainly under Liberal governments). Harper conceded: "We realize that Canada's environmental report card is probably the worst of the industrialized countries." The prime minister is also clearly mindful that all the other major parties have planned to make the environment a key rallying call. By adopting a more proactive stance he can hope to dent their electoral appeal. Harper is certainly not abandoning his wider centre-right stance. He said yesterday that the new team's main priorities would be lowering taxes, fiscal discipline and the fiscal imbalance between federal and provincial government, tougher policing, a proactive foreign policy, and tougher environmental action. This platform—with the notable exception of the environmental addition—does not differ much from the previous list.

The Other Changes

Ambrose does not leave the government—she instead takes the intergovernmental affairs portfolio, where she will hope to attract less controversy. Former Ontario minister Rob Nicholson has meanwhile been named Attorney-General, replacing Vic Toews. The latter, controversial for his tough social conservatism, moves to fill Baird's vacated spot at the Treasury Board. The latter role is important within government, but takes Toews largely out of the public eye. Nicholson is not regarded as a social conservative hardliner; another indication that Harper is trying to rub some of the sharp edges off his right-wing government. Immigration Minister Monte Solberg has been replaced by Diane Finlay, while Helena Guergis becomes secretary of state (deputy to Foreign Minister Peter MacKay). She is one of five new secretaries of state: a new sub-cabinet tier of government. In all, there are 19 changes in the government line-up.

Outlook and Implications

The reshuffle clearly had the coming general election firmly in mind. The minority Conservative government is unlikely to survive into 2008, and could well be brought down by the opposition parties as soon as March, when the budget is voted on. Harper may even seek to engineer his own downfall if the opposition does not pounce, in the hope of returning with a secure majority. The Liberals—with newly selected leader Stéphane Dion—have high hopes of returning to power, but Harper has outperformed most expectations and has scored some notable successes despite his vulnerable position. Unfortunately, the most likely electoral outcome is that neither major party will secure an outright majority, and will instead have to turn once more to the smaller parties. This situation would be more comfortable if a formal coalition was formed, but the smaller parties are uncomfortably radical (either left-wing or Quebec separatist).

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