Global Insight Perspective

Significance

There is still pressure on Turkey from all sides to approve peacekeeping forces for a UN force in Lebanon; the cabinet has agreed to a force, but this remains subject to parliamentary approval. Domestic security concerns remain high on the agenda too, following a rebel attack on a tourist resort and the commercial capital Istanbul yesterday.

Implications

Although his influence is minimal, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer has opposed a Lebanon deployment. Speculation has begun that the military may not back Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, not least as it known to want to crack down on domestic rebels.

Outlook

Parliamentary approval is possible, with the apparent heavy lobbying of deputies from the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party. However, a Lebanon deployment would not be a popular move, and would delay any measures to tackle rebel separatists.

Following weeks of discussion, the cabinet has agreed on the deployment of Turkish troops in a UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon. It is preparing to seek parliamentary approval for the move as soon as possible. Justice Minister Cemil Cicek has said that a failure to become involved in a regional issue would be against Turkish national interests. However, support for a deployment is not universal, and some see the involvement of NATO's only Muslim nation in the force as controversial, despite pressure from the United States, European Union (EU) and Israel for a deployment. President Sezer said last week that he did not believe the current conditions lent themselves to a Turkish deployment; his stance is in open conflict with that of Prime Minister Erdogan.

Since Sezer made the comments, at the official handover of power to the new chief of the armed forces, there has been speculation that the military implicitly opposes a Lebanon deployment. Erdogan's early assurance that a force would be dispatched caused disarray in parliament, as he was prepared for a deployment being arranged without the UN having agreed a peacekeeping force, and without having sought parliamentary approval, as the constitution requires. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan is due to visit the country soon and is expected to reassure deputies that Turkish troops will not be forced to disarm the Lebanese armed Hizbollah movement.

A rift also exists within AK over the logic of the deployment. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul is at odds with Erdogan, even though Cicek told reporters yesterday that all ministers had voiced their opinions ahead of the decision being taken. Parliamentary approval is expected to be forthcoming, as there is support for the move in AK. However, it will require support from some opposition deputies, and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is opposed.

The conflict has inspired strong reactions from many parliamentarians. Several deputies that were members of a Turkish-Israeli “friendship” group have left the group in recent weeks, in protest against the Israeli response to Hizbollah kidnapping two Israeli soldiers. Hizbollah leaders, meanwhile, admitted this week that they would not have ordered the abduction had they foreseen the descent into war.

Pressure from Within

The domestic security situation is also prompting concerns. A series of bomb blasts yesterday in the tourist resort of Antalya and the commercial capital, Istanbul, left three people dead and many injured. The militant Kurdish Freedom Falcons (TAK), an offshoot of the rebel separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), claimed the attacks. The group has warned that Turkey is unsafe for tourists; around 20 foreigners were injured in the latest blasts, which mirror attacks last year. TAK claimed that the attacks were in protest at the continued imprisonment of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, a stance not helping the PKK's insistence that it is not connected to TAK. The government refuses to negotiate with either entity, despite the PKK mooting a new ceasefire. Turkey has been hoping to develop its tourism potential further, but global concerns about security have not helped. One PKK rebel was detained yesterday in the Aegean city of Izmir, apparently preparing for a bomb attack. The suspect is also being questioned in connection with earlier attacks in Izmir in July. Although such attacks are rare—and the bulk of conflict is between rebels and the military in the south-east—they have increased in frequency and should be considered as a potential risk.

Understandably, the government is down-playing any significance to the blasts, but the military—which has sought to broaden its powers to crack down on militants, particularly in the south–east—is targeting the rebel threat. New armed forces chief General Yasar Buyukanit—who took over officially from his predecessor General Hilmi Ozkok this week—has noted that Turkey has never been confronted with such high risks. Of course, it is in his interests to ensure that military spending remains high. The potential remains for conflict over the issue, even though Buyukanit has assured that the armed forces will stay out of local and domestic politics.

Outlook and Implications

Cicek has told reporters that the government holds a different interpretation of events in Lebanon to Sezer, brushing aside the president's concerns. The president has no formal role in the decision, his influence on foreign policy is largely ceremonial. Although he has disagreed with the government’s line in the past, he is unlikely to sway deputies to defy Erdogan again. However, more concerns lie over the potential lack of military support for a deployment. Buyukanit has made it clear that he sees the threats to Turkey's security as being greater than ever, and may not wish to increase the risks being faced.

The last time parliament was consulted on an international deployment was in 2003, when it refused to allow U.S. troops to use Turkey as a base ahead of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.This has affected Turkish-U.S. relations ever since, with a slow and painful recovery of faith. Turkey still believes that the United States has not offered sufficient support in dealing with the rebel separatist threat to Turkey, with many rebels based across the border in northern Iraq. The concern now is that a Lebanon deployment would cause conflict with Hizbollah. According to the New Anatolian, AK deputies are being lobbied to approve the deployment in parliament, claiming that "some Western countries" have asked them to support the peace process between Israel and Lebanon.

The peace process’s delicate state could do with Turkish support. The country has argued its role as a regional mediator and bridge between east and west, and certainly has strong ties with neighbouring countries that will assist in any peace process. However, traditionally strong relations with Israel were endangered when Turkey received officials from Hamas, the Palestinian Authority (PA) election winner, earlier this year. Also, Turkey does not wish to alienate Lebanon and Hizbollah. However, Erdogan seems bent on a course to ensure deployment, probably in the hope that this would help restore better relations with foreign powers and cement the image of Turkey as a regional power broker.

Raul Dary

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