Ethnic Tension, Corruption and Issue of Succession

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ended the fourth plenary session of the central commission on 18 September with a pledge to crack down on ethnic separatists and conduct an anti-corruption drive. However, there was no announcement of Vice-President Xi Jinping’s expected appointment to the powerful military commission, seen as a major stepping stone to the leadership position in China.

Questions Emerge over Xi Jinping’s Political Future

Xi’s appointment was widely predicted ahead of the four-day session held in Beijing last week .The conventional view is that the holding of the key military post would have ensured Xi’s rise to general secretary of the communist party in 2012, when President Hu Jintao is due to step down. Indeed, Hu was awarded the post immediately after the same party meeting ten years ago.

Following this, doubts have emerged over whether the transfer of power from the fourth to the fifth generation of leaders will be smooth. The lack of news about Xi after the meeting could signal that there is some resistance within the party elite towards Xi’s ascendency to power. It could also indicate that he does not have a strong support base within the army, an important centre of power within China. The political status of China’s leader is premised on three positions—secretary general of the party, president, and chairman of the military commission. Resistance from any of these three power bases would constitute a serious obstacle to Xi’s consolidation of power. Alternatively, Xi’s failure to secure the post could also underscore the increasing number of checks and balances within the system. It could be argued that the party is developing a more complex, sophisticated mechanism for leadership succession with no single contender in the running for the leadership position.

Personal Profile

Xi became the heir apparent to Hu at the party congress in 2007, when he was promoted to the nine-member standing committee of the ruling politburo. He was later named vice-president. A member of the so-called "princeling group", he established a strong reputation when holding office in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. Most recently, he oversaw the staging of the Beijing Olympics in 2008 and has been handed the responsibility for celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China on 1 October. He is known as a vocal advocate of market reform and is considered acceptable to all the main factions that dominate internal politics, including those with ties to former president Hu Jintao as well as those linked with him.

Pledge to Crackdown on Separatism

The meeting also saw the Communist Party pledge to continue their campaign against ethnic separatism in order to maintain national unity and harmonious social relations. The brief statement on the separatism issue was the latest in a slew of comments by the government as it battles to keep a lid on simmering tension between the Han Chinese and Uighur communities in Xinjiang province. One hundred and ninety seven people were killed during ethnic clashes in early July, with seven people so far having been convicted for their involvement in the violence. All of those found guilty are ethnic Uighurs.

Government Push for Greater Transparency

Another major theme of the plenary session emphasised new measures to clamp down on corruption. Just two days after the meeting, stricter regulations were announced requiring officials to disclose their assets and investment activity, such as overseas business dealings of family members. However, it remains unclear whether such a reform will be effective as the rules will be contingent on the degree of disclosure and the rank of government official who will be held accountable to it. China’s leadership has carried out numerous anti-corruption drives in recent years, but the problem persists both at the senior and local levels of power.

Implications and Outlook

The absence of news about Xi does not mean that he is no longer the most likely candidate to succeed the president. Indeed, he could still win the position as vice-chairman of the military commission at a later date, or at next year’s party meeting. It should be noted that there is no official procedure in place for succession in China. Also, the outcome of the central committee meeting could prove to be more fruitful than it now appears, with a full report on the group’s discussions expected to be published soon. However, a decision to wait does indicate that Xi’s political success may depend on a phase of factional bargaining, as the different power groups in the party struggle to reach a balance over the succession question.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)