Zelaya Rebuffed

Honduras's Congress voted yesterday by an overwhelming majority to reject ousted president Manuel Zelaya's return to power. The move came three days after a controversial election that saw opposition candidate Porfirio Lobo chosen as the country's new president, set to take office on 27 January 2010. As previously agreed between the interim government and Zelaya’s supporters, the U.S.-backed accord of 30 October required that Congress take a position on Zelaya. Of the total 125 deputies gathered in the legislative assembly, 111 voted against Zelaya's reinstatement, and in favour of the decree that saw him ousted on 28 June. This decree was approved hours after Zelaya had been taken by the military at gunpoint and thrown on an aeroplane to Costa Rica. After nine hours of debate, only 14 lawmakers backed Zelaya's return, while three others were absent, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports. Lobo's National Party (PN), with 55 seats in Congress, voted against Zelaya's return, while Zelaya’s own Liberal Party of Honduras (PLH) was divided. Before the vote, the president of Congress's constitutional branch, PN deputy Rigoberto Chang Castillo, told the press that "whoever retracted" the 28 June decision to oust Zelaya would be "violating the constitution". His threat may have played a role in the outcome, which has effectively ratified the coup as legitimate. The arguments put forward by the majority of Congress members who voted against Zelaya’s return focused on the alleged influence of leftist Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez on Zelaya, and the latter's swing to the left while in power. Meanwhile, Zelaya remains holed up in the Brazilian embassy, from where he called yesterday "on the people to keep fighting the dictatorship". Interim government leader Roberto Micheletti—who stepped down temporarily during the elections—returned to power yesterday, pending Lobo's arrival in office on 27 January 2010 .

International Community Remains Divided

The elections themselves have yet to be recognised by the majority of Latin American countries, led by Brazil. The United States has by contrast endorsed Lobo's victory, but the validity of the October accord it backed is now in dispute. Congress's decision will do little to assuage international tensions. Zelaya called the U.S.-backed accord "dead" after he was unable to form a government of national unity before the polls, as previously agreed. Meanwhile, the United States continues to cling to the accord as a safe way out of the crisis, giving Honduran institutions such as the Supreme Court and Congress the final say on Zelaya's fate. The likes of Brazil and Argentina, on the other hand, demand the unconditional return of Zelaya to power so he can complete his mandate. Indeed, the 28 June military coup is, not unsurprisingly, seen as a dangerous precedent in a region scarred by a history of military coups and dictatorships. The United States does have some supporters in the region, however, notably Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, and Colombia. Others in the international community, such as Spain and Mexico, have maintained an ambivalent stance, stressing the need to re-establish constitutional order in Honduras, and hinting at eventual recognition of the elections.

Outlook and Implications

The big question now is: what will Zelaya do next? His options are either to leave the embassy and be judged for his alleged attacks on the constitution, or to go into exile. Nicaragua or El Salvador are potential destinations, as well as his staunch supporter Brazil. He could potentially receive an amnesty from Lobo once the latter assumes office, but this is unlikely; Zelaya’s mere presence in Honduras stirs controversy and political instability. The negative Congressional vote was expected, given the previous Supreme Court decision . With 18 separate charges pending against him, and with the tables turned against him thanks to the heavy-handed crackdown on his supporters, the least painful option for Zelaya appears to be exile. So far, it seems the Honduran political and business elite is managing to keep a lid on the threat to it posed by leftist populism, which Zelaya had started to exploit. However, grave income inequalities will continue to stir social unrest, and could well destabilise the political system in the future.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)