Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The Socialist Party must decide on its candidate for the presidency at a meeting of party members in November. The runaway favourite is the current regional president of Poitou-Charentes, Ségolène Royal, but the party is riddled with several other ambitious political heavyweights jostling for the candidacy.

Implications

Jospin’s reappearance onto the political scene four years after his humiliating defeat at the hands of far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen in the first round of the 2002 presidential elections added to the confusion and inter-party tensions within the PS. These tensions are unlikely to go away because Jospin has failed to endorse Royal, a decision that will surely aid her challengers.

Outlook

For the PS, the first major hurdle is the investiture of a candidate for the presidency. It is hoped that if Royal is selected, the party will rally behind her; in reality, the impressive public support she currently garners is not matched within certain sections of her party.

Jospin: The Comeback Kid?

Lionel Jospin, Socialist Party (PS) prime minister from 1995 to 2002, declared this morning on French radio that he would not be challenging favourite Ségolène Royal to become the party's official presidential candidate in 2007. Jospin explained that he was unable to muster enough support within the party ranks, and was thus withdrawing his challenge, so as not to prove “divisive”, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). His decision was welcomed by prominent members of the party as “wise” and “responsible”, owing to the ongoing internal issues afflicting the party ahead of the crucial investiture vote in November. Jospin, however, has made no secret of his disdain for Royal, and this morning he once more refused to support her, although he did not say who he would be backing instead.

Jospin’s well-timed return to the political fold after four years in the wilderness had been expected. After his humiliating first-round defeat at the hands of far-right National Front (FN) leader Jean-Marie Le Pen in the 2002 presidential elections, Jospin retired from politics, leaving his party in crisis, from which it has since struggled to recover. His reappearance as a convenient rassembleur for the PS just one year before elections was “too little, too late”; the party has moved on, with Royal leading the polls ahead of next year’s elections.

Will Ségo Get Her Moment of Glory?

There has been much talk of Ségolène Royal leading the PS into a new political dawn. The French press adore her media-friendly style, and have afforded her maximum front-page coverage over the past few months. Royal has not been afraid to flaunt her feminine credentials in a country whose political system is still largely dominated by elitist, ageing males. Her youthful attitude and warm persona have definitely struck a chord with a large proportion of the French public keen on a change of image within politics. Nonetheless, widespread public support for Royal has curiously not translated into a similar level of backing within her own party. Several prominent PS deputies have criticised her for her lack of experience in high office, and for her courting of media attention. Royal has only held junior ministerial portfolios under previous socialist governments. Furthermore, she has been accused of a having centre-left platform, which sits uneasily with the traditional socialist principles of the party. Finally, Royal is seen to have already commenced her presidential campaign, making high-profile foreign trips to raise her international profile, even though she has not been officially nominated. This has led to accusations of “style over substance” from some within the party. Nonetheless, no-one can deny that Royal appears to be the only person on the French left who can take on the expected candidate of the centre-right, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy. Whether her own party allows her to do this remains doubtful. In November’s vote, Royal will face competition from PS heavyweights Laurent Fabius, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and Jack Lang, all experienced politicians with prestigious portfolios. Her partner and party leader, François Hollande, has also, surprisingly, not ruled himself out of the race, depending on how much support he can rally.

Outlook and Implications

Jospin may have made a “wise and responsible” decision by ruling himself out of the race to be the PS’s presidential candidate, but the reality is that he never really had any chance of being nominated, and by running he would have split the vote between those he favours, and who have a better chance of beating Royal. Although Jospin has not publicly declared so, it is thought that he will lend his support to Fabius, who has long had ambitions for the presidency, and who is likely to run as an independent, even if he does not gain the party's backing.

Therein lies the most serious problem for the PS, and for the French left. Should Royal be officially nominated, as is widely expected, the party must rally behind her wholeheartedly, or else it will splinter. The challengers to Royal are influential, and could decide to run anyway as independents, which would split the left vote and pretty much assure the centre-right of victory next year. For the benefit of the PS, it is possible that Royal’s nomination will be supported as party members hope to gain prominent portfolios in a new socialist government following legislative elections, also scheduled in 2007. This is nonetheless a risky strategy for the challengers.

Meanwhile, what of Sarkozy? Polls consistently predict that a second-round run-off between Sarkozy and Royal is the most likely scenario, but it will be a close race to the finish. For many within the French public, Sarkozy’s tough-talking rhetoric on immigration and crime, combined with the government’s promising economic record, is attractive. However, Sarkozy’s nomination is not yet assured either. With speculation mounting daily, and with only eight months before elections, the leading candidates would do well to remember that opinion polls count for little, and any complacency at this stage by either side could prove expensive come the 2007 elections.

Contact

Raul Dary

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Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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