"Flash" data show that underlying German economic growth remained robust during the fourth quarter of 2010 despite a temporary dampening influence from construction investment.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: German growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter
(q/q) during the fourth quarter of 2010 represents a further slowdown after an
exceptional 2.3% q/q increase during the second quarter and a 0.7% q/q rise in
the third quarter. Growth momentum continued to be driven during the quarter by
investment in equipment and net exports, however.
Implications: Notwithstanding risks related to some
overheating emerging economies and the lingering Eurozone debt crisis, the
German economy is demonstrating solid domestic resilience to such potentially
dampening factors. Persistently buoyant leading indicators of late signal that
the German upswing will continue unabated in the months ahead.
Outlook: IHS Global Insight's forthcoming February
detailed forecast predicts that calendar-adjusted GDP will expand by 2.7% (2.6%
unadjusted) in 2011, following growth of 3.5% (3.6%) in 2010.
Germany's Economic Recovery Underpinned by Structural
Developments
According to "flash" data from the Federal
Statistical Office (FSO), the German economy increased 0.4% quarter-on-quarter
(q/q) in the fourth quarter of 2010, adjusted for seasonal and calendar
factors. This followed hardly revised quarterly growth rates of 0.6% in the
first quarter, 2.2% in the second, and 0.7% in the third. The second-quarter
growth surge had benefited from various one-off factors, meaning that this
quarter had not been representative of the underlying growth pace in any case.
The moderate further slowdown between the third and fourth quarters of 2010 was
mainly due to a slump in construction investment at the end of the year caused
by extraordinarily severe winter weather during December. The annual rate of
growth, again calendar adjusted, nudged up from 3.9% to 4.0%. As in the third
quarter, there was basically no calendar influence in the fourth quarter,
meaning that the annual rate in unadjusted terms also increased from 3.9% to
4.0%.
All major components apart from construction investment
apparently contributed positively to economic growth during the fourth quarter,
underlining that a broad-based upswing has now been firmly established. It
remains the case that improvements in competitiveness during the past decade
and the flight to quality in the wake of the Eurozone debt crisis—which is
keeping interest rates at much lower levels than warranted purely from the
perspective of Germany's cyclical situation—are providing lasting impulses for domestic
demand. The ongoing recovery in the labour market is leading to strengthening
consumer spending.
Net Exports Apparently Deliver Larger Contribution to
Growth
Detailed data, notably for the individual expenditure
components, will not be made available until the forthcoming release of 24
February. The qualitative information provided by the FSO states that net
exports provided the largest contribution to GDP growth during the fourth
quarter, although it failed to indicate whether this was more the result of
export strength or a setback to import momentum. Based on monthly customs trade
data, both exports and imports probably posted solid but unspectacular growth during
the final three months of 2010. A euro rebound in September/October will have
restrained export momentum to some extent. The purchasing managers' index (PMI)
sub-index for export orders picked up sharply once more during December
2010/January 2011, suggesting that exports will pick up anew in early 2011.
Import volumes are being lifted concurrently by the fact that Germany's
exporting firms also require many inputs from abroad, and by strengthening
consumer demand.
Domestic Demand Becoming Ever More Robust
Based on the initial indications provided with the
"flash" data, most domestic demand components are continuing to
contribute positively. This is no longer related to any subsidy effects or
one-off factors but rather reflects underlying improvement. The only exception
is investment in construction, which suffered from an early start to a cold and
snowy winter in November/December 2010. In addition, impulses from the
government's second fiscal stimulus package on infrastructure investment had
largely run their course by end-2010.
Although the increase in inflation in recent months has
rather had a restraining effect on private consumption, the continually
improving labour market situation is more than offsetting this in terms of
rising employment and strengthening wage growth. Since October 2010,
unemployment has been lower than it was at the peak of the previous economic
boom in late 2008. The FSO did not provide any particular indication about
government consumption in the fourth quarter, but it can be assumed that it
would have mentioned it if there had been a dampening effect from this
component.
Investment in equipment was apparently another major
contributor to the recovery in late 2010, extending the trend already observed
throughout the first three quarters of 2010. Credit conditions are now fairly
favourable, which partly owes to the dampening effect of the Eurozone debt
crisis on German interest-rate levels (low European Central Bank rates,
flight-to-quality flows). Capacity utilisation levels broadly reached long-term
averages in late 2010, suggesting that more potential for investment still lies
ahead. No explicit information was provided about the development of
inventories during the fourth quarter, thus we will have to wait until the
detailed data are released on 24 February to see if the moderate destocking
observed during the third quarter was unwound again. Data from the
manufacturing PMI have shown accelerating growth for the quantity of input
purchases, but with orders and production levels also picking up again the
actual stock of inventories may not have increased.
Overall, with the Ifo survey, a key leading indicator,
continuing to post new record highs for the post-reunification period (since
1991), domestic demand growth should pick up fresh momentum during the first
half of 2011.
Outlook and Implications
Germany's underlying economic growth momentum remains
robust. This can be seen from the broad-based nature of the recovery in the
three latest quarters and persistently high levels of leading indicators at the
data edge. Notwithstanding ongoing risks from global demand (notably the impact
of measures taken by China to prevent an overheating economy and thus inflation
problems) and potential further disruption related to Eurozone sovereign debt,
the German economy is in a good position to weather negative influences from
abroad. The most important supportive factors are healthy labour market
developments, still historically low interest rates, and a fairly competitive
euro.
IHS Global Insight's forthcoming February detailed
forecast predicts that calendar-adjusted GDP growth will slow only moderately
to 2.7% (2.6% unadjusted) in 2011 from 3.5% (3.6%) in 2010. Forecast risks are
currently balanced, with external developments having more potential to
surprise on the negative side and domestic developments on the positive side.
fecha |
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31/12/2010| |
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14/12/2010| |
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10/12/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
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31/10/2010| |
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17/09/2010| |
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10/09/2010| |
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10/07/2010| |
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08/04/2010| |
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18/03/2010| |
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31/12/2009| |
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30/12/2009| |
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24/12/2009| |
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11/12/2009| |
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11/12/2009| |
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10/12/2009| |
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10/12/2009| |
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08/12/2009| |
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27/11/2009| |
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31/10/2009| |
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30/09/2009| |
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30/09/2009| |
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21/09/2009| |
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19/09/2009| |
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17/09/2009| |
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15/09/2009| |
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14/09/2009| |
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12/09/2009| |
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10/09/2009| |
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01/09/2009| |
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31/08/2009| |
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29/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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26/08/2009| |
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24/08/2009| |
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21/08/2009| |
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20/08/2009| |
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19/08/2009| |
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18/08/2009| |
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17/08/2009| |
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14/08/2009| |
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14/08/2009| |
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14/08/2009| |
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14/08/2009| |
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12/08/2009| |
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12/08/2009| |
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11/08/2009| |
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11/08/2009| |
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10/08/2009| |
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10/08/2009| |
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07/08/2009| |
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07/08/2009| |
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06/08/2009| |
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06/08/2009| |
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05/08/2009| |
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05/08/2009| |
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04/08/2009| |
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04/08/2009| |
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03/08/2009| |
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03/08/2009| |
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01/08/2009| |
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01/08/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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29/07/2009| |
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27/07/2009| |
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27/07/2009| |
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25/07/2009| |
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25/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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21/07/2009| |
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21/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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17/07/2009| |
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17/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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15/07/2009| |
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15/07/2009| |
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15/07/2009| |
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28/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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15/03/2009| |
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18/01/2009| |
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10/01/2009| |
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06/01/2009| |
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05/01/2009| |
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02/01/2009| |
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24/12/2008| |
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24/12/2008| |
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24/12/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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27/11/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
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24/09/2008| |
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24/09/2008| |
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20/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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10/09/2008| |
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10/09/2008| |
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08/09/2008| |
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17/08/2008| |
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17/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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13/05/2008| |
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12/05/2008| |
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12/05/2008| |
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10/05/2008| |
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04/05/2008| |
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02/05/2008| |
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27/04/2008| |
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27/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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06/04/2008| |
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26/03/2008| |
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20/03/2008| |
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19/03/2008| |
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13/03/2008| |
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10/03/2008| |
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07/03/2008| |
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05/03/2008| |
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18/02/2008| |
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06/02/2008| |
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03/02/2008| |
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01/02/2008| |
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01/02/2008| |
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21/12/2007| |
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21/12/2007| |
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08/12/2007| |
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08/12/2007| |
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02/11/2007| |
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30/10/2007| |
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30/10/2007| |
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27/10/2007| |
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25/10/2007| |
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20/10/2007| |
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04/10/2007| |
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28/09/2007| |
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28/09/2007| |
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31/08/2007| |
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30/08/2007| |
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30/08/2007| |
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15/08/2007| |
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11/08/2007| |
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11/08/2007| |
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31/07/2007| |
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28/07/2007| |
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28/07/2007| |
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04/07/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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16/06/2007| |
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13/06/2007| |
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13/06/2007| |
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10/06/2007| |
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16/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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26/04/2007| |
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28/03/2007| |
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20/03/2007| |
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28/02/2007| |
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29/12/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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06/07/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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28/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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