The European Commission yesterday published its latest enlargement strategy which includes a voluminous yearly report on the progress made by aspiring member states in their bid for accession. The "Enlargements Strategy and Progress Reports 2009" was presented by European Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn. Overall, the report was the most positive and congratulatory for the Western Balkan nations, with the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) Macedonia receiving the highest praise for progress in building democratic stability. Nonetheless, other aspiring countries such as Turkey received little praise in the report, with relations between the bloc and Turkey remaining largely unchanged. The Enlargement Strategy has taken the view that bilateral disputes between member and applicant countries must not be allowed to derail membership aspirations. It also stated that visa liberalisation for all Western Balkan countries is a priority, provided that conditions established by the bloc for enhancing security are met.

Some Progress But Largely Maintaining the Status Quo

Although the report has taken a new approach this year, viewing each country on its individual merits, there are still some running themes including acknowledgement that the fight against corruption and organised crime remains one of the biggest challenges for Western Balkan nations and Turkey. The reports offer very different reading experiences depending on the countries concerned; most, however, have expressed satisfaction with the reports' verdict.

• Albania: The EC's assessment of Albanian progress is largely an exercise of the European Union (EU) hedging its bets. Albania applied for EU membership in April 2009, however the failure of the July general election to fully meet democratic standards has meant the EU has been reluctant to approve its application. Instead the report has stated that they will wait for the election procedure to be completed—it has been held up by continued allegations between the governing Democratic Party and the main opposition Socialist Party of election fraud. Although failing to provide a definitive answer to the membership application, the EC has called on Albania to make progress with its rule of law and fight against corruption as well as stating that the country needs to strengthen state institutions and enhance independence of the judiciary.

• Bosnia and Herzegovina: Rehn's report was rather damning of the lack of progress made by Bosnia-Herzegovina in key reforms—namely constitutional—as well as criticising the deterioration the country's domestic political climate. The report has warned Bosnia that without essential constitutional reforms as well as the closure of the Office of the High Representative (OHR), which has provided international supervision and peace agreement implementation since 1995, the EU will not consider a membership application.

• Croatia: Croatia's report has deemed it on the cusp of membership, using the phrase "nearing the final phase", although it did not provide a date for accession. The report does state that better access to documents needs to be provided by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), however not too much focus is put on this. The promising overall assessment was to be expected given the 10-month delay in accession talks due to a veto by EU member Slovenia. As a result, the EU is eager to sweeten the prospect of membership once again for Croatia following a tumultuous year in relations.

• FYR Macedonia: FYR Macedonia has widely been seen as the winner of the review process this year. The EC has recommended the opening of accession negotiations with the country, four years after it obtained candidate status. The country has engaged in a flurry of legislative activity in the three months to September in order to pass all the EU-mandated legislation to get a date for the start of accession talks in the report. The report did not set a date, instead leaving this decision for the European Council in mid-December. Rehn's report did however stress the need for FYR Macedonia to bring resolution to ongoing disputes with neighbours, most importantly the name dispute with Greece.

• Iceland: The EC report largely did not mention Iceland, except to say that it is a unique case since its laws are already largely harmonised with that of the EU since it is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen zone. It also indicates that membership is likely to be a closer reality for Iceland since it is already an established democracy.

• Kosovo: The bloc's relations with Kosovo are complicated by a number of factors including the lack of recognition of the new country from all 27 member states as well as the fact that the EU is intimately involved in the running of the country through its Rule of Law Mission (EULEX). As a result, the report has been much more limited in its assessment of Kosovo, simply condemning recent violent incidents against EULEX and outlining an extensive to-do list of improvement areas, including strengthening the rule of law, fighting corruption and organised crime, protection of the Serb minority, improving dialogue with local minorities and neighbour countries and expanding administrative capacity.

• Montenegro: The EC report does not spend much time discussing Montenegro except to say that the country needs to strengthen the rule of law and judicial reform as well as intensify its corruption battle while it waits for the EC to submit its opinion on its membership application, submitted in December 2008.

• Serbia: Serbia's government received praise for its "ambitious programme" to join the EU as well as the administration's commitment to making it a reality. Typically, Serbia is criticised for failing to extradite the two remaining ICTY indictees—Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic. Nonetheless, the report notes that co-operation levels with the ICTY have improved. As a result of this improved co-operation and commitment to EU membership, the Commission has called on EU members to unfreeze the Interim Trade Agreement with Serbia. Controversially, the report has also asked Serbia to take a more constructive attitude towards allowing Kosovo's participation in regional co-operation forums.

• Turkey: Rehn has once again reiterated past demands for Turkey to focus on delivering comprehensive and consistent political reforms. Areas singled out in need for significant improvement include freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedoms of religious, trade union rights, civilian oversight of the military and general equality. Rehn singled out the excessive fines imposed against the Dogan media group as an example of the government working to limit press freedom, and the reports also criticised Turkey's continued creation of obstacles to the Cypriot reunification effort, as well as its continued blockade of Greek Cypriot ships and planes from using its ports and airports. While issuing these rather damning criticisms of freedoms, Rehn also indicated that Turkey should be praised for seeing through the normalisation of relations with Armenia and the opening of the Kurdish question.

Outlook and Implications

There have been no big surprises from the EU's progress reports. As every year, there are winners and losers, with progress largely being uneven. The Commission is also attempting to balance its own internal policies and dialogues with the demands for enlargement issued by aspiring member states. Alongside the severe economic downturn experienced by the EU in the past twelve months, which has tainted the perception of some member states against allowing poorer European countries into the union, there is also the issue of the European Reform Treaty to consider. Despite the Irish barrier to ratification now being overcome with the October "yes" referendum, passage of the Treaty is still dependant on the Czech Republic's endorsement. The road ahead looks long and arduous for the aspiring member states with only Croatia and Iceland having the promise of membership in the near future. The inability of Albania to hold free and fair elections, as well as the complicated Bosnian state and Turkey's insistence on maintaining its own divergent stance on security issues, is challenging the EU in a variety of manners and fields. The EU must first deal with the challenge of adapting its institutionalised process to the realities of the latest aspiring members.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)