Death Toll Could Rise to Thousands

A massive earthquake, measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale, struck Haiti yesterday, leaving hundreds dead and possibly thousands, Reuters reports. The quake, whose epicentre was only 16 kilometres from Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince, caused severe infrastructural damage, reducing buildings to ruins and causing chaos across the city. Many are still trapped in the rubble and the number of victims is expected to climb as rescue operations continue today. The United Nations (UN) headquarters have been completely destroyed and the UN peacekeeping chief there, Alain Le Roy, said late last night that many of the UN personnel remain missing. Le Roy declared that "as we speak no one has been rescued", BBC reports. At this point there is no official estimate of the death toll caused by the earthquake, but it is estimated that the number of victims could climb into the thousands. What is becoming clear is that tens of thousands of people in Port-au-Prince, with a population of 1 million, have lost their homes.

Political Implications

Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, was thrown into political crisis in October last year when Prime Minister Michèle Pierre-Louis was ousted by the Senate on financial mismanagement charges. Pierre-Louis was removed after a year in office, as was her predecessor. She was appointed in 2008 at a time when Haiti was suffering under a wave of destructive hurricanes. Accustomed to natural disasters, the country has tried ever since to get back on its feet, but its development prospects have been crushed after yesterday’s quake. Still considered by many as a failed state with overall instability and insecurity, Haiti remains under the supervision of UN peacekeeping mission MINUSTAH. Now that the UN headquarters, responsible for holding the country together, are in ruins, many fear that looting and crime will skyrocket. Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive, sworn in in November to replace Pierre-Louis has made no official declarations yet. Questions concerning the coming legislative elections, scheduled for 28 February, have also been raised. With the country thrown into absolute chaos it is still unclear if the elections will go ahead, and if they do the political landscape is sure to change dramatically. Fanmi Lavalas, a populist leftist political party headed by former Haitian president Jean-Bertrand Aristide, had been excluded from the legislative polls, creating much controversy. Aristide, a former Catholic priest, was obliged to step down after a bloody army rebellion broke out in February 2004, when the United States and France pressured him to go into exile. The legislative election could thus provoke confrontation and violence if Fanmi Lavalas, with a strong support in Haiti's shantytowns, continues to be prevented from participating in the polls.

Alarm Spreads in the Caribbean

Haiti’s earthquake, the strongest to hit the country in 200 years, was also felt in neighbouring Cuba and the Dominican Republic. The two had initially feared an imminent tsunami after the quake, but the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) later ruled out this possibility. Nevertheless, the PTWC did say that Cuban and Dominican coasts might be affected by the seismic event, prompting evacuations in the Cuban city of Baracoa and in the Dominican Republic's capital, Santo Domingo. No major incidents have been reported in either country so far, but the underground system in Santo Domingo was shut as a preventive measure. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the United States would provide military and civilian disaster assistance, while U.S. President Barack Obama released a communiqué declaring that "we are closely monitoring the situation and we stand ready to assist the people of Haiti". So far the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has said that it will give US$200,000 in emergency aid. IDB president Luis Moreno made assurances that the funds will be used to distribute food, water, medicine, and temporary shelter for those affected by the quake, and promised further aid to help reconstruct the ruins.

Outlook and Implications

This latest natural disaster comes at a really bad time for Haiti as a country. Its fragile political system, already challenged by the upcoming legislative elections—expected to be highly controversial—will be sorely tested. MINUSTAH’s peacekeeping force will have to be strengthened, and much of Haiti’s future prospects will depend on how much international aid is poured in during the following weeks. Severe damage in infrastructure will have to be repaired, and this will take months, if not years, to achieve. In the meantime, the chaos is unlikely to diminish and an increase in violence and crime is highly probable. In light of this, IHS Global Insight has downgraded its Operational Risk Rating for Haiti from 4.25 to 4.50, and will continue to monitor developments closely.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)