After 23 years of iron-fist rule, Tunisia's former president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country on 14 January, leaving Tunisia to grapple with a dangerous power vacuum.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: Tunisia's president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali
has effectively been ousted after a month of intense protests. His departure
has left Tunisia in the hands of an interim government that is struggling to
impose order amid continued chaos.
Implications: Tunisia's political future remains unclear.
Interim Prime Minister Mohammed Gannouchi is set to present a new unity
government, but it is unclear how far this can satisfy Tunisia's enraged
population.
Outlook: In the immediate term stability will suffer
dramatically. The so-called "Jasmine Revolution" may have ousted the
president, but it has not rid the country's institutions of decades of
single-party rule, deeply penetrated corruption and undemocratic institutions.
Risk Ratings
IHS Global Insight is downgrading Tunisia's Political,
Security, Operational and Economic Risk Ratings to reflect the dramatic events
over the past several days and the considerable level of uncertainty that lies
ahead. The Political Risk Rating has been downgraded from 2.25 to 3.25, the Security
Risk Rating from 2.25 to 3.0, the Operational Risk Rating from 2.25 to 3.0, and
the Economic Risk Rating from 2.25 to 3.0.
A Leader Falls
On Friday (14 January) Tunisia's former president Zine
al-Abidine Ben Ali imposed a state of emergency and handed over interim
presidential powers to his prime minister, Mohammed Ghannouchi. The government
had attempted to quell several weeks of unrest through a combination of
brutality and attempted co-optation. However, Ben Ali's promises of new jobs,
fresh investments and even a pledge to step down from the presidency in 2014
failed to satisfy protesters' demands. As the unrest continued, the overall
demand was for the president to step down. Shortly after a state of emergency
was declared, reliable reports emerged that Ben Ali had in fact fled the
country with members of his family, ending 23 years of unchallenged
presidential rule. Later Saudi Arabia confirmed that it had received the former
president.
On Saturday (15 January) the interim presidential post
was handed over to parliamentary speaker Fouad Mebazaa as per Tunisia's
constitution. Ghannouchi remains in place as prime minister and has been
charged with forming a new "unity" government that is expected to be
announced imminently. Little reliable information has emerged regarding the
future government. Opposition figures speaking to the international press have
made contradictory claims, some saying that parties close to the former
government would be excluded, while others claimed that the government will include
previous cabinet members. The exact way forward is unclear, but Tunisia's
constitution stipulates that fresh elections must be held within 60 days.
Ben Ali's ousting represents a monumental break with
Tunisia's history and has left the country's immediate future in great
uncertainty. The "Jasmine Revolution"—as the revolt has been dubbed
at home—was successful in removing Ben Ali, but it has not put forward an
alternative government. Leaderless and spontaneous, the historic uprising risks
leaving an empowered population with crushed expectations.
Fights for Power
There are no obvious populist candidates to take over the
political leadership. As a result a fierce political battle can be expected
amongst the upper echelons of the existing political and military leadership.
Hopes and demands for a more representative, open and democratic system have
been expressed, but the fact remains that Tunisia's opposition parties have for
decades been extremely weak and focused largely on self-perpetuation. Their
agendas have not successfully resonated with Tunisians amid the ruling
Constitutional Democratic Rally's (Rassemblement Constitutionnel Démocratique,
RCD) dominance of the country's institutions. Furthermore, most legal
opposition parties have for decades cooperated with the RCD to differing
levels, as their survival has depended on the ruling party. This may weaken
their appeal further. Meanwhile, banned leftist and Islamist opposition groups
will remain outside the new government, although several exiled opposition
leaders—including Islamist Hizb al-Nahda leader Rachid al-Ghannouchi—have said
they will return home to revive their movements.
On the streets of the capital, Tunis, signs of emerging
political battles are painfully evident as the police and security forces are
struggling to control a chaotic situation. Looting and rioting remain pervasive
amid a more serious battle between members of the presidential security forces
loyal to Ben Ali, and the army. The presidential guards have been accused of seeking
to foment maximum unrest and chaos in Ben Ali's absence. According to media
reports, fighting appears to be taking place across the capital. Residents have
been ordered not to leave their homes, but locals were in many areas said to
have formed their own defence against looters, some cited in foreign media as
saying that they do not trust the police to provide reliable and indiscriminate
protection.
Some of the most violent fighting has taken place at the
Presidential Palace in Carthage, where presidential guards have been seeking
refuge from the army, which appears bent on arresting members of the
several-thousand-strong guards. Over the weekend, the former head of the force,
Ali Seriati, was detained amid rumours of an attempted coup. Former interior
minister Rafik Belhaj Kacem who was dismissed on 12 January, was also
reportedly arrested. The charges against the two men were unclear, but probably
related to the severe use of force by the police and security forces against
protesters. These arrests could mark the beginning of a political purge in the
aftermath of the government's collapse. Meanwhile, as the army attempts to
restore order, General Rachid Ammar, Chief of Staff of the army, has emerged as
a possible contender for a political post. Ammar's refusal to obey government
orders last week to fire on protesters may have been one of the reasons why Ben
Ali's position eventually became untenable.
Regional Ramifications
As events continue to unfold at rapid speed, regional
government officials are nervously holding their breaths. Whether successful in
instituting an entirely new political system or not, the Tunisian uprising is
nevertheless the only successful popular ousting of an Arab leader in recent
history. All the countries in the Arab Middle East—with the possible exception
of Iraq—share many defining characteristics with the political system in
Tunisia. The fatal concoction in Tunisia was one of socio-economic and
political grievances. On the socio-economic front, high unemployment rates were
mixed with rapid population growth and large-scale entry of university
graduates onto the labour force. Despite relatively high standards of living
and stable economic growth, growth was not perceived as having trickled down
sufficiently to the population. A highly educated but disgruntled middle-class
population eventually had enough. However, this cannot adequately be described
as a bread-and-butter revolution. Ben Ali's rule fell not on high unemployment
levels, but on perceptions of extreme levels of corruption, anger over the
growing arrogance and dominance of the president and his extended family, as
well as on lack of freedoms and decades of political repression. These are all
elements shared by many regional states. Already, opposition groups in the
region are making references to Tunisia as the example to follow. In Jordan,
Sheikh Hammam Said, head of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood, hailed the Tunisians
"who stood as one to bring down tyranny and injustice" as "an
example for all Arab peoples," at a political rally yesterday. Elsewhere,
on social media websites, support for Tunisia has poured in from people in the
region.
In particular, Tunisia's North African neighbours can be
expected to be fearful, not least because their political systems have experienced
considerably greater turbulence in the past and have been inherently less
stable than Tunisia. However, for that reason also, they are likely to be
better prepared to withstand domestic turbulence of the nature seen in Tunisia.
For one, all the North African countries have considerably stronger and more
able armies, which in some cases have greater loyalty to the political
leadership. In Tunisia the army has not yet attempted a coup, despite some such
predictions by some reporters after the government's fall. This is largely
because the army probably is not strong enough to hold down the security and
political institutions singlehandedly, and because the political-military
relationship there differs somewhat from the Algerian, Egyptian and Libyan cases.
In these countries, serious political upheaval would be most likely to see the
army step in with considerable force to secure the political situation, or
potentially take it over completely. Furthermore, some political commentators
have suggested that the reason why Tunisia "fell" at all was because
of the purely secular nature of the uprising. This certainly would have
affected the reaction of Ben Ali's Western former backers, including European
Union (EU) states and the United States, which have hailed the Tunisian
people's bid to instate a more accountable government. The fact is, in most
regional states the strongest opposition forces are also Islamist, making their
potential ousting of a government a far riskier prospect, and far less likely
to incur the support of the Western world.
Regional governments will therefore keep an eye on
Tunisia and an even closer eye on developments at home. Food price and housing
unrest in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, and Jordan in recent days and weeks have
stirred further concern. In Syria and Jordan the governments have announced
that they will begin to reverse subsidies cuts programmes, no doubt in an
effort to prevent price hikes to stir unrest. In Libya and Algeria such moves
have already been taken.
Raised Risks
In light of the turbulent events of the past several
weeks, and more acutely Ben Ali's ousting and the country's uncertain future,
IHS Global Insight has downgraded the country's Political, Security,
Operational and Economic Risk Ratings. These sharp spikes reflect the current
situation in the country, as well as the uncertain near-term outlook,
particularly if an interim political situation fails to settle immediate
grievances. In the medium term the upheaval is likely to make the political
system less predictable and more prone to disruption. Security in many areas
continues to be precarious. In the longer term the political vacuum could
invite groups such as al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) to attempt to
enter the Tunisian scene more forcefully. Tunisia's fervently secular society
and political system has effectively excluded moderate and extremist Islamist
alike. Militant groups are likely to find little resonance for their agendas;
however, the struggling insurgent group could seek to capitalise on the
political turmoil to establish itself there and begin hunting for potential
supporters. AQIM's leader Abdelmalek Droukdel was quick to issue a statement of
support for Tunisia on 9 January, a possible sign of the movement's hopes for
future involvement.
Risk Category | Previous Risk | New Risk |
Political | 2.25 | 3.25 |
Security | 2.25 | 3.00 |
Operational | 2.25 | 3.00 |
Economic | 2.25 | 3.00 |
On the economic front, Tunisia's tourism industry has
been disrupted, with major cancellations from European travellers in light of
the ongoing political unrest and precarious security. The changing political
environment has brought uncertainty to the economic outlook, which has
contributed to the risk downgrade as well. Furthermore, days of general strikes
and the precarious security situation have made the availability of food
scarce. General strikes may be used more forcefully as a political tool to pressure
the government in the future. As a result of this and the general unrest, the
operational environment has also taken a turn. On the energy front, little
actual disruption has so far been reported from the Tunisian upstream sector.
Most of Tunisia's oil and gas production is located in the more remote southern
and south-western desert areas, as well as offshore, mainly in the Gulf of
Ghabes; hence it is relatively out of reach for mobs and protestors, as well as
for any eventual political militia forming over the coming days. With Tunisia's
military still seeming rather held together, threats to the strategic oil and
gas assets are not seen as escalating particularly high. Prolonged unrest will,
however, start to damage operations relatively soon as the smaller scale of
Tunisia's oil and gas industry. IHS Global Insight will be monitoring the
developments in Tunisia closely, assessing the impact of any new government on
the country's risk profile.
Outlook
and Implications
Awaiting the announcement of the new national unity
government, Tunisia remains in limbo, having shocked and stunned the observing
world. The RCD has effectively dominated Tunisia in one shape or form since the
country's independence in 1956; Ben Ali was only the country's second president.
It is difficult to overstate the importance of the events of the past several
weeks. The country's institutions will benefit from decades of maturity and
stability. However, they will suffer from the dominance of entrenched
interests, making real change a highly challenging prospect. Meanwhile,
Tunisia's image as one of the most reliable bulwarks of stability has been
determinedly crushed, and the road ahead remains uncertain. Even if a semblance
of stability is restored in the near term, the country will be grappling with
big questions for some time to come.
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