The UN Security Council is widely expected to impose sanctions against the Eritrean regime for its alleged backing of anti-government forces in Somalia and its alleged infringement of sovereign territory belonging to neighbouring Djibouti when it meets later today. The 15-member body has for the past several months been discussing a Ugandan-drafted proposal that seeks to impose of punitive measures against Eritrea, including a ban on weapons sales as well as freezing the funds of the "Eritrean political and military leadership" and restricting its foreign travel. The proposal also includes a ban on providing Eritrea with "technical assistance, training, financial and other assistance, related to the military activities". The draft resolution also called on Eritrea to withdraw its troops from the disputed territories along its border with Djibouti, in compliance with an existing council resolution.

Somali Interference

The main issue that drew the ire of the international community is the government's alleged backing of anti-government insurgent groups, such as the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Shabaab in Somalia. Al-Shabaab and another Eritrean-backed group, Hizbul Islam, are currently waging a devastating insurgency war against Somalia's Western-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) led by Islamic scholar Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, with the view of replacing it with a regime that will govern the country under an extremist brand of Islamic (sharia) rule. The Eritrean government is doing this as part of its own proxy battle with its larger and more powerful neighbour Ethiopia, with which it is embroiled in a long-running border dispute. Ethiopia, which helped the TFG into power at the end of 2006, is seen as its main backer, deploying thousands of troops in the neighbouring country to ensure its continued stay in power. Although Ethiopia ended its direct military involvement in Somalia earlier in 2009 after a chastening experience there, Eritrea seems hell-bent on bringing down the TFG, hoping to destabilise Ethiopia, which shares a long and disputed border with Somalia, which has a long-standing claim on Ethiopia's Ogaden region, inhabited by ethnic Somalis.

The international community, led by the United States and the regional African Union (AU), has repeatedly warned the Eritrean government to end its negative role in keeping Somalia embroiled in a devastating war, but to no avail.

Border Infringement

The second issue that has brought Eritrea closer to facing sanctions is its alleged occupation of sovereign Djiboutian land. The two Horn of Africa neighbours have been at odds with each other since Djibouti accused Eritrea of violating its territory by sending troops into the remote Ras Doumeira region in early 2008, a claim vehemently denied by Eritrea . The alleged incursion and subsequent military build-up eventually led to brief clashes between the two armies in June 2008. After the Eritrean government ignored all attempts by a UN fact-finding team to establish Eritrea's alleged infringement, the Security Council ordered Eritrea to withdraw its forces from the disputed Ras Doumeira and Doumeira Island region within five weeks back in January 2009, after finding it the aggressor in the low-level conflict. Despite the ultimatum, Eritrean troops continue to remain in the disputed region, much to Djibouti's growing anger.

Outlook and Implications

Eritrea has been the subject of growing calls for sanctions in recent months for its alleged backing of anti-government insurgents in Somalia. Those calling for action include the Somali, U.S., and U.K. governments as well as the six-nation east African regional body—the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development, of which Uganda is a member. The AU broke with convention and called for sanctions against the Eritrean government back in May; it is the first time that the pan-African organisation has called for sanctions against one of its member states.

Eritrea has continued to deny accusations that it backs the anti-government insurgents in Somalia, while maintaining that it has not infringed Djibouti's territory despite evidence to the contrary on both counts. The Eritrean government also insists that the imposition of sanctions will be counter-productive as it will only help boost Ethiopia's current status as regional power.

But the growing international consensus identifying the country as the main spoiler in the effort to bring peace to Somalia is now certain to see it facing international sanctions heading into 2010. China and Russia, two permanent Security Council members that are disposed to be more sympathetic towards Eritrea and may otherwise have blocked the sanctions proposal, are both believed to have given their blessing because of the AU's unusually tough stance, meaning that today's vote appears to be a formality.

Although the punitive measures being considered by the UN will mainly hit Eritrea's political leaders as well as the country's huge armed forces, it will increase the young country's international isolation and push it further into the ranks of the world's rogue states.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)