Argentina’s vice president-elect is a hoodie-wearing, Harley-riding rock ‘n roll guitarist who plays up the pace of the country’s prosperity in every financial summit he attends as economy minister.
President Cristina Fernandez chose Amado Boudou as her running mate not just
because of his youthful appeal, a key factor now that she’s a 58-year-old widow
limited to a second term in office. Boudou also was a key player in several
unorthodox decisions, such as nationalizing the pensions and using foreign
reserves to pay down debt, that enabled her to spread the country’s wealth among
the poor and working classes.
And this, in turn, helps explain how Fernandez came to be re-elected Sunday
with perhaps the widest victory margin in Argentine history, and 54 percent of
the vote.
How did she and Boudou do this, in a world where leading economies are
slowing and smaller countries are swallowing unpopular austerity measures in
exchange for financial lifelines?
Since Fernandez and her late husband and predecessor Nestor Kirchner moved
into the presidential palace in 2003, they presided over one of the longest
periods of economic growth in the country’s history — growing twice as fast in
real terms as the economic powerhouse of Brazil, and faster than any other
nation in the world save China and India, according to the Washington-based
Center for Economic and Policy Research.
The Kirchners also cut the wealth gap — the difference in income between the
95th and 5th percentile — nearly in half by nearly tripling social spending in
real terms, economist Mark Weisbrot said.
They rebuilt Argentina’s industrial capacity after the 2001 economic
collapse, creating jobs, lowering poverty and putting disposable income into
many more pockets. They did it by either trying to mask or ignore the high
inflation their spending encouraged, preferring to keep the economy moving. As a
result, shops are open, business is thriving, and people are buying new cars and
televisions like never before.
How long this kind of spending can be sustained is an open question. La
Nacion, Argentina’s leading newspaper, warned in a front-page opinion column
Monday that the nation’s economic engines are running dry. Socialist Hermes
Binner, the second-place finisher, said it’s not clear whether Argentina can
withstand a coming global crisis.
On the other hand, Argentina still has near-record foreign reserves of more
than $48 billion, thanks in large part to risky moves by Fernandez and her
long-haired, 47-year-old economy minister, a confirmed bachelor with two
motorcycles, a growing collection of electric guitars and a live-in TV
journalist girlfriend who is almost half his age.
While Boudou pursued the youth vote, the government was able to use funds
generated by his decisions for “social inclusion,” increasing pensions, child
welfare and the minimum wage by about 25 percent last month to keep up with
price increases. Fernandez even expanded the $3 billion family support program
she created by presidential decree so that poor mothers get cash starting early
in their pregnancies.
All this has had a huge social impact: Among other things, public school
classrooms are packed with children who would otherwise be working or on the
streets.
They were able to do this, fundamentally, by rejecting the kind of orthodox
economic advice that has made the “Occupy” marchers so indignant worldwide.
Boudou has insisted to the Club of Paris, a group of lender nations including
the U.S. to whom Argentina still owes more than $6.5 billion, that the
government would accept no conditions in exchange for a new payment plan, even
as the same lenders force austerity measures on Greece and other suffering
economies.
“When a society expresses itself and decides in free and democratic elections
to adopt a decision, this decision must be respected,” Fernandez warned in her
victory speech Sunday night, referring to those who would return Argentina to
its 1990s model of neoliberal conservatism.
It was Boudou who suggested to the Kirchners before becoming economy minister
that they should renationalize the pension funds that had been privatized in the
1990s, a decade when the World Bank and International Monetary Fund had
encouraged Argentina to take on impossible debts, leading to its world-record
2001 default. The private funds were forcing Argentine taxpayers to foot 60
percent of miserly minimal pensions, even as the funds took profits out of the
country.
Fernandez took Boudou’s advice and in 2008, signed a law seizing $23 billion
in private pension funds. This infuriated some investors, invited no end of
attacks by the news media and made her even more of a pariah among financial
analysts. But it also created a vast credit pool from which to invest in
projects “made in Argentina,” and provided an alternative to foreign debt, which
they couldn’t assume without conceding to an independent examination of
Argentina’s official inflation numbers. That, in turn, would have surely
increased pressure for budget cuts, leading to a voter backlash.
“This is why I value Amado Boudou so much,” Fernandez explained in her
authorized biography, published in August. “In two years, we’ve duplicated the
funds that they built up in 12. It was an impressive business deal. Many of the
things we’ve done were already thought of by others, but they didn’t have the
guts to act.”
Boudou also was the point man for Fernandez’s ouster of the Central Bank
president, which enabled the government to use its reserves to pay off foreign
debts. Opponents predicted it would weaken Argentina’s ability to support its
currency. But reducing the debt load freed up money for more productive uses, in
turn building reserves. Argentina now has accumulated much more than it had to
cushion against previous global turbulence.
When the new Congress is sworn in on Dec. 10, Fernandez, Boudou and his
yet-to-be-named replacement as economy minister will benefit from narrow
majorities in both houses for the first time since 2009’s midterm elections. The
president will be able to get laws passed, rather than having to invoke her
emergency decree power to get things done.
This is one advantage Fernandez has over President Barack Obama: Nearly her
entire congressional opposition adheres to centrist or leftist parties. The only
political bloc promoting ideas remotely similar to U.S. conservatives is the Pro
party, led by Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, but it has just 11 seats in the
lower house and none in the Senate.
It remains to be seen if Macri can now rally what’s left of a divided
opposition.
“Clearly the fragmentation has been an enormous error: Half or more of the
Argentines were open to hearing a proposal for change, but it had to be
articulated,” Macri said Monday.
Fernandez’s agenda may include changes in banking regulations to more tightly
control currency flows, and a union-backed proposal to require corporations to
share 10 percent of their profits with their employees, which if passed could
force businesses to open their books in a country where tax evasion still runs
rampant.
Such moves would surely raise new complaints that Fernandez is failing to
ensure stability for investors.
Her likely response: Argentina is open for any investor willing to meet her
government’s terms.
“I’m not a genius or a fool,” Fernandez said Sunday night, speaking of those
opposed to her populist approach. “But I know that these people are the minority
— powerful, but a minority. It depends, therefore, on the great majorities,
comprising our workers and our middle classes, to not be knocked off track as
has happened to us so many times in our history, ruining projects that served
the nation. They are still out there, those who knocked us down, many times
directed from abroad.”
**Michael Warren can be reached at www.twitter.com/mwarrenap
fecha |
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