Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The president's decision to declare a state of emergency reflects the seriousness of the potential threat to the administration from within the armed forces, amid growing unrest over allegations of government corruption. 

Implications

President Arroyo has taken the step to boost security following the foiling of a new military coup plot against the government. The significance of the latest plot is that it is believed to involve senior commanders, whereas previous attempted revolts against the president have been confined to the lower ranks of the armed forces. 

Outlook

The involvement of senior commanders in a military plot against the president clearly reflects a growing threat to the government, but the likelihood of a full-scale revolt against Arroyo remains remote, as the vast majority of the senior command of the armed forces remains behind the president, and there is little popular appetite to overthrow the government. 

Risk Ratings

Nonetheless, the latest developments will foster an environment of increasing political uncertainty, which is reflected in the downgrading of our Political Risk Rating, from 2.50 to 2.75. 

President Declares State of Emergency, amid New Coup Threat

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo declared a state of emergency in the Philippines this morning, following the discovery of a new military plot against her government. The state of emergency enables the government to detain suspected plotters without arrest warrants. In a television address, Arroyo said that the government had uncovered plans by military officers and their civilian supporters to overthrow her government. Brigadier-General Danilo Lim, the commander of the elite Scout Rangers regiment, has been held for planning to join anti-government protests today with a number of soldiers, along with marine brigade commander Colonel Ariel Quevdo and Narzalino Franco, the head of the national police Special Action Force. Arroyo has ordered the further arrest of 10 other people, including soldiers, civilians and the financiers of the plot, according to news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP). Lim had previously led a military coup attempt against the administration of Corazon Aquino in 1989. Chief-of-staff General Generoso Senga revealed that Lim had contacted him yesterday and asked him to withdraw his support for the government. The general added that he had spoken with his fellow commanders, and that they had assured him that they remained behind the Arroyo government.

Police have said that they will disperse anti-government protestors today in the capital Manila, but former president Corazaon Aquino has said that she will defy the ban by leading a march to call for the resignation of Arroyo. Aquino has led such calls since allegations of vote-rigging by the president surfaced last year. Hundreds of supporters of former president Joseph Estrada have also rallied at a hospital where he is being detained.

Outlook and Implications

The Philippines has a long history of military coup attempts, dating back to the Aquino and Marcos administrations in the 1980s. Arroyo's government has faced persistent threats of a possible military coup, and survived an uprising by 200 junior officers in July 2003, over alleged government corruption. Discontent within junior military ranks has been fanned by last year's allegations that Arroyo rigged the May 2004 general election, although the military stood by the president at the height of the crisis. However, she has struggled to shrug off the allegations, and rumours of coup plots have resurfaced in recent weeks. Tension mounted further this week with the staging of anti-government protests, coinciding with the twentieth anniversary of the removal from power of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos. Lieutenant-General Hermogenes Espero announced earlier this week that 14 junior officers had been arrested for plotting to overthrow the president, in alliance with members of the Communist New People's Army (NPA); some of the junior officers had previously been involved in the July 2003 plot. However, the difference in the latest coup plot, which has led to the state of emergency, is that it is believed to involve senior commanders, marking an escalation in the potential threat to the administration. The troops involved in the latest plot were allegedly planning to join anti-government protestors, in the hope of triggering a widespread uprising against the president.

The government's declaration of a state of emergency reflects the seriousness of the latest plot against the president, and the potential for further similar plots in the current climate of increasing tension. While previous military conspiracies against the president have been shrugged off, the latest plot was clearly more significant, being the first to involve senior officers. The attempted revolt will prompt government fears of growing discontent within the senior command, which could lead to further coup attempts. However, the vast majority of senior generals remain behind the Arroyo government, and there is little appetite among the general public for a mass uprising, despite the president's low approval rating over the election-fixing allegations. Nonetheless, the state of emergency reflects the growing threat to the administration from unrest among the military and opposition supporters. The current climate of greater political uncertainty is reflected in our downgrading of the country's Political Risk Rating from 2.5 to 2.75. 

Contact: Raul Dary

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raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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