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16/12/2006 | A Saudi Power Struggle?

Stratfor Staff

The sands are shifting in the Saudi kingdom, but the direction is still unclear.

The questions began with the out-of-the-blue resignation of Saudi Ambassador to the United States Turki al-Faisal on Monday. Prince Turki said he resigned to spend more time with his family -- the usual excuse given for abrupt diplomatic departures -- but his absence has raised questions in Washington regarding the stability of the Saudi royal family.

There is no question that Prince Turki's brother, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, is ailing, and that Prince Turki would want to ensure the al-Faisal faction stays intact by assuming his position should Saud end up dying or become incapacitated. But sources in the Saudi Embassy and personal friends of Prince Turki have recently indicated that he is not held in high regard by Saudi King Abdullah and could not be getting a promotion after all.

Prince Turki assumed his ambassadorship in Washington after Prince Bandar bin Sultan left the position in June 2005 (also citing personal reasons). Soon after Sultan returned to Riyadh, he assumed an elite position as the secretary-general of Saudi Arabia's National Security Council (NSC) -- a recent creation by King Abdullah that was designed to formalize the decision-making process in the Saudi political system and consolidate power for the Sudeiri clan. Prince Turki, meanwhile, was expected to put a fresh face on Saudi Arabia's diplomatic offices in Washington, but apparently did not see eye-to-eye with King Abdullah on a number of issues.

Tensions between Prince Turki and King Abdullah escalated in the wake of the summer war in Lebanon, when the prince furiously objected to private meetings between Prince Bandar and the Israelis. These were primarily consultations on how to put a lid on Iranian aggressions in the region, and had the approval of King Abdullah.

There were also deep divisions between Prince Turki and King Abdullah over how to safeguard Saudi interests in light of the deteriorating U.S. position in Iraq. Saudi Arabia's senior strategic adviser, Nawaf Obeid, released a controversial report for The Washington Post on Nov. 29 that says Saudi Arabia would have no choice but to support a proxy war in Iraq by propping up Sunni militants if the United States were to pull its forces out of Iraq. Prince Turki subsequently fired Obeid from his position as managing director of the Saudi National Security Assessment Project, a Riyadh-based government consultancy.

The idea of Saudi Arabia supporting the Sunni insurgency in Iraq makes a good deal of sense from the Saudi point of view: The Saudis are wholly dependent on the United States for their national security and rely on U.S. troops to block Iran from advancing beyond Iraq and into the oil-rich Saudi deserts. Without a Sunni buffer zone in Iraq, Riyadh's need for U.S. troops to remain in Iraq soars. Now with pressure on the United States to drawdown its forces, the Saudis are speaking up to make it clear that the consequences of leaving will be far greater for the United States than toughing it out in Iraq and keeping the Iranians at bay. These sentiments were also echoed during King Abdullah's visit with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney in November -- a meeting at which Prince Turki was notably absent.

The fact that the prince might not get the Foreign Ministry position after all suggests serious implications for the stability of the Saudi regime. Power in the Saudi political structure is shared by the key clans:

1. The Sudeiris, which include Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense and Aviation Crown Prince Sultan, as well as his sons Bandar, the secretary-general of the NSC, and Prince Khalid, the deputy defense minister; Minister of Interior Prince Nayef and his son Prince Ahmed, the deputy interior minister; and Prince Salman, the governor of Riyadh.

2. The al-Faisals, which include Turki, who formerly served as the country's intelligence chief and ambassador to the United Kingdom, and his brother Saud, the ailing foreign minister.

3. The Abdullah Faction, which includes King Abdullah and his son Prince Mutaib who is deputy commander in the Saudi National Guard.

Prince Bandar is reportedly angling for the foreign minister position once Saud is out of the picture. Should King Abdullah choose Bandar over Turki, the al-Faisal clan will be squeezed out of the royal hierarchy, paving the way for the Sudeiris to consolidate their control over the al-Saud regime. A disproportionate amount of power allocated to the Sudeiri clan spells trouble for the stability of the Saudi government as competition will intensify among these key rival factions. The outcome of Prince Turki's replacement is still murky, but we will be watching the House of Saud closely for growing signs of a power struggle.

Stratfor (Estados Unidos)

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30/12/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/12/2006\|	Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
30/12/2006\|	Serving Up Dolly: Implications of an FDA Ruling
30/12/2006\|	Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
30/12/2006\|	Germany's EU Presidential Ambitions
23/12/2006\|	Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
23/12/2006\|	Turkmenistan: The Battle to Follow Turkmenbashi's Death
23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Iran's Sudden Opportunity in Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: Moving in on Turkmenistan
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Russia: The Fallout from a Cash Deal on Sakhalin-2
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
23/12/2006\|	Mexico: The Vital Role of 'Gatekeepers' in the Smuggling Business
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Nigeria: Using Bombs to Keep the Pressure On
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
20/12/2006\|	Russia: An Energy Cutoff for Belarus, But Not for Europe
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	Belarus: Can Foreign Investment Pay the Gas Bill?
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
16/12/2006\|	A SAFE Approach to the Energy Debate
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Venezuela: Documenting the Threat
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Russia's Plans for Iran
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
15/12/2006\|	Mexico's Anti-Cartel Operation: A Small Stone in a Big River
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	U.S.: The Army's Stunted Transformation
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	India's Nuclear Negotiations Enter a New Phase
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
12/12/2006\|	Calderon's Presidential Challenges
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	Iraq's Evolving Relationship with Iran
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	The Venezuelan Vote
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
05/12/2006\|	EU, Kazakhstan: The Geopolitics of Energy Cooperation
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
02/12/2006\|	India Records Torrid Growth in Q2
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Another Aspect to the Military Race
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
29/11/2006\|	Somalia: The Deyr Delays an Imminent Clash
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia, the West and the Espionage Game
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
22/11/2006\|	Russia: LUKoil's Bold Expansion Plan
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
18/11/2006\|	Linking Russia's WTO Bid to Iran
17/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief- What the Gazprom - ENI Deal Does -- and Does Not -- Mean
16/11/2006\|	Industry's New Stake in Kyoto
14/11/2006\|	India, Pakistan: Al Qaeda and the Airport Threat
13/11/2006\|	INDIA - The Abduction of a High-Tech Executive's Son
11/11/2006\|	Colombia's Multifaceted Security Problem
11/11/2006\|	U.S., Russia: The Politics Behind the WTO Talks
11/11/2006\|	CHINA - Blocking Investment to Promote Stability
08/11/2006\|	MEXICO - Jumping on the Oaxaca Bandwagon
07/11/2006\|	Global Market Brief
07/11/2006\|	Mexico City Bombings: An Escalation in Tensions
04/11/2006\|	Iraq Without Bechtel
04/11/2006\|	AUSTRIA - The Kidnapping Plot Against a Crystal Heiress
01/11/2006\|	Europe: The Taliban's Broadening Scope
31/10/2006\|	BOLIVIA - BRAZIL: La Paz's Natural Gas Dilemma
31/10/2006\|	MEXICO - A Mexican Standoff Worsens
31/10/2006\|	HONDURAS-Honduras' Operation Thunder: The Effort to Stem Rising Crime
28/10/2006\|	BANGLADESH - Conditions Conducive to a Coup?
28/10/2006\|	BRAZIL-Strength in Victory, Weakness in Office
24/10/2006\|	SUDAN-Khartoum Moves Against Foreign Intervention in Darfur
24/10/2006\|	Somalia's Islamists Court Mainstream Muslims
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ- Big Plans, Major Obstacles, for the Oil Sector
24/10/2006\|	IRAQ - The Coming Change in U.S. Strategy
21/10/2006\|	U.S.: Al Qaeda and the U.S. Midterm Elections
21/10/2006\|	Japan's Nuclear Message for China
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 1
18/10/2006\|	Time for Iran's Close-Up - Part 2 - South Asia: Still Feeling the 'Washington Effect'
18/10/2006\|	The EU Scrambles for a Russia Policy
18/10/2006\|	Chemical Risk: Mass Storage and Transport as Weapons, Not Targets
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Sunset for Shtokman?
18/10/2006\|	RUSSIA, BULGARIA, GREECE- The Pipe Dream Pipeline
14/10/2006\|	IRELAND -The Latest 'Tiger Kidnapping' Trend
14/10/2006\|	CHINA - Using Unions To Access Company Records
14/10/2006\|	PAKISTAN - Rockets, Coup Rumors and Musharraf
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA - Americans as Targets of Ultranationalist Street Gangs
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin's Hands-On Energy Policy
14/10/2006\|	RUSSIA -The Kremlin Puts LUKoil Under Pressure
07/10/2006\|	North Korea: Beijing's Diminishing Power of Persuasion
05/10/2006\|	Nigeria: The Threat Against Bonny Island
05/10/2006\|	Kuwait: Moving to Become an Oil Market-Mover?
05/10/2006\|	Dirty Bombs: Weapons of Mass Disruption
29/09/2006\|	SOMALIA - Ethiopia's Islamist Fears
28/09/2006\|	IRAN, RUSIA - A Nuclear Marriage of Convenience
27/09/2006\|	SOUTH KOREA - Rethinking its Military Future
27/09/2006\|	Hezbollah's Iranian Connection
27/09/2006\|	MEXICO - Passing the Oaxacan Buck
24/09/2006\|	THAILAND - A Possible Respite in Southern Violence
23/09/2006\|	BOLIVIA - Military Bases in the Lowlands
23/09/2006\|	KENYA - Corruption as Catalyst for Crime
23/09/2006\|	The World Bank at a Crossroads
30/08/2006\|	SRI LANKA- Strategic Potential on Hold
30/08/2006\|	A Polite Meeting About Missiles
27/08/2006\|	EU: Energy Security and the Nuclear Genie
02/08/2006\|	CUBA - A New Castro Assumes the Old Power
02/08/2006\|	SOMALIA - Islamists and Clan Politics
30/07/2006\|	AFRICA - Toward a Three-Way Conflict in the Horn of Africa
30/07/2006\|	U.S., India: Hammering Out a Nuclear Deal
28/07/2006\|	Perception and Reality in the Oil Market
28/07/2006\|	Chavez's World Tour
23/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Acapulco as a Main Front in the Drug Wars
19/07/2006\|	IRAN - Using the Israeli-Hezbollah Conflict Advantageously
15/07/2006\|	The Economic Impact of an Israeli-Lebanese War
14/07/2006\|	Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder
06/07/2006\|	MEXICO - Facing Its Greatest Democratic Test
06/07/2006\|	BOLIVIA - A Highland Constitution and Lowland Discontent
06/07/2006\|	USA-The GOP Challenge: Retaining Religious Voters
06/07/2006\|	SLOVAKIA - An Unlikely Coalition
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Global Market Brief
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Mexico's Economic Choices in the Upcoming Election
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
30/06/2006\|	Sri Lanka, India: The Tigers Try to Charm New Delhi
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
26/06/2006\|	China: Crisis and Implications
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
24/06/2006\|	UKRAINE-Timoshenko, the Turkmenbashi and a Dilemma for Gazprom
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
22/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREA - Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	NORTH KOREAN - The Logic of a North Korean Missile Test
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	MEXICO - Why the Upcoming Election Matters
20/06/2006\|	ROBERT ZOELLICK - Washington Staffs for a New View of China
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
20/06/2006\|	WORLD CUP-The Potential -- and Reality -- of Violence at the World Cup
05/06/2006\|	Key Steps to Avoid Falling Victim to Crime
04/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Acquiring -- and Practicing -- the Necessary Skills (Part III)
03/06/2006\|	Cosmetic Change in China's Economy
02/06/2006\|	Mexico: Of Soccer and Electoral Strategy
02/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Analysis and Planning II
01/06/2006\|	Self-Protection: Assessing Threats and Vulnerabilities
01/06/2006\|	U.S. Perceptions of a Chinese Threat
31/05/2006\|	Bicycles: Another Lethal Weapon in the Militant Arsenal
29/05/2006\|	Peru, Colombia: Elections and Second Thoughts on Populism
28/05/2006\|	Kaibiles: The New Lethal Force in the Mexican Drug Wars
23/05/2006\|	The U.S. Immigration Debate's Fallout in Mexico
17/05/2006\|	EU, Latin America: Summit, Or Pique?
17/05/2006\|	Brazil: When Violence Reaches a Tipping Point
13/05/2006\|	Beheadings in Mexico: The Foreign Element in Mexico's Drug Wars
07/05/2006\|	Diplomatic Snubs and Sino-U.S. Relations
07/05/2006\|	Bolivia's Energy Nationalization: Opting for Short-Term Gains
06/05/2006\|	China, Russia, U.S.: Washington's Strategic Insults
06/05/2006\|	U.S.: CIA Director Porter Goss' Resignation
04/05/2006\|	No Relief at the Gas Pumps
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia: Nationalized Oil and Gas
02/05/2006\|	Bolivia and Leftward Movement in Latin America
30/04/2006\|	COLOMBIA- A Slaying Threatens the President's Re-Election
25/04/2006\|	Repsol in Bolivia: When Business Serves Foreign Policy
24/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
24/04/2006\|	Al Qaeda's New Focus on Sudan
23/04/2006\|	Russia: Pipeline Monopolies Stymie Infrastructure Improvement
23/04/2006\|	Iraq: Jaafari Steps Aside -- Not Down
21/04/2006\|	Bush, Hu and the 'Accidental' Journalist
21/04/2006\|	The Shiite Schisms
21/04/2006\|	The Pakistan-Jihadist Connection
18/04/2006\|	PNA: Hamas' Message in the Tel Aviv Attack
18/04/2006\|	Russia: The Centralization Trend Continues
18/04/2006\|	Countdown to a Coup in Nepal?
18/04/2006\|	Vietnam: The Party Congress Tackles Corruption
17/04/2006\|	India, Venezuela: Caracas Diversifies its Oil Markets
13/04/2006\|	North Korea: Weighing the Benefits of the Nuclear Card
13/04/2006\|	Idealism, Realism and U.S. Foreign Policy
10/04/2006\|	The Saudi Militant Threat in Israel and the Palestinian Territories
08/04/2006\|	Political Instability in Europe's Core
06/04/2006\|	Ukraine: An Orange Reunion?
06/04/2006\|	Italy's Attraction for Islamist Militants
05/04/2006\|	Venezuela's Oil Dreams
30/03/2006\|	RUSSIA: WTO Accession Still Not a Done Deal -- From Any Point of View
28/03/2006\|	ITALY - Running the Electoral Numbers
28/03/2006\|	Thailand's Political Unrest: The Significance for Multinationals
27/03/2006\|	BRAZIL- Continuity at the Finance Ministry
24/03/2006\|	CHINA-Pumping an Iranian LNG Deal for Oil
24/03/2006\|	Residential Security - PDF
24/03/2006\|	CORRUPTION-Execution in China: Sending a Message to Big Business
24/03/2006\|	SPAIN- ETA's Cease-Fire and its Search for Viability
24/03/2006\|	GERMANY -The German Weapons - Smuggling Scandal: Opportunities for Merkel
24/03/2006\|	IRAN - Reading Between the Lines of Khamenei's Blessing
22/03/2006\|	The Unlikely Terrorist Threat Against U.S. Agriculture
22/03/2006\|	INDONESIA- Violent Protests: A Message to Multinationals?
20/02/2006\|	INDONESIA-Yudhoyono's Plan for Indonesia's Resurrection
20/02/2006\|	Nigeria - Same News, Different Network
18/02/2006\|	India: Hopes for Nuclear -- and Geopolitical -- Power
11/02/2006\|	India: King Abdullah Gets the Royal Treatment
11/02/2006\|	Drugs, Weapons and Violence: The U.S.-Mexican Border's Hot Commodities
11/02/2006\|	Mexico, U.S.: Election-Year Rhetoric on Both Sides of the Border
07/02/2006\|	China's Motive in Oil Deals with India
26/01/2006\|	The Bin Laden Tape and the Strike in Damadola
25/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near-Great Powers -- Part II
22/01/2006\|	Annual Forecast 2006: The Year of Great and Near -Great Powers -- Part I
19/01/2006\|	EU: Austria's Presidential Problem
19/01/2006\|	Taiwan: Chen Risks China's Ire to Visit Gadhafi
14/01/2006\|	Thailand and the Possible Terrorist Threat to Tourists
14/01/2006\|	Travel Security: The Importance of Understanding the Risks
12/01/2006\|	Iran's latest nuclear provocation : the resumption of nuclear fuel
12/01/2006\|	Arms Market: Accident or careful planning?
06/01/2006\|	Russian gas: This is not all about Moscow -- Germany has a stake as well
20/12/2005\|	Evo Morales won Bolivia's presidential elections Dec.18: Morales Signals Left, Turns Right
01/08/2005\|	Argentina: Kirchner's Populism and a Darkening Economic Future
06/01/2005\|	Iran - Rice: 'If negotiations have been exhausted, we have the votes'

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Peoples of the Earth | Martin E. Andersen

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