Bhutto’s death eliminates the largest opposition figure in the country. Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has a presence in all four provinces in Pakistan. Her death is also is a major blow to the PPP, which the Bhutto dynasty has led since the party’s inception in 1966. No one in the dynasty is ready to step in to take the PPP reins. Thus, the party is now likely to weaken, and with every other party only being strong in one or (at best) two provinces, political fragmentation is likely to follow. Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistani Muslim League-Nawaz is the next largest party; other parties are very small and region-specific. The crisis of governance currently seen in Pakistan’s Pashtun areas could spread to other parts of the country and lead to clashes between groups.

Bhutto’s absence gives the establishment forces an opportunity to strengthen their hold on power. But it is unlikely that the establishment will reap any benefits; Bhutto’s death will exponentially exacerbate the existing state of political unrest because the blame will fall on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s regime.

This situation benefits the Taliban and al Qaeda and their supporters who would want Pakistan’s security forces to be busy containing political unrest and violence rather than performing counter-jihadist operations focused on northwestern Pakistan. The unrest could reach a point at which army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani steps in and imposes martial law. Unless Kayani is able to work out an arrangement with civilian groups, martial law could complicate the situation.