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07/09/2009 | Germany's elections- Not yet in Angela Merkel's bag

The Economist Staff

Three state elections suggest that the outcome of the federal election on September 27th may be less certain than it once seemed.

 

“THAT wasn’t as boring as I thought it would be,” exclaimed Gudrun Giesmann, a supporter of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), after watching Frank-Walter Steinmeier at a rally in Hanover. Mr Steinmeier, now foreign minister, has less than a month left to try to unseat Angela Merkel as chancellor after Germany’s federal election on September 27th. A former bureaucrat, he is a novice politician but his campaign performances are improving, as Ms Giesmann noticed. His plea for a “strong SPD” was combative, almost rousing.

It came after three state elections had given a glimmer of hope to the SPD, trailing Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) by over ten points. On August 30th the CDU suffered stinging defeats in Saarland and Thuringia. It remains the largest party in both states, but it may be forced out of power by the SPD with the Greens and the ex-communist Left Party. Only in Saxony can the CDU form a “black-yellow” coalition with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), a partnership Ms Merkel hopes to replicate at federal level.

That does not mean that the SPD will close the gap before election day. Ms Merkel is popular: three times as many Germans want her to remain chancellor as want Mr Steinmeier to replace her. The SPD rules out co-operating with the Left Party at national level, limiting its coalition options. But the state results suggest that the SPD may be able to block a CDU-FDP alliance and so cling to power as Ms Merkel’s junior partner in a continuation of today’s “grand coalition”. The message is that “black-yellow is not wanted in this country”, crowed Mr Steinmeier in Hanover. He is not so much running against Ms Merkel as against the liberal-leaning coalition she aspires to lead.

German voters face a muddy choice. The grand coalition has managed the economy reasonably well during both the upswing and the bust. But it has enacted few bold reforms and even chipped away at earlier ones. It is hard to see a second instalment offering anything new. The black-yellow coalition that Mr Steinmeier reviles would stop the reform rollback and might attempt new ones in welfare and health care. Germany’s natural consensus-seeking will temper anything such a coalition dreams up, but the change in attitude could be profound.

Ms Merkel’s strategy for keeping her job is to pretend that it is not being contested. She ignores SPD salvoes. A CDU-FDP partnership would pull Germany out of recession faster than any other, she insists, though without saying why (and she also backs away from several FDP policies). The CDU’s manifesto is a study in vagueness, so it can either couple with Germany’s pro-business liberals or with a party that still espouses “democratic socialism”.

Ms Merkel herself has been fuzzy, hoping to woo voters who like her but not her centre-right party. The Saarland and Thuringia defeats have provoked calls for a sharper message from worried CDU leaders. “We won’t get there in a sleeping car,” grumbled Baden-Württemberg’s premier, Günther Oettinger. Ms Merkel has slapped them all down. She sees “no need at all” for a change in strategy.

Mr Steinmeier hopes to transform the election—which has so far felt like an exercise in renewing Ms Merkel’s job contract—into a real contest. “We’re fighting an election. What about you, Ms Merkel?” read one poster held aloft in Hanover. If allowed to govern with the FDP, she would slash taxes for the rich and vandalise the welfare state, Mr Steinmeier claims. The caricature is unfair, but it could enliven what has been a largely issueless election.

The SPD’s big plan is to create 4m jobs by 2020, largely by turning Germany into a “Silicon Valley” of ecologically friendly, export-oriented new industries. The proposed means are less daring: state agencies should buy electric cars, for example. Like all parties, the SPD wants to invest more in education, but it is honest enough to call for higher income taxes on the rich to help pay for it. It couples this with a ringing defence of its traditional pro-worker policies and various wrong-headed ideas for improving the workings of capitalism. It wants to introduce a countrywide minimum wage that would destroy jobs. The SPD would also tax stockmarket trades and oblige investors in companies to wait a year before exercising their voting rights.

The CDU’s non-committal manifesto is friendlier in tone to the market and, partly because of what it does not say, more conducive to job creation. But much will depend on its coalition partners (the Greens are a third, if remote, possibility). Black-yellow would be keen to cut taxes (though the FDP promises bigger cuts than the CDU). In place of minimum wages, both parties would shepherd low-skilled workers into jobs through state subsidies to top up their wages. The FDP wants beneficiaries to save more for their own health insurance, but is only faintly seconded by the CDU, keen to avoid suspicions that it is scheming to privatise the system.

Ms Merkel does not want any of these contrasts to become a full-throated war of ideas that she might lose. Her black-yellow preference is at odds with the soothing persona she has adopted for the campaign. She would rather run on her record as leader of a big-tent government that presided over an economic boom and then battled the subsequent slump.

It may help that unemployment looks likely to rise by less than once feared, thanks partly to the coalition’s policy of subsidising companies to employ workers part time rather than sacking them. The number of jobless workers rose by a relatively mild 276,000 to 3.5m in the year to August; next year it is expected to breach the 4m mark but remain below 5m. Ms Merkel will no doubt claim the credit.

Even Mr Steinmeier’s supporters doubt if he will unseat her. Ms Giesmann says she would not be disappointed if Ms Merkel remained head of another grand coalition. But Ms Merkel is running a risk. If she does not defend a distinctive set of ideas, voters may conclude that they share the SPD’s view that she has none. The increasingly feisty Mr Steinmeier will try to corner her when the two meet in a televised debate on September 13th. If Ms Merkel does not define herself, she risks letting her rival define her instead. Re-election is not yet a sure thing.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House