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13/12/2010 | Italy’s tottering government - Finished by Fini?

The Economist Staff

The machinations of Gianfranco Fini before next week’s confidence votes

 

ITALIAN politics is seldom straightforward. But rarely has it been as confused as in the approach to a flurry of votes due in parliament on December 14th that could topple Silvio Berlusconi’s conservative government. This is not least because of the uncertainty surrounding the intentions and tactics of the man who precipitated the crisis, Gianfranco Fini, speaker of the lower-house Chamber of Deputies.

According to Maurizio Pessato of SWG, a polling firm, the main reason for the decline in Mr Berlusconi’s popularity this year has been the split on the right that opened up in the spring, when Mr Fini challenged his party leader. “Somebody who had seemed strong suddenly started to look weak,” says Mr Pessato. He adds that the breach raised fears among right-wing voters of national disunity (Mr Fini has a mainly southern electoral constituency, whereas Mr Berlusconi, a Milanese, is close to the regionalist Northern League).

Mr Fini, a one-time neo-fascist who has gradually been shifting leftward ever since the mid-1990s, argues for a more modern, tolerant and less autocratic form of conservatism than that represented by the 74-year-old media mogul. Few doubt his sincerity. But his fledgling party, Future and Freedom for Italy (FLI), has perhaps the oddest pedigree of any progressive group on the European right.

Salvatore Merlo, author of a study of Mr Fini’s transformation*, writes that “though Fini would never admit it…many of the positions adopted by him today derive from a certain thread in fascist culture.” Many of Mr Fini’s fellow-rebels originated in the social wing of neo-fascism, whose anti-capitalist adherents embraced such ideas as feminism and environmentalism as long ago as the 1970s. Some once looked to the controversial Pino Rauti, who split from Mr Fini in 1995 in protest over his growing moderation. Still active at the age of 84, the former leader of Ordine Nuovo was acquitted only last month of involvement in a 1974 terrorist bombing.

Mr Fini’s stated aim is a new government with a new programme, but not necessarily a new leader. So far, Mr Berlusconi has refused to make any concessions, which has left two problems for his erstwhile supporter. The first is that Mr Fini is being pushed into an ever closer relationship with another former partner of Mr Berlusconi’s, Pier Ferdinando Casini, whose Centre Union (UDC) was part of the previous conservative government between 2001 and 2006. The FLI and UDC have already voted together several times against the government. But whereas Mr Fini’s long-term aim is to shake up the right, Mr Casini, a former Christian Democrat, wants to create a strong third force in Italy that could hold the balance of power.

The other problem for Mr Fini is what to do next week. On December 7th the Senate approved Italy’s 2011 budget, clearing the way for the three votes. The government is expected easily to win a confidence motion in the upper-house Senate. But it faces two no-confidence motions in the Chamber of Deputies, where the creation of the FLI has robbed Mr Berlusconi of his majority (though he is now busily trying to lure over opposition members). Fearful of being branded a traitor, Mr Fini has vowed not to deliver power to the centre-left opposition. Yet one censure motion in the lower house is part-sponsored by the FLI itself. If its members voted for Mr Berlusconi’s survival after all the criticism levelled at him by their leader, that would outrage many of the party’s grassroots.

Nor would abstention offer a way out. If he is to avoid defeat, Mr Berlusconi must win a majority of votes cast in both motions. So the effect is the same whether the FLI abstains or votes no. December 14th will be a crunch for Mr Fini as much as for Mr Berlusconi.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House