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16/08/2011 | Syria and the region - Unfriended

The Economist Staff

TIME is running out, but for whom? Since a popular uprising against his rule erupted five months ago, Syria’s President Bashar Assad has fought back with a mix of promised reforms and brutal repression. During Ramadan, the Muslim fasting month which started at the beginning of August, he has veered towards even starker repression.

 

In a rolling campaign of assaults Mr Assad’s men have shot and blasted their way into one rebellious town or city after another, swiftly adding some 300 more dead to the 1,500 Syrians killed since March. Brute force has chased unarmed protesters indoors in big cities such as Hama and Deir ez-Zor—though not for long, judging by the pattern elsewhere in Syria, where rebellion has reignited as soon as troops have left. It has also stoked mounting disgust at home and abroad, leaving Mr Assad more isolated than ever.

Syria’s neighbours, whose long silence reflected fears that Mr Assad’s fall might cause more trouble than his survival, seem to have changed their minds. Turkey shares an 850km-long border with Syria and has cultivated ties, partly to dissuade Syria from stirring trouble within its restless Kurdish minority. But Recep Tayyip Erdogan, its prime minister, now says bluntly that his patience is running out. Declaring ominously that he views Syria’s unrest as a domestic Turkish affair, he dispatched his foreign minister on August 9th to demand speeded up reforms and an immediate pull-out of troops from Syrian cities.

A similar message came from Saudi Arabia, where worries over the spread of Arab revolutions had until now outweighed distaste for Syria’s alliance with what it regards as a menacingly meddlesome Shia Iran. On August 7th King Abdullah, a self-appointed bastion of Sunni Islam, issued a rare public statement demanding a stop to Syria’s “killing machine”. The kingdom withdrew its ambassador, a move swiftly followed by other Gulf monarchies. The Arab League, notably silent about Syria, was suddenly emboldened to announce its own concern over the loss of civilian life. Egypt’s foreign minister warned that Syria was reaching a point of no return, an opinion echoed by such diverse Egyptian institutions as al-Azhar University and the cineastes union.

The chorus of regional criticism amounts to more than an embarrassment for Mr Assad. It removes excuses for Russia and China to block tougher words or action from the UN Security Council, as they did earlier this month. With other countries now adopting the same rhetoric that Western powers have used since May, when America called on Mr Assad to reform or step aside, the stage looks set for worse punishment. Leaks from Washington suggest that the Obama administration may consider demanding Mr Assad’s departure. Further sanctions, on top of EU and American targeting of some regime figures, were imposed by America on August 10th, though some analysts now suggest it would be better to promise to lift them if Mr Assad agreed to go.

No one expects a Libya-like military intervention. Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, has pointed out that Syria’s opposition does not wish for such help. Besides, relatively densely populated Syria presents far more awkward military terrain than barren Libya, and NATO has no appetite for further adventures.

To date, Mr Assad’s regime has categorically rejected foreign criticism, sticking to the line that its forces are flushing out terrorist gangs and enemy agents. Near self-sufficiency in food and energy, and fear felt by many middle-class Syrians—carefully nurtured by the regime—of a descent into Iraq-style sectarian bloodletting, have all helped to bolster the government.

Yet observers inside Syria now sense a shift in mood that outside pressure can only help to accelerate further. It is not just growing revulsion against the security forces’ tactics that fire Syrian sentiment, but a spreading conviction that the regime is entering its twilight. Promises of reform are not trusted and cannot in any case match the demands on the street. Whispers of defections, and the recent, unexplained replacement of Mr Assad’s defence minister, hint at a shrinking of the regime’s inner circle.

Despite some evidence of isolated reprisals against security men, the opposition has relied almost entirely on peaceful methods of protest, undermining government claims of sectarian motives. The savagery of the regime’s response has convinced protesters that the movement has to continue or, as one protester in Damascus warns, “face revenge of unimaginable proportions.”

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House