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28/10/2013 | Indian foreign affairs -Eastern promise

The Economist Staff

Manmohan Singh’s foreign policy is undercut by domestic weakness

 

THE more embattled a leader is at home, the brighter the lure of foreign horizons. Manmohan Singh’s growing collection of air miles makes the point. His trip early this week to Russia, his ninth as India’s prime minister, was followed on October 22nd by one to China. Just before, on October 10th, he addressed a gathering of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), in Brunei, and visited Indonesia to launch annual bilateral summitry.

Hyperactivity is not new. Roughly a tenth of his near-decade as prime minister has been spent abroad; he has flown more than 1m km (620,000 miles) in 72 official visits. But now, beleaguered at home by scandal, an economy growing by barely 4% and gloomy prospects for his ruling Congress party, the airport departure lounge is more tempting than ever.

Diplomats may grumble that time wasted on formalities could be better used, for instance in researching and setting long-term policy. And nothing could boost India’s clout abroad faster than sorting out economic problems at home. But at least Mr Singh—dismissed as too often silent and ineffective at home—shows interest and some leadership in foreign affairs. And abroad he is unconstrained by his party boss, Sonia Gandhi.

Nobody talks of a “Singh doctrine”, and activity in the short term can look chaotic. The main news from Moscow on October 21st, for example, was of how an unworkable nuclear liability law had deterred even Russia, an old ally, from building more nuclear-power stations in India. In China the release of an official policy paper on Tibet, just as Mr Singh arrived, might have been seen as a snub.

Over time, however, Mr Singh’s foreign policy has shown some coherence. In his first term a 2005 civil-nuclear deal with America underlined India’s deepening links with Western democracies. On October 23rd came another measure of the country’s growing confidence: official equanimity as Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, met Barack Obama in the White House. With less fanfare, but no less important, Mr Singh’s second term has brought closer ties to Asian democracies.

They have in common Mr Singh’s push for economic relations as a foundation for strategic ones. At the Brunei ASEAN summit, for example, he called for an existing free-trade deal between South-East Asia and India on goods to be extended to cover services and investment. He wants bilateral trade to be worth $100 billion by 2015, up from $76 billion last year.

In turn India’s Asian diplomacy is part of a bigger “look east” policy. With Indonesia, for example, India has a “strategic partnership” that includes discussions of maritime security. If it proves more than just talk, two large Asian democracies, both friendly with America and both wary of China, could have much to share.

And that is also true of Japan, where relations are especially warm, the more so since Shinzo Abe returned to power. Japan has promised $4.5 billion for a freight and industrial corridor between Mumbai and Delhi. Last month it extended a currency-swap deal, from $15 billion to $50 billion, to support India’s rupee. Next month Emperor Akihito makes a rare visit, and Mr Abe is expected in January. Japan is also hoping to sell coastguard seaplanes, perhaps a hint of future co-operation on defence.

Behind all this is a shared preoccupation with China. Srinath Raghavan, of the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi, notes that ties with Japan, for instance, have become much closer in the past two years because of tensions between Japan and China in the East China Sea.

The dragon in the room

India’s direct concern with China is its disputed 3,380km-long Himalayan border. This week brought apparent progress in managing that, though not settling it. In Beijing on October 23rd Mr Singh and China’s prime minister, Li Keqiang (pictured), oversaw the signing of nine agreements on such issues as river-sharing and co-operation against terrorism.

Most notable among these was the Border Defence Co-operation Agreement, partly because it was signed by India’s defence secretary and a leader of China’s army, the PLA. In theory soldiers at unmarked parts of the border will get clearer rules to avoid or limit confrontation, such as during the three-week stand-off after China’s incursion into Ladakh in April. The risk of clashes is growing as India catches up with China by building roads and other infrastructure on its side of the border.

Yet what is really needed is a firmer push to settle rival claims to the border territory, not just to manage clashes. This almost certainly means accepting existing areas of control: China keeps Aksai Chin in the west, India holds on to Arunachal Pradesh in the east. And Mr Singh said “negotiations towards a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable settlement” to the border question will be “our strategic benchmark”. That would be welcome if true, but no one in Delhi believes there is any prospect of it soon.

Sing me one last song

One reason for hesitation is that Mr Singh is in no position to do such a deal. He is on the way out: recent trips amount, in effect, to a global farewell tour. India’s general election, in May, will almost certainly mark the 81-year-old’s retirement. During an election campaign, no politician would dare to make any foreign compromise, such as giving up a claim to territory.

Such concerns are most evident in matters relating to India’s near abroad. Mr Singh is hesitating over whether to attend a Commonwealth summit in Sri Lanka next month because of Tamil opposition in the south. Similarly, his government, despite promises to Bangladesh, will not present a bill to parliament on swapping a chunk of territory along a messy border with West Bengal for fear of a local backlash there.

Such caution reflects profound weakness domestically. Yet any successor government could face similar constraints. On October 18th Narendra Modi, India’s main opposition leader, from the Bharatiya Janata Party, gave his first speech on foreign policy. He sounded much tougher than Mr Singh, for example when warning that India is making a mockery of itself with “its limited and timid approach” to China. “We remained weak where we needed to be strong,” he said.

But even if Mr Modi were to win the election next year, he would probably rely on regional coalition allies to sustain him in office, such as those in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal who could undercut his ability to set long-term policy, at least in the near abroad. Bafflingly, he used his speech to promote the idea that Indian states should be given more power to shape foreign policy. If he ever gets into office, he may regret that line

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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07/08/2010|
07/08/2010|
12/07/2010|
12/06/2010|
12/06/2010|
12/06/2010|
24/05/2010|
24/05/2010|
11/05/2010|
10/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House