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26/10/2012 | India and China - Unsettled for a long time yet

The Economist Staff

Fifty years after a nasty high-altitude war, a border dispute remains unresolved.

 

THE Venerable Lobsang Norbu, a 77-year-old monk who presides over one of several Tibetan Buddhist hilltop monasteries in Arunachal Pradesh, in north-eastern India, recalls the “very horrible” war that China launched 50 years ago this week. Flares lit up the night, then gunfire erupted. Terrified villagers and monks fled through the pine and rhododendron forests to nearby Bhutan. Many of India’s poorly led and outgunned soldiers panicked and ran just as quickly.

Other residents remember the sudden appearance of Chinese soldiers, whom Mao Zedong had earlier deployed to put down a Tibetan uprising north of the border. The attackers swarmed over the disputed Himalayan border. They quickly overran Tawang, a monastery town wedged beside Tibet.

Karma Wangchuk was then working for Indian intelligence. He says he hid in the long grass and counted in the tough young soldiers, “some in white hats”. When he got beyond 500 he was spotted and fired at. He fled to safety on the Indian plains far below. Other locals, ethnic Monpa, whose language is close to Tibetan, talk of how the Chinese soldiers behaved decently towards civilians. Yet they have no doubts about wanting to remain as part of India.

Although the Indian press has made much of the anniversary this month, officials in Delhi, the capital, have studiously ignored the memory of the country’s swift and humiliating defeat in the war. There is, says Ajai Shukla, author of a forthcoming book on Tawang and the Sino-Indian border, “very little glory from 1962”.

Tensions had risen in the late 1950s over the disputed border, 3,380km (2,100 miles) long, when India learnt of a new road the Chinese had built through the Aksai Chin at the border’s western end. The empty region was claimed by India as traditionally part of Ladakh, but to the Chinese it was (and still is) a strategic link between Tibet and Xinjiang. So confident were Indian generals that the Chinese had neither the will nor the ability to launch a war across the line of control that they established outposts behind the Chinese troops in Aksai Chin. China’s Communist leaders had other ideas. Among other things, they were angry at India for granting refuge to the Dalai Lama and other Tibetans who had fled south. They massed troops in Aksai Chin and north of Arunachal Pradesh.

The invaders raced south, and the war claimed around 4,500 lives before China unilaterally declared it over and pulled out. The Chinese had exposed the weakness of India’s army. Relations between the Asian behemoths have been cagey, at best, ever since. No shot has been fired since 1993, yet the border disputes persist.

Ordinary Indians have paid a price for that, a senior politician in Arunachal Pradesh complains. He says anxiety over China is to blame for a shortage of central funds for hydropower stations, roads, bridges and railways. Other opportunities have also been missed. China, including Hong Kong, is now India’s largest trading partner, exchanging goods worth $74 billion last year. Yet nearly all of the trade takes place by sea, with only a trickle passing directly by land. As a result, India’s north-east lies moribund, forgotten between Bangladesh, Myanmar and a forbidding Chinese border. Street markets in Tawang are packed with Chinese crockery, toys and other small manufactures. Yet none have come through the nearby border post. (There had once been a time, even under the communists, when Lhasa, the Tibetan capital, was provisioned via Calcutta.)

Instead of trade, the region is seeing a steady rise in military spending. Worried by China building a railway and all-weather road network on the Tibetan plateau over the past decade, India’s border force is upgrading the treacherous, zigzagging track up to Tawang. For the moment it is a two-day drive from the plain to the treeless border. By 2016 the track is due to become a sleek national highway, able to carry troops quickly up to the border.

Indeed, India is raising four new divisions—70,000 soldiers—for the frontier, and establishing new, better-equipped bases. “Half a million men are eyeball to eyeball,” says Mohan Guruswamy, a China expert in Delhi. He sees diminishing prospects for settling the border dispute. Despite well-established routines between the two sides’ infantry patrols to avoid clashes, he worries about a persistent risk of accidental conflict.

A deal over the border has for years been self-evident: China gets to keep Aksai Chin in the west and India gets to keep the 80,000 square kilometres of Arunachal Pradesh, which China informally calls “South Tibet”. In the past China has signalled a readiness to settle the dispute along just such lines. But Indian leaders and parliament have always balked, saying voters would not tolerate losing an inch of territory, even when no settled populations are involved.

China can be capricious, too. It deliberately provoked tensions over the border when it issued visas to residents of Arunachal Pradesh only on stapled pieces of paper rather than in passports, a signal that the Chinese government does not recognise Indian authority over the state. Such steps look calculated to cause offence.

Broader relations have improved over the past couple of years, though with no progress on the border. Occasional plans for joint military operations are announced and then quickly forgotten. Formal border talks exist—a 16th round is due between special representatives—but no one expects anything to follow from them.

As the years slip by, China may grow less interested in a quiet border. Observers in India worry that if either China’s generals or its nationalist social-media activists and editors gained sway over border discussions, Chinese diplomats would struggle to propose compromises.

Back in the Tawang valley, Dorjee Khandu Thongdok, a jovial politician, campaigns to raise awareness over the “agony and sufferings during the Chinese aggression” of 1962. Munching on roasted sweetcorn just harvested from nearby fields, he has no trust in talks with China. A military solution is certainly no answer, he insists. But he would, he says, not be surprised if the Chinese again invade Arunachal, just as they did half a century ago. The task of both Indian and Chinese leaders is to ensure that he is wrong.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House