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20/09/2011 | Brazil - Brazilian politics: A packed chessboard

The Economist Staff

TO THE outside world, Brazil’s last elections seem like yesterday. But the country is already gearing up for the next round in October 2012. That is when city mayors and councillors will be elected—and nowhere is more closely watched than São Paulo, a municipality bigger than many countries (with 11m inhabitants). Its mayoral race has national implications.

 

São Paulo is the stronghold of the largest opposition party, the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB). Its choice of candidate will shed light on its strategy in the race for president in 2014. José Serra, its defeated presidential candidate in 2002 and 2010, stepped down halfway through his previous mayoral term in order to stand for state governor, despite having promised before the election that he would serve a full term. A repeat performance would weaken his credibility. So if he does stand for mayor, it suggests that he has given up hope of another presidential run.

The PSDB is unlikely to give Mr Serra the third shot at the president he seems to crave. But he may not wait around to find out. In March São Paulo’s current mayor, Gilberto Kassab, stepped down from the Democratas (DEMs), a smaller ally of the PSDB, in order to set up his own party, the Party of Social Democrats (PSD), which finally came into being on September 1st. Mr Kassab described his creation as “collaborative but independent”. The reality is that the PSD is closer to the government coalition than to the DEMs. Mr Kassab himself is thought to be mulling over a run for state governor in 2014. Since Mr Serra is his close friend and political ally, one possibility is that the PSD could be intended as a base from which Mr Serra could launch his third presidential run.

Mr Serra’s departure would leave the way clear for Aécio Neves, a former governor of Brazil’s third richest and second most populous state, Minas Gerais, to stand as the PSDB’s presidential candidate in 2014. The party’s biggest vote winner in 2010 and regarded as its best hope of regaining the presidency, he has disappointed admirers who thought he would use his current role as senator for the state to set out his vision for the country. Instead, he seems to be waiting to see who he might be standing against—Dilma Rousseff, the current president, or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, her predecessor—before deciding whether he is willing to run. That may be prudent, but it hardly suggests political courage.

Just as internal party politics are hotting up, the dividing lines between parties are blurring. In recent weeks Ms Rousseff has defined her partnership with São Paulo’s governor, the PSDB’s Geraldo Alckmin, as “exceptional”, and has spoken warmly of Brazil’s period under Fernando Henrique Cardoso (president from 1995 to 2002), praising him as “the president who contributed decisively to the consolidation of our economic stability”. That is a big change from Lula, who frequently referred to Mr Cardoso’s legacy as a “cursed inheritance”, even as he maintained his predecessor’s orthodox macroeconomic policies. For admirers of Mr Cardoso, that is a welcome, if belated, recognition of his achievements. But for the PSDB, it will make it harder to carve out a distinct political identity.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House