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07/01/2010 | Afghanistan - Deeper in the mire

The Economist Staff

A worsening political crisis in Afghanistan.This was supposed to be the month when Afghanistan would put an end to nearly eight months of political crisis and get on with beating back the Taliban insurgency. Western diplomats had talked optimistically of Hamid Karzai moving past his fraudulent re-election as president, with the appointment of a government of talented technocrats.

 

And plans for another round of elections (this time for the parliament) would be quietly dropped, letting Stanley McChrystal, the American commander of NATO forces, concentrate on using the extra troops granted to him by Barack Obama to “secure the population” rather than just polling stations.

But the local political class is proving reluctant to follow the West’s script. Two specific problems threaten to cause months of more political uncertainty and perhaps another constitutional crisis.

The first is that parliament has turned down so many of Mr Karzai’s ministerial nominees. It had been expected that some of the 24 names put forward (which is not even the full cabinet) would be rejected, but no one thought that 17 would be turned down. The MPs themselves seemed shocked, although many talked of striking a blow against “shareholder democracy” – what they see as a blatant attempt by warlords to grab cabinet jobs in return for help given to Mr Karzai in last year’s election.

Most of those rejected were allied in one way or another with civil-war era militia leaders or political parties. One, Ismail Khan, was a particularly famous warlord. He was turned down for re-appointment to his old job as energy minister. Some see this as a heartening sign that Afghanistan’s much abused parliament is becoming more assertive, but others, including the UN boss in the country, Kai Eide, say it will only prolong a paralysis which has afflicted the government for nearly half a year.

The government has done little since campaigning began in the presidential election last July. Accusations of massive fraud and the need for a complex recount and audit meant Mr Karzai was not declared the winner until November. The appointment of his cabinet was further delayed by complex horsetrading over jobs between Mr Karzai and his warlord supporters– a task made all the harder because Mr Karzai had apparently promised to give the same positions to many different people. In the meantime thousands of projects and schemes have stalled as donors and diplomats wait for new ministers to be appointed.

Although parliament did approve Mr Karzai’s choices for the most important ministries, including defence and finance, the president does not want to be seen to be presiding over a half-formed government when he meets international leaders in London on January 28th. The purpose of that gathering, according to the British prime minister, Gordon Brown, is to see how more responsibility for running Afghanistan can be handed to a demonstrably competent new government, as a prelude to an eventual withdrawal of foreign troops.

Mr Karzai hopes that by ordering MPs to delay their winter break, which was meant to begin in the coming days, he can push through a new list of nominees before the London conference. MPs may well again object if a cabinet full of warlords’ associates is proposed. Yet Mr Karzai has to reward his supporters somehow, or risk seeing his political coalition fray. Many names are therefore likely to reappear, albeit for different ministerial jobs or ambassadorships.

Even if Karzai manages to scrape together a full cabinet soon another problem is looming: the announcement by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) that parliamentary elections must go ahead in May. For diplomats and election workers who survived last year’s violent presidential and provincial polls another round of voting in just five months is a sickening prospect.

Dire security in much of the country at what will be the start of the “fighting season” and a lack of time to vet candidates bode ill for a new election. Nor would it be possible to hold a credible poll under the auspices of the current IEC, which proved itself to be anything but independent in the presidential one.

Mr Karzai has so far praised the IEC and reserved his own criticism for the independent foreign officials who made a fuss about mass fraud. The palace has also made clear it wants an election to go ahead, sparking alarm among some liberal MPs that Mr Karzai is anxious to shore up his power by a stacking a new parliament with more warlord supporters.

If the election does not go ahead then meddling foreigners will be blamed. Without a new election it is likely that the life of the current parliament would be extended, although finding the constitutional means to do so will be tricky. But then, says one Western diplomat, the decision to extend Mr Karzai’s term and to declare him president when he failed to win the required half of all votes, were constitutionally doubtful too. “This is Afghanistan, they have grown used to changing the rules as they go along” the diplomat said.


 

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House