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13/07/2011 | The Bolivarian patient

The Economist Staff

Venezuela’s president returns, but his illness raises many questions about the country’s political future

 

HUGO CHÁVEZ does resurrection rather well. On June 30th, haggard and grim-faced, Venezuela’s president admitted in a 15-minute video recorded in Cuba that he was receiving treatment after the removal of a cancerous tumour.

Although he claimed to be recovering well, his language belied the optimistic message. He spoke of having faced an “abyss” and of the “steep path” back to health. During the 24 days he spent in a Havana hospital, no medical bulletins were issued, despite the fact that he spent hours under anaesthesia and four days in intensive care. No interim president was sworn in.

The lack of information on his condition led many, both friend and foe, to assume the worst. But in the early hours of July 4th a much more cheerful Mr Chávez arrived back unexpectedly in Venezuela. Pronouncing himself, via Twitter, “at home and very happy”, he summoned his followers to greet him at the presidential palace later in the day.

Twice before in the past two decades the former army officer has been out for the count. In 1992 he was jailed after leading a failed coup attempt against an elected government. Ten years later he was briefly ousted from power, only to return in triumph less than two days later. He invoked both these memories in his video message from Cuba, suggesting that once again he would overcome adversity.

He badly wanted to return before July 5th, the 200th anniversary of Venezuela’s declaration of independence. For Mr Chávez, who venerates Simón Bolívar, an independence hero, the date holds an almost mystical significance. “I couldn’t fail to show up at the bicentennial celebration,” he said from the palace balcony. But he added: “Let no one believe that my presence here means we have won the battle” against cancer. Rather than presiding in person, he appeared at the independence-day celebration via video link.

Mr Chávez may well make a full recovery. Nevertheless, the events of the past month—and above all the secrecy surrounding them—raise doubts as to whether he will be fit enough to campaign for another term in a presidential election due in December 2012 (in 2009 he won a referendum abolishing term limits). That has heated up an incipient battle for the succession.

Diosdado Cabello, a former vice-president who as an army officer took part in the 1992 coup attempt, leads a powerful faction on the right of Mr Chávez’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). His rivals include Nicolás Maduro, the foreign minister, and Elías Jaua, the vice-president and former student radical who has been part of the inner circle for much of Mr Chávez’s 12 years in power. The president’s elder brother, Adán, governor of their home state of Barinas, is another potential contender. He bid for attention while the president was in hospital, by saying that force, not just elections, might legitimately be used to retain power. Adán, along with Hugo’s daughters, appeared on the palace balcony when the president returned, as ministers were forced to watch from below. A cabinet reshuffle is in the works, according to Mr Jaua.

While the president convalesces, he will need to demonstrate that he still has fire in his belly, or ambitious PSUV faction leaders may well openly start to conspire against one another. A former PSUV leader, the late General Alberto Müller Rojas, once described the party as a “nest of scorpions”. It would be characteristic of Mr Chávez if he now unleashed some radical measures, such as a new wave of expropriations of private companies. Cuba’s Fidel Castro, Mr Chávez’s mentor and ally, wrote this month that the foes of Venezuela’s president face “surprises”. But Mr Chávez’s ailment has also been a nasty surprise for Cuba, which relies on him for cheap oil (see article).

Even before his illness, Mr Chávez faced a battle in next year’s election. The economy is only just emerging from a two-year recession. Together with inflation, crime and collapsing public services, that has sapped his support. Polls still give him an approval rating of close to 50%. Fully fit, Mr Chávez is a formidable campaigner. But without him, the “Bolivarian revolution” looks doomed. “Without Chávez, there’s no revolution nor anything resembling one,” Mr Cabello said in March.

Venezuela’s opposition, too, must adapt to these uncertainties. Gathered in the Democratic Unity coalition, it plans to select a presidential candidate in a primary in February. But if Mr Chávez is unable to contest the election, and especially if the PSUV were then to split, some opposition leaders might be tempted to go it alone. There have been calls to bring forward the date of the primary, but they have so far been rejected. The opposition has stressed that the constitution must be respected; it called, without success, for Mr Jaua to take the reins temporarily.

Over the past 12 years Mr Chávez has concentrated power in his own hands. Other nominally autonomous institutions, such as the legislature and the courts, are led by acolytes, as is the army and the state oil company, PDVSA. Saying that he wanted to rule until 2031, the president has been careful not to designate a successor. He has made sure that he is the only arbiter. If he can no longer play that role, turbulent times lie ahead.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House