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29/03/2015 | Nuclear talks with Iran -Distrust and verify

The Economist Staff

Unless Iran will accept rigorous inspections, negotiators will find it hard to convince sceptics a good deal is possible

 

IT WAS never going to be easy to get an agreement between Iran on the one hand and six world powers on the other. But the chances now seem quite high that some sort of deal outline, in which constraints on the Iranian nuclear programme are accepted in return for the lifting of sanctions, will be announced between now and March 31st, a self-imposed deadline for this stage of the negotiations. Intensive, last-gasp talks have been under way since March 26th in Lausanne, and it seems that all sides have too much invested to accept failure.

Just what will be agreed is still unclear. For the Americans, led by secretary of state John Kerry, the aim was to get a solid framework established which would then pave the way for several months of highly technical discussions leading to the signing of a comprehensive agreement before the end of June. Mr Kerry and his boss, Barack Obama, felt they needed something pretty substantive to ward off attempts by Congress to impose tough new sanctions on Iran, which would almost certainly scupper any further negotiations. But if the Americans wanted hard detail, the Iranians appear to want the opposite—to keep things fuzzy—for similar reasons: to keep their own hardliners from attempting to sabotage a deal before it is done. The consequence is that there is now some talking down of whatever is likely to be revealed in the next few days.

There may also be another reason for the lowering of expectations. Quite simply, the gap between the two sides on some key issues is still big enough that time to find acceptable compromises is running out. Most of the attention over the past few months has focused on the number of uranium enrichment centrifuges the Iranians will be allowed to keep, how much of the low-enriched uranium they produce will have to be shipped out to Russia for re-processing and what steps will be taken to de-fang the heavy water reactor under construction at Arak (which offers an alternative plutonium path to a bomb). All of those issues are indeed vital in ensuring that Iran’s so-called “breakout capability”—the time it would need to produce enough fissile material for a single nuclear device—is extended from a couple of months to at least a year.

Agreement on those elements of a deal seem to be in place, for the most part. The problems lie elsewhere. One is the Iranian demand that it be allowed to continue research on much more advanced centrifuges. The worry is that if permitted to do so, the Iranians would have a better chance of building a small but efficient, clandestine enrichment facility. That could give them the option, at some point in the future, of scrapping the agreement and breaking out to a nuclear-weapons capability much faster.

But perhaps the biggest obstacle to a deal is an issue that has received very little attention so far. It is a given that no deal could be done unless a copper-bottomed inspection and verification regime is put in place—one, moreover, that would continue well after the 10-15 year expiry date of the main agreement. The phrase used by Western negotiators to describe the principle that must be met is “distrust and verify”.

What that means in practice is that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, will have the right to inspect any facility (declared or otherwise, civil or military) on demand (without notice or reason). The expression that has been used to describe this is “Additional Protocol Plus”.

Under the terms of the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), every signatory, which includes Iran, has to agree to submit to IAEA safeguards which allow for verifiable accounting of all of a state’s nuclear activities. This additional protocol gives the IAEA further inspection powers to verify that declared nuclear material is not diverted, but also to provide assurances as to the absence of any undeclared nuclear material and activities. The enhanced additional protocol is regarded as crucial in Iran’s case because of its long history of cheating and subterfuge.

It is quite clear that to comply with the new inspection regime the Iranians must come clean about what the IAEA calls the “possibly military dimensions” (PMDs) of its nuclear programme in the past and possibly into the present; intelligence agencies are divided over whether Iran stood down its sizeable nuclear weapons programme around 2003/4 or whether it continued, albeit in a more fragmented form. Despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Iran insists that it has never worked on nuclear weapons. Yet addressing the IAEA’s concerns is fundamental to the design of credible verification arrangements.

Worryingly, the negotiations on a comprehensive agreement, which have run throughout this year and the last, have not brought any increase in Iran's willingness to address the PMD issue. It still refuses the IAEA access to what it describes as military sites. In particular, Parchin, a military base which the IAEA believes may have been used for testing the detonation of high-explosive fuses designed for an implosion nuclear device, remains out of bounds. So also does access to Iranian scientists and engineers who may have worked on a nuclear weapons programme. As long as Iran believes it can declare any suspicious site a military base and therefore inaccessible to inspectors, it fails to address the fear that it might subvert a nuclear deal through “out of bounds” clandestine facilities.

It was never especially probable that a detailed, satisfactory verification regime would be included in the sort of substantive framework agreement that the Americans have been working for. The fine print can wait until the conclusion of a final deal. However, the accord that still seems likely to be announced by March 31st must express high confidence that the Iranians have accepted what they must do if such a regime is eventually to be put in place. If that remains unresolved, the deal will only provide ammunition for those like Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, who are already convinced that what is being cooked up is a “very bad deal”.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House