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03/06/2011 | The battle for Yemen - Tribes at war

The Economist Staff

Yemen is threatening to descend into tribal chaos.

 

AFTER four months of demonstrations and violent strife, Yemen may be sliding into civil war. Shortly after snubbing a third attempt at mediation by the six-country Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), informally headed by Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh sent his forces to fight the leaders of his country’s most powerful tribe, the Hashid. They have been bankrolling the opposition and helping to sustain the tens of thousands of protesters who have been camping out on the streets of Sana’a, the capital.

It was a dangerous fight to pick. The ensuing ten-day battle between the Hashid tribesmen and Mr Saleh’s troops has already left 200 dead. The two sides, now separated by a few buildings in Sana’a, are firing everything from pistols to anti-aircraft missiles at each other, as they jostle for control of government buildings and the airport. Led by the al-Ahmar family, Mr Saleh’s bitterest rivals, the tribesmen now control the interior and water ministries, the ruling party’s main building and one of the city’s main police stations.

Many of Sana’a’s residents are panicking. Long lines of cars and buses, with luggage piled on the roof, are filtering out of Sana’a and into the mountains that surround it. Those staying put are hoarding basic supplies, withdrawing their savings from banks, filling buckets with petrol and barricading themselves indoors.

Mr Saleh’s latest wrangling with the tribes, whom he has juggled for 33 years as the country’s ruler, is part of his last-ditch effort to prevent his downfall. On May 30th his troops in Taiz, Yemen’s industrial capital, 200km (125 miles) south of Sana’a, shot protesters besieging a police station, who hurled back Molotov cocktails. The army then sent in bulldozers and set fire to the protesters’ tents, which had occupied the main square for the previous four months. Fifty protesters, mostly young men, were killed and hundreds injured.

The brutality of the crackdown in Taiz may have scotched any lingering hope that Mr Saleh and the opposition would finally seal an agreement providing for his peaceful exit, a guarantee of immunity, and a handover of power to a caretaker president within 30 days, as proposed by the GCC. The day after the slaughter in Taiz, Yemen’s opposition coalition of socialists, Islamists and pan-Arabist admirers of Gamal Abdel Nasser sent a letter to the GCC secretariat saying they would no longer compromise with Mr Saleh.

In any event, it is unclear who might replace him. The GCC deal envisages elections within 60 days of a caretaker president taking over. As things now stand, a peaceful election is fanciful. It is just as likely that another strongman would push Mr Saleh and the remains of his regime aside.

The most plausible candidate for that role is Hamid al-Ahmar. One of Yemen’s richest and most outspoken men, he founded Islah, the beefiest opposition party. His nine brothers include Sadiq, the head of the Hashid tribe; Hamir, parliament’s deputy speaker; and Hussein, another powerful tribal leader. Last week Sadiq called Mr Saleh a “liar” and said he must leave the country “barefoot”.

The Ahmar family have around 400 men holed up in Sana’a in a gothic-style mansion, pockmarked with bullets and crammed with ammunition. They may hold their own unless Mr Saleh decides to launch a full-scale assault, including attacks from the air, as he has done elsewhere in the past.

Another influential figure is the president’s half-brother, General Ali al-Mohsen, who commands Yemen’s 1st armoured division as well as forces in the north-west. Some months ago he turned against Mr Saleh but during the latest fighting he has been lurking on the sidelines, keeping watch over the thousands of protesters camped out in Sana’a’s main square.

Even if Mr Saleh keeps his rivals in Sana’a at bay, swathes of the country are slipping out of his grasp. The rebellious Houthi clan now controls the area around Saada in the north. Zinjibar, a coastal city east of Aden, the former capital of the previously independent southern part of Yemen, has fallen under the control of some 300 gunmen that the government describes as al-Qaeda. Government forces have been pounding the city for several days, so far to no avail.

Although Mr Saleh has exaggerated the al-Qaeda threat, extreme Islamists are indeed steadily gaining more room for manoeuvre. Thanks to Yemen’s enfeebled central governance, rugged terrain and rampant poverty, they have been able to thrive. Mr Saleh’s American-trained counter-terrorism units have been unable to wipe them out.

All the same, Yemen’s branch of al-Qaeda proper, rather than the disparate guerrilla forces that are sympathetic to it, probably numbers fewer than 200 fighters. They have hunkered down with local tribes in Abyan, Shabwa and Marib, a clutch of mountainous provinces that have been dubbed “the triangle of evil”, and in the Jawf range. They embrace only a small minority of Yemenis but are self-ruling, determined and well-organised. The demise of Osama bin Laden, whose ancestors came from the Hadhramaut, in the harsh east, has had little effect on them.

In an effort to allay growing Western fears that Mr Saleh’s fall might prompt a terrorist surge, the opposition has announced that it would be willing to sign a year-long agreement with Western governments to combat al-Qaeda in Yemen once Mr Saleh goes. But it is not certain that Islah, which would probably play a big part in any emerging post-Saleh government, would keep its word. In the eyes of some Western analysts, it has links with various jihadist groups.

Yet Mr Saleh’s claims that he is a bulwark against al-Qaeda are falling on deaf ears, both at home and abroad. As the violence and chaos persist, the number of senior soldiers calling for him to go is growing. A former defence minister, Abdullah Ali Eliwa, recently issued a statement, signed by another nine senior officers, accusing Mr Saleh of “handing Zinjibar to terrorists” in order to “frighten people that, if he goes, Yemen will become Somalia.” The longer he stays, the more that grim prospect may become a reality.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
09/05/2010|
01/04/2010|
01/04/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
31/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
28/03/2010|
20/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House