Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
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Inteligencia y Seguridad  
 
16/02/2015 | Ukraine's ceasefire - Pseudo-peace

The Economist Staff

Pro-Russian rebels are still fighting for a key town, and Ukrainians are waiting for the ceasefire to fail.

 

HOPES for the latest peace plan in Ukraine were never high. Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, began playing down expectations immediately after signing the deal, saying it would be "difficult" to realise. Before a bank of television cameras at midnight on Sunday, he issued the order for his troops to cease fire. The first casualties came just twenty minutes later, when rebel rockets struck a village west of Luhansk, bringing a roof down on two elderly residents. By morning, Ukrainian and separatist leaders were trading accusations of fresh attacks. Ukrainian officials claimed there were more than 60 violations in the first day, a sharp drop from the pitched battles of the previous week, but an inauspicious start. "The pseudo-peace is advancing at full speed," commented Yuri Kasyanov, a prominent Ukrainian activist.

Most of the shelling is centered around Debaltseve, the beleaguered transport hub, where pro-Russian rebels refuse to observe the ceasefire. “The Minsk agreement doesn’t say a word about Debaltseve,” says Alexander Zakharchenko, the Donetsk separatist leader. Rebel troops made a final push to take the city during the two and a half days between the signing of the Minsk deal and the start of the ceasefire, an interregnum insisted upon by Russia and the separatists. American officials allege that the Russian military took part in the offensive, deploying artillery and rocket systems to the area. Now, rebel forces claim to have encircled the city and the thousands of Ukrainian troops stationed there. Mr Zakharchenko says he will not allow them to escape.

International observers sought to portray the day as a success, despite the tensions around Debaltseve. The chief of the monitoring mission from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said the ceasefire was holding "with some exceptions" after the first 12 hours. French President Francois Hollande called observation of the ceasefire "generally satisfactory". Similar statements rang out following last September's deal, when the fighting slowed without ever fully stopping. Those exceptions soon became the new normal, and boiled over into full-fledged combat again last month. Few on the ground expect anything different from this latest truce.

Even if the ceasefire endures, it is a far cry from a lasting peace. Vladimir Putin's paramount goal remains control over Ukraine's political future. Accordingly, on Monday morning the separatists began demanding additional measures not agreed to in Minsk, including a guarantee that Ukraine will not move toward NATO. The text that did come out of Minsk is fraught with vague formulations that threaten to gum up enforcement. Dmytro Kuleba, a senior official with Ukraine's foreign ministry, says the marathon Minsk negotiations will be "recalled as a cakewalk compared to further implementation efforts". The next step of the plan envisions both sides withdrawing heavy weaponry to create a buffer zone of some 100km. The thorniest issues – control over the border with Russia and the political status of the Donbas region – have been left for last.  

If the long-sought peace fails again, Mr Poroshenko promises to introduce martial law, and to respond swiftly. “If they hit us in one cheek, we will not turn the other,” he says. Midway through Sunday, Ukraine's interior minister announced that new armored vehicles were being sent to reinforce soldiers on the front. The possibility of American arms deliveries still tantalizes some Ukrainians who expect the war to continue. One nationalist Ukrainian parliamentarian summed up his priorities for the coming phase: "Keep calm and wait for American weapons."

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House