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15/03/2016 | The carnival is over - Brazil sees the biggest protests since the end of its military dictatorship

The Economist Staff

Protesters call for Dilma Rousseff’s head as markets and political allies waver in their support

 

DILMA ROUSSEFF had been bracing for a rough Sunday. Even so, the size of the throngs chanting “Dilma out” across Brazil on March 13th must have been a shock to the embattled president. The crowds of mostly middle-class protesters had been thinning since the first huge demonstrations a year ago, against her mismanagement of the economy and a bribery scandal at Petrobras, the state-controlled oil and gas giant, which has ensnared her left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).

No longer. In São Paulo the entire length of Avenida Paulista (2.8km, or 1.7 miles), the city’s main thoroughfare, was full. Protesters spilled onto parallel streets, forcing the police to close them off to traffic. Datafolha, a pollster, counted 500,000 people. (The police reckon 1.4m showed up.) On either estimate the numbers beat the previous record set in theDiretas Já (“direct elections now”) rallies, which helped topple Brazil’s military dictatorship in 1985.

In Rio de Janeiro, where last year’s protests were sparsely attended, huge throngs, probably also in the hundreds of thousands, swept onto Copacabana beach. Smaller-scale gatherings took place in more than 200 cities in all 27 states. The protests were peaceful, almost picnic-like: beer and vuvuzelas created the mood.

Four recent events boosted participation, to the glee of organisers, who had set the date months ago. On March 3rd a news report claimed that a PT senator arrested last November in the Petrobras probe had told investigators that Ms Rousseff tried to interfere with their inquiries (she denies this). More explosive still was the brief detention for questioning on March 4th by the police of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Ms Rousseff’s patron, who was president from 2003 to 2010. Prosecutors say they have evidence that in 2011-14 he and his associates had benefited from the Petrobras scheme, which involved Brazil’s biggest builders funnelling money to the firm’s executives and their political masters in exchange for padded contracts. He denies wrongdoing.

On March 10th São Paulo state prosecutors asked a judge to issue an arrest warrant for Lula in a separate case, alleging that he had concealed ownership of a seaside property. The former president denies this. Finally, the PT’s foes were angered by reports Lula may accept a ministerial post from Ms Rousseff. This would give him immunity, at least temporarily. Only the Supreme Court can order the investigation of cabinet members. Some justices have criticised what they see as judicial overreach by the crusading federal judge overseeing the investigations.

On Lula’s release (without charge) from his Petrobras-related grilling, PT leaders urged supporters to wage a “political war” against “coup-mongers”. There were fears of clashes between Lula’s detractors and his defenders, who considered holding counter-demonstrations on March 13th. In the end, the PT’s supporters mostly stayed at home.

The massive protests against Ms Rousseff may worry her less than what happened a day earlier. At a convention the centrist Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (PMDB), led by her vice-president, Michel Temer, barred members from accepting new government positions for 30 days while its leaders decide whether to leave the government. (Existing PMDB ministers can keep their portfolios for now.)

Should the PMDB quit the governing coalition, Ms Rousseff’s odds of surviving an impeachment motion against her (ostensibly over allegations that she used accounting trickery to hide the true size of the budget deficit) would diminish. Mr Temer tried to strike a conciliatory note. “Now is not the time to divide Brazilians,” he told party colleagues. This did not stop many of them from voicing loud demands of “Dilma out” (and, more reassuringly for their boss, “Temer for president”).

The PMDB will, as is its wont, follow public opinion rather than lead it. Perhaps more important is the growing despair of Brazilian business at the prospect of another three years of ineffectual government. With GDP down by 3.8% in 2015, and likely to fall as much again this year, bosses and financiers are for the first time calling for a change of government. The São Paulo state industry association, long critical of Ms Rousseff’s plan to reduce the budget deficit mainly by raising taxes, descended from its headquarters on Avenida Paulista to join the anti-government throng on March 13th. In an interview published on the same day in Estado de S. Paulo, a conservative newspaper, the local head of Credit Suisse, a bank, admitted there is a “market consensus” that Ms Rousseff is incapable of enacting the structural reforms needed to reduce the deficit and restore confidence. Her resignation would be the “least traumatic” way of ushering in a new leader, he said. The currency and the stockmarket have strengthened on hopes that Ms Rousseff may soon be forced out.

The markets’ optimism may be premature. The president has repeatedly said she has no intention of quitting before the end of her term in 2018. Any procedure that forced her out of office could lead to chaos. Mr Temer, who would take over if she were impeached, would struggle to reform the economy and the country’s rotten politics—not least because six senior PMDB congressmen, including Speakers of both houses, are under investigation in the Petrobras affair.

Both Ms Rousseff and Mr Temer could be ousted by the electoral authority. If it finds that their re-election campaign in 2014 was partly financed with money siphoned off from Petrobras, it could annul that election and call a new one. But the eventual winner would face many of the same obstacles as the incumbents do. Two potential presidents from the centre-right Party of Brazilian Social Democracy, Aécio Neves, Ms Rousseff’s defeated rival from 2014, and Geraldo Alckmin, the governor of São Paulo state , joined the anti-government marches. Both were booed. Protesters see them as belonging to the same self-serving political class as Ms Rousseff and Mr Temer.

The PT’s staunchest allies—trade unions and social movements—can disrupt normal life in a way that the opposition’s Sunday-afternoon perambulations do not. Should the PT government fall—or Lula be locked up—they could cause havoc. The president’s opponents have the numbers, but her friends can still cause plenty of trouble. 

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 



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28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House