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19/12/2012 | Venezuela - Preparing to pass the torch

The Economist Staff

Seriously ill, Hugo Chávez names Nicolás Maduro as his successor on the eve of an election for state governors.

 

WHEN campaigning for a new six-year term earlier this year, Hugo Chávez tried to persuade Venezuelans that he was cured of unspecified “pelvic” cancer, first diagnosed in June 2011. “I’ve forgotten all about that,” he bragged, just days before the election on October 7th, which he won with 55% of the vote. He then disappeared from view, except for an occasional, carefully staged broadcast. But on November 27th he left for medical treatment in Havana, returning briefly last weekend with a very different story—one that would seem to presage his imminent retirement from his country’s politics, and perhaps from life itself.

“It is absolutely imperative that I undergo surgery in the next few days,” a sombre Mr Chávez said in a broadcast address to the nation late on December 8th. Tests had shown that “malignant cells [had] reappeared” where tumours had twice before been removed. For the first time he spoke of the need to anticipate “any unforeseen circumstance” that might prevent him from continuing as president. In an apparent desire to forestall jockeying for the succession, he named his vice-president and foreign minister as his political heir. “My firm, full—like the moon is full—absolute and total opinion…is that you should elect Nicolás Maduro as president of the republic,” he declared, before swiftly returning to Havana.

Mr Chávez underwent a six-hour operation on December 11th, which a grim-faced Mr Maduro said was “successful” but “complex, difficult and delicate”. Mr Chávez’s new term does not officially begin until January 10th. Whether he will be fit enough for the inauguration is unclear. Should the president die or be permanently unable to do the job at any point in the first four years of his term, the constitution says that a fresh election should be held within 30 days.

Mr Maduro would be the candidate of the ruling United Socialist Party (PSUV). Under the constitution, the speaker of the national assembly, Diosdado Cabello, a former army lieutenant and a rival of Mr Maduro’s, would take over as interim president. The parliament is due to elect a new speaker in early January, though it seems likely that Mr Cabello will retain the job.

Although Mr Cabello’s association with Mr Chávez goes back to their army days, Mr Maduro this year emerged as the heir-apparent. A former bus driver and trade-union leader, he has been a close ally of the president’s ever since Mr Chávez entered politics after being jailed for leading a failed military coup in 1992. Before becoming foreign minister in 2006, Mr Maduro chaired the National Assembly. He is a physically imposing man with a thick, black moustache. Unlike many in the president’s inner circle, he has an affable manner and is seen as a conciliator. That has led to his being dubbed a “moderate”, though his politics are of the radical left. Crucially, he is known to be favoured by the Cubans, Mr Chávez’s closest allies.

The political impact of these events will be tested on December 16th, when Venezuelans go to the polls again, this time to elect 23 state governors and state legislators. Some analysts believe the news will boost turnout on both sides of Venezuela’s deep political divide. Supporters of Mr Chávez will be voting for candidates hand-picked by the president. Aides have urged them to send him a morale-boosting message by voting. But the opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) alliance is likely to be reinvigorated by the prospect of another shot at the presidency.

Attention will focus on the state of Miranda, which includes much of the capital, Caracas. Its governor, Henrique Capriles, who is standing for re-election, was the opposition’s presidential candidate in October, winning 44% of the vote. If he can win his state, he will be the natural candidate for the MUD in any presidential rerun.

The bigger question posed by the president’s illness is whether chavismo—a mix of populist nationalism and statist socialism—can continue to dominate Venezuela without Mr Chávez himself. Opinion polls suggest that Mr Capriles is more popular than any potential chavista candidate other than Mr Chávez. Mr Maduro was appointed, not elected, as vice-president after the October election. But his crowning as the president’s heir may well alter the equation. He might have a strong chance in an election conducted in the shadow of a dead or dying Mr Chávez, especially if the MUD does poorly in the regional elections.

Whoever ends up running Venezuela will face some tough economic decisions. The government cranked up public spending to unsustainable levels during this election year. Having grown by around 5% this year, the economy is likely to slow. Mr Chávez has scotched expectations of an early devaluation, which would raise the local-currency value of the government’s oil revenues, allowing it to reduce a budget deficit estimated at 14.7% of GDP this year by the Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister company. Inflation, at 18%, is likely to rise next year, even though the president has similarly jibbed at raising the (massively subsidised) price of petrol.

If Mr Maduro does take over, his other main battle will be to prevent factional fighting within chavismo, hitherto held in check only by Mr Chávez’s personal authority. As a civilian, Mr Maduro would be at a disadvantage in dealing with the armed forces, which Mr Chávez has turned into the military wing of the PSUV. As a radical leftist, he would be mistrusted by pragmatists, who include many army officers and newly enriched chavista businessmen, whose leader is Mr Cabello. For now, however, all eyes in Venezuela are on a sickbed in Havana.

The Economist (Reino Unido)

 


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12/03/2010|
08/03/2010|
07/03/2010|
06/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
28/02/2010|
21/02/2010|
19/02/2010|
14/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
28/01/2010|
25/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
16/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
10/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
03/01/2010|
17/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
28/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
21/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
18/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
30/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
11/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
10/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
04/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
27/09/2009|
22/09/2009|
20/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
18/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
06/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
26/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
15/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
19/07/2009|
19/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
18/07/2009|
27/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
22/03/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
27/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
17/01/2009|
11/01/2009|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
06/12/2008|
23/11/2008|
23/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
16/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
04/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
03/11/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
24/10/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
15/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
06/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
05/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
01/09/2008|
22/08/2008|
22/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
16/08/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
28/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
19/07/2008|
24/05/2008|
24/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
03/05/2008|
29/04/2008|
11/02/2008|
05/01/2008|
09/12/2007|
18/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
10/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/11/2007|
06/09/2007|
26/08/2007|
25/08/2007|
11/07/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
19/05/2007|
24/04/2007|
24/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
14/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
05/04/2007|
28/02/2007|
28/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
05/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
04/02/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
29/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
11/01/2007|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
27/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
17/11/2006|
30/09/2006|
28/07/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
12/04/2006|
06/03/2006|
21/02/2006|
17/02/2006|
31/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
28/12/2005|
31/10/2005|
26/09/2005|
29/08/2005|
11/08/2005|
08/08/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
24/06/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|
03/04/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House